“Information: the negative reciprocal value of probability.” – Claude Shannon.
In a sport that is constantly under the microscope and seemingly all probabilities are calculated, how can you ever come out a winner?
The answer is simple, with two choices. You can either hand-build lineups and play for fun, or you need to pay up and gain access to simulators. These simulators also need additional information other than the ‘factory settings’ they default to you. The latter requires massive monetary investments and commitment to using the tools given to you.
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I want to show you how to create projections and help you become non-biased in your lineups. This is an easy trick if you do not want to pay for additional tools or information. All you need to do is go to this site: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/plays-per-game
Total plays per game is a terrific metric you can look at and understand. A team does not have to be high-scoring to net effective results in fantasy. Opportunity and targets are what pay you a king’s ransom. Once you have looked at the numbers, target the top teams in positions where the total over/under is high and even scoring.
If you are playing a correlated lineup, you want teams to push each other. For my picks this week, I will list players I am projecting to correlate in exploitable matchups. I am investing a lot into the cost-effective players of the Baltimore Ravens this week. With a combined cost of exactly $19,000, we get Lamar, Flowers, and Andrews. This leaves an average of $5,166 per player left to spend. We can find leverage outside the prime picks in a week with inexpensive RBs and heavy chalk.
Building on our core, we must find projections attracting the lion’s load share. KC is looking to be the highest-scoring team of the week, and I have must-own shares of two players: RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Rashee Rice—a total of $10,800 combined, averaging a bargain price tag of $5,400 per player spent.
Now we have $5,050 to spend per player, and we can increase it to $5,666 with the buy of the week at $3,200 for the Seahawks DST. Playing this defense will mimic the same feeling as finding money in an unexpected place. Arizona ranks 5th in rushing yards; it’s the only thing they are effective at. With RB James Conner out, we have seen the lack of production in the run game.
From this point, you can piece your lineup together with options like Terry McLaurin WR, WAS $5,400, and Jerome Ford RB, CLE $5,100.
Week 7 ‘Pick-Six’ Pics
1) Lamar Jackson QB, BAL $7,600
2) Isiah Pacheco RB, KC $6,100
3) Zay Flowers WR, BAL $5,700
4) Mark Andrews TE, BAL $5,700
5) Rashee Rice, PHI $4,700
6) Seahawks DST, SEA $3,200
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