In this series, we’ll dig into the numbers and examine offseason moves to assess whether some of fantasy football’s top names and most intriguing players are worth their current ADP.
Quick hits on Garrett Wilson heading into 2023
- Expected improvement at quarterback
- Going into second professional season
- New offensive coordinator who has coached Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers
- Clear cut number one receiver on team
- Tough defensive matchups in division
- Chemistry with Rodgers typically slow to develop
- A former Packers receiver to compete with
- An emerging run game
Garrett Wilson’s 2023 fantasy overview
Garrett Wilson is one of the many promising young wide receivers currently budding in the NFL. Last year, despite being on the receiving end of some of the worst quarterback play in the league, he played all 17 games and hauled in 83 receptions for 1103 yards with four touchdowns. In only his first professional season, he was good enough to be WR21 in PPR formats..
Now going into his second season, he will have a first-ballot hall of famer at quarterback and a new offensive coordinator who has coached both Rodgers and Davante Adams. The Jets also have not heavily invested in the wide receiver room this offseason, with the only significant addition being Allen Lazard, which means that Wilson still is above and beyond the best wide receiver on their depth chart.
As with any player, he still has his concerns though. He has to play against Tre’davious White and the Bills, Jalen Ramsey and the Dolphins, and Bill Belichick and the Patriots, all in the same division. These are brutal matchups against excellent defensive coaches and cornerbacks.
Let’s also consider Rodgers’s connection with new or young receivers. Take Christian Watson, for example, a young receiver who played for Rodgers last season. In his first nine weeks, he recorded 10 catches for 88 yards and zero touchdowns while missing two games. In the final eight weeks, he recorded 31 catches for 523 yards and seven touchdowns while missing zero games. This shows that Rodgers can have a hard time connecting with receivers he is unfamiliar with. So leaning on Wilson early in the season could potentially hurt you in the early weeks of the season.
The Jets also have Lazard on the team who Rodgers is already familiar with, so he could potentially take away some of Wilson’s targets. The Jets could also lean heavily on the run game next season with Breece Hall and Michael Carter as two promising young running backs.
How to play Garrett Wilson in 2023 fantasy football
Although there’s a chance Rodgers is slow to connect with his most talented receiving target, can a less-than-optimal Rodgers really be any worse than Zach Wilson was last season? Remember, Wilson still finished as the 21st-ranked wide receiver in PPR formats in 2022. That was with Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White at quarterback. You should expect no worse under Rodgers, even if the first few games yield less-than-stellar results.
I also wouldn’t be too concerned with the emerging run game in New York, as that has never stopped Davante Adams from putting up massive numbers in Green Bay alongside impressive performances by Aaron Jones. The excellent defenses he has to play this season shouldn’t be a big concern for fantasy managers either because receivers of Wilson’s caliber and surrounding talent tend to overcome these hurdles overall.
As with every player, there are risks, but the way I see it, Wilson’s floor is still as a top-20 receiver and his ceiling could resemble Davante Adams-like numbers as a top-three receiver. Wilson is someone I would be comfortable taking as early as a late second-round or early third-round pick, which isn’t too crazy given where his ADP is currently at.
Verdict: A potential league-winning receiver if he and Rodgers get on the same page early.