FanDuel Week 4 Lineup: For the first time this season, there aren’t a ton of strong positions for high-scoring game stacks. In doing research this week, I found that I’m going to have much higher exposure to a smaller amount of games. One of them is certainly the Saints-Giants game. As showcased below, I rostered a QB/WR/WR/RB game stack, giving me strong exposure to the Giants passing game and strong exposure to the Saints running/passing game. Regardless of what games you choose to play this week, make sure to stack your players.
A recent study came out by Rotogrinders.com on the first three weeks of play and the top 1% of players have consistently rostered a higher percentage of game stacks in comparison to the opposing field. By stacking players from both teams in a high-scoring game, you maximize your scoring potential and have the ability to outscore the majority of the field off of two to three connected plays. If it’s overwhelming to see many high-priced players at the beginning of each week, structure your lineups through game-stacks and you will be better able to make tough calls and play good correlations.
QB – Eli Manning (NYG) vs. NO – ($7,100)
It was pretty hard typing that name above, but Eli Manning is fantasy viable this week. He stands to face arguably his easiest task of the year. Three weeks into the new season is enough time to discover overall trends and understand what has changed from team-to-team. The Saints defense is simply not what it used to be. They’ve given up 34.3 points per game, allowing 346 passing yards per game, and have been highly susceptible to shootouts. With the Saints potent offense and susceptible defense, their game environment is optimal for fantasy success. Manning has had mixed success behind his offensive line, but this game environment is supreme and the Saints opposing defense will not pose a serious threat to his well-being. While it’s never 100% assuring to roster Eli Manning, you’ll miss out on a lot of fantasy potential by disregarding clear trends and deciding to fade non-idealistic players.
RB – Alvin Kamara (NO) at NYG – ($9,100)
Continuing on the idea of following trends, Alvin Kamara is someone who needs to keep being rostered. While it gets boring and further questionable to keep rostering the same player week in and week out, there’s a reason you should inevitably do it. The consolidation of production in New Orleans provides great opportunity and is unlike any other spot in the NFL. Alvin Kamara has seen 29% of the Saints target share through three games. He’s caught 30 receptions on 38 targets and has also run the ball 37 times. I could list off many of his phenomenal stats, but the point here is to keep playing him.
Often times in fantasy, you see an elite player become increasingly expensive and you get a gut feeling to pivot elsewhere. While there is merit to saving money for other positions, this gut reaction can often get us into trouble. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what price a player is, it matters how many points they produce. If they can guarantee you top level scoring, you should roster that player. Regardless of what it costs, you know that the points will be there and that’s not always an easy thing to find.
RB – Giovani Bernard (CIN) at ATL – ($6,400)
For the third straight week, I’m rostering a running back facing the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons gave up 15 receptions to Kamara last week and took yet another crucial defensive blow. Ricardo Allen (Safety) tore his achilles and is done for the season. If this defense wasn’t already banged up enough, they sure are now. With plenty of opportunity for Bernard, looming over a susceptible Falcons defense, his dual usage will come in great use as he works well with any game script. In the highest projected total of Sunday at 53.5 points, Bernard will likely be the chalk at running back, but I’ll gladly share ownership of him with much of the field.
WR – Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) vs. NO – ($8,600)
OBJ hasn’t had a great game so far, but he has compiled 34 targets in three fairly low scoring games. He finally gets to see a great game environment in which he has the potential for 150 receiving yards and multiple touchdowns. Marshon Lattimore will square up against Beckham, but this matchup shouldn’t be alarming. In a game where Manning should throw the ball 35-40+ times, Beckham’s talent should reside over the course of the entire game. With the kind of volume he demands, Beckham is an elite play against a Saints defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
WR – Jarvis Landry (CLE) at OAK – ($7,000)
With the amount of targets being thrown Jarvis Landry’s way, it’s hard to not like his value at $7,000. Landry is averaging 12 targets per game and now gets to face off in the slot against an exploitable L’eon Hall. Pro Football Focus gives Landry a 39% advantage in this matchup (the 6th highest grade of any WR this week). After Baker Mayfield stepped in at quarterback during the first half of the Jets-Browns game, Landry went 7/91/0 with him under center. More importantly, Landry was targeted by Mayfield three times in the red zone, specifically once from one yard out. In what is viewed by most as an upgrade at QB, Mayfield stands to raise Landry’s floor and ceiling. In a great position against a struggling Raiders team, this love connection should get off to a blistering start.
WR – Sterling Shepard (NYG) vs. NO – ($6,200)
As I mentioned in my Week 4 target forecast article, Sterling Shepard is in line to receive extra targets in a great game environment. With Evan Engram out, the consolidation of targets will funnel towards Beckham, Barkley, and Shepard. Through three games, Shepard is averaging 6.3 targets. With additional opportunities this week, in a promising game script, Shepard should see closer to 10 targets while being in a favorable amount of scoring opportunities. He is somewhat of a chalky play this week because of his low price and great value.
TE – Eric Ebron (IND) vs. HOU – ($5,500)
It pains me to advocate playing Eric Ebron, as he’s never been very good (even when he’s played good), but the tight end position is disastrous this week. Unless you decide to pay up for Gronkowski or Ertz, you’re ultimately playing a tournament dart that hopefully gets you 50 yards and a TD. The promising component of Ebron is that he received 11 targets last week and likely won’t compete with Jack Doyle for targets as he’s doubtful to play with a hip injury. The DFS industry as a whole has been fairly high on the Colts-Texans game and has labeled it a sneaky shootout. Regardless of your beliefs on that, Andrew Luck has been functioning through short throws and check downs and stands to utilize Ebron in exactly this way. With the marginal nature of the tight end position, you’re really just hoping for a TD, but Ebron has as good of chance as any to get one this week.
FLEX – Allen Robinson (CHI) vs. TB – ($6,500)
I was tempted to flex a WR this week with how much passing has been taking place. There clearly isn’t as high of a floor with a WR, but the ceiling is certainly there. In a GPP, it is somewhat comforting to know that you have an additional ceiling to chase. This week, Allen Robinson is a great example of what could be. He has an extremely high ceiling with his large target share against a Buccaneers team that has allowed these stat lines to opposing WR’s.
Week 1 – Michael Thomas: 16/180/1
Week 2 – Nelson Agholor: 8/88/1
Week 3 – Juju Smith Schuster: 9/116/0 & Antonio Brown: 6/50/1
At home, as expected 24.75 to 21.75 favorites, there’s enough potential for Allen Robinson to be a breakout play. Having yet to reach the end zone, this is as good of a spot as it will be for him to break the seal.
DEF – Browns (CLE) at OAK – ($3,500)
Defenses on the road aren’t ideal, but the Browns get to face a crumbling Raiders team that hasn’t won a single game. Yet to find any sort of consistency, the Raiders have looked many different forms through the first three weeks and have turned the ball over 5 times. The Browns have held the 5th best pass defense and the 10th best run defense while playing fairly good offense. They’ve forced 9 sacks and recovered 9 fumbles. With this kind of defensive activity, against such a struggling team, I like the odds of the Browns scoring a defensive touchdown in this one. Even if they don’t, there should be enough activity to produce a healthy fantasy total. At this discounted price, I like the value being given.