When the student is ready, the teacher appears. I want you to know that sometimes trying your best and not succeeding doesn’t mean you have failed; that’s just life.
Last week left many of us picking our jaws up off the floor. The first half of the day was spent watching heavily favored teams lose from lack of production. Now you’re thinking; there is no way there will be a NY vs. NY Super Bowl, right?
The valuable lesson is this; you have to look at the data as polarities change. Understand that the NFL season rapidly changes, and you have to be able to pivot. Disconnect from the love of players, narratives, revenge stories, the team in past seasons, and other emotional attachments.
Continue to look at the data and your process. RB Miles Sanders was available for a pack of cigs and a bag of no-name chips in the draft this year. He is now 4th in the league for rush yards. Breece Hall is 6th in fantasy scoring for RBs. We knew he had potential (from his college data), and now he is showing consistency. People will say, “I don’t like the split carries, the Jets offense, the team, the matchups.” Stay focused, and look at the numbers.
Last Week’s DraftKings Picks:
1) Tom Brady QB, TB $6,300 – 13.19% of us were stung by a low-scoring Tom Brady and his 13.72 fantasy points. This was surprising as the offense was highly inefficient. However, Tampa has too much talent to be ignored; do not stray from them because of this. This week is an excellent matchup for TB12.
3 Tyler Lockett WR, SEA $5,600 – When I wrote Lockett would go total bull or bear, I meant it. Once his ownership percentage hit a number higher than Snoop Dogg (29.96%), he only wrangled in his two catches for 17 yards, which left us with 3.7 fantasy points.
4) J.K. Dobbins RB, BAL $5,500 – Injured and left the game.
5) Zach Ertz TE, ARI $4,900 – 14 points with a high 17.9% ownership. There were more targets in the red zone, but the offense could not convert.
6) Bengals DST, CIN $3,100 – 1 fantasy point. This is more embarrassing than Russell Wilson’s Subway commercial. But, I am going to move on and chalk it up to you can’t win them all after picking great defenses up to that point.
Week 7 DraftKings picks
1) Lamar Jackson QB, BAL $8,000
I like this play if you want a QB with no stack. This is great for cash games as you are not looking for correlation; you are looking at floor vs. ceiling. Lamar Jackson has proven that his ceiling is 40 points on any given Sunday. The Browns rank 30th in rushing DVOA and 31st in overall DVOA.
With J.K. Dobbins set to miss time and Bateman being banged up, I can see Lamar running like Forrest Gump in this game. If you are looking at tournament play, Burrow and Herbert have top value for stacking points this week.
2) Ezekiel Elliott RB, DAL $6,000
APA (Adjusted Points Against) shows Dallas has a massive leg up over all other matchups this weekend. The League average is 20.6, and the Cowboys are in first place with a +5.3. Ezekiel Elliott has 94 rushing attempts putting him in 7th place. With these opportunities, he is taking advantage and has 4.1 YPC.
To finish the cake, we must add eggs. That’s the Lions DST, who have been getting cracked for 30.28 fantasy points a game, placing them as the 2nd worst team against RBs. With Dak’s first game back, I can see them leaning on the running game to limit his usage.
3) Tee Higgins WR, CIN $6,400
Both of the Falcons’ CBs are out this game. The dirty birds allow the 5th most fantasy points to WRs. Nobody throws the ball more than the Bengals. You see how this is getting better by the second. Ja’Marr Chase will have high ownership, and Tee Higgins’s production is equally impressive. He is ranked 21st in fantasy points for WRs and missed two games. Chase also comes with a price tag of $8,200.
4) D.J. Moore WR, CAR $4,900
D.J. Moore walked into work this week like Will Smith in the Fresh Prince finale, looking around in an empty room. Moore already had a 25.3% target share, and they are expected to get behind in this game. There will be plenty of passing because the Buccs dominate the run game but are completely average against the pass.
This is a flex play for me, as the value is intriguing. High volume targets at this price should always be considered. As per the intro, no matter how you feel about the Panthers, Moore has a high statistical chance of targets this weekend.
5) Cade Otton TE, TB $2,700
The top two TEs are the same every week, Kelce and Andrews. Foster Moreau at $2,800 is a top pick for me as well. The cost savings at TE is desirable, so you can punt one and pay up for skilled positions this week.
Tom Brady has always been statistically efficient when his TE is efficient. With Brate out, Otton will see the majority of the TE targets. Remember, this is not a play where you are looking for 25+ points. You are hoping for 4-5 catches with a score.
6) 49ers DST, SF $2,700
Nick Bosa and Jimmy Ward are back. When a healthy defense is this cheap, do not be afraid to take it because they are facing the Chiefs. RUN CMC just landed, and clock management with Jimmy G will be the game plan at home.
If you are not excited by this pick, the Jets are a great bargain price of $2,600 since Russell Wilson is out. Selecting the Chiefs DST will most certainly put you into a group of small ownership, allowing for different lineup construction.