In this series, we’ll dig into the numbers and examine offseason moves to assess whether some of fantasy football’s top names and most intriguing players are worth their current ADP.
Quick Hits on Josh Allen heading into 2023
- Stellar rushing ability
- Zero injury history
- Elite talent
- Consistent production
- Potential overall team regression
- Drama with Stefon Diggs
- Injury concerns as a rushing QB
- Possible emergence of Bills run game
Josh Allen’s 2023 fantasy overview
Josh Allen is undoubtedly one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. He broke out during his third season in 2020 when he passed for over 4,500 yards and 37 touchdowns and also added eight rushing touchdowns. From there, he has not disappointed over his next two seasons, passing for over 4,000 yards in each while throwing for at least 35 touchdowns and with a fair amount of rushing touchdowns to serve as icing on the cake.
Furthermore, he has been extremely reliable, missing only one game in the past two seasons, which for fantasy purposes is one of the most valuable assets in the game. There isn’t much else to point out, but while it is a very short list, it’s only because he has been almost perfect over the last three seasons for fantasy purposes, clearly justifying his current ADP as the number two QB heading into fantasy drafts.
That’s not to say there aren’t some potential areas of concern. We saw in the playoffs that the Bills could barely beat the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins in the Wild Card Round and then absolutely get manhandled in the Divisional Round against the Bengals. This was followed in the off-season by the departures of stud linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears and defensive mastermind Leslie Frazier, the team’s now former defensive coordinator. A weaker defense could put more pressure on Allen and the offense, leading to some regression for the Bills as a whole.
Back on offense, there’s been all kinds of drama surrounding top target Stefon Diggs. Imagine a scenario where Diggs is no longer an option, who would Allen throw to? Gabe Davis? Dawson Knox? A rookie tight end? Khalil Shakir? While in my personal opinion, I don’t think Diggs will get traded, it’s not out of the realm of possibility this year and that possibility scares me. Even if Diggs does stay, will this affect the chemistry in any way between him and Allen?
Continuing to play devil’s advocate, there’s also the fact that Allen is a very run-heavy quarterback, which for fantasy QBs is fantastic as long as they remain injury-free. Despite his proven durability so far, he has been running a lot over his first five seasons and has taken many big hits throughout his career. He is now 27 years old, not getting younger, and my question is whether all of this rushing is sustainable.
I also think that the Bills’ front office has this on its mind too, which may be why they invested in more running backs this offseason. Allen commented on this himself back in April, speaking in reference to his physical play as a runner: “I can’t continue to do this. I know when I’m using my youth, I feel like I can. But over the course of my career, I’m gonna have to learn to adapt and change.”
This could ultimately add up to a significant blow to Allen’s fantasy value should his run game be cut back.
How to play Josh Allen in 2023 fantasy football
Players like Allen are exactly why I’m writing this fantasy outlook series on some of the bigger names on the draft board. I want to give you as much information to think about as possible and ultimately help you make your own decision, part of which is what your own gut is telling you.
My gut feeling about Allen is that there are too many question marks heading into the season to take him as the number two quarterback overall. There isn’t anything super concrete to knock him on, and he has plenty of phenomenal stats over the past three seasons to justify a high pick. With that being said, I can’t trust him enough to advise picking him as high as he will likely need to be taken in most drafts.
Verdict: Too Much Uncertainty