Quarterback and Tight End Bust Candidates: In the third and final part of my players to avoid series, I look at quarterbacks and tight ends with risk that is not completely factored into their current cost. Last year, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Eifert, and Martellus Bennett disappointed fantasy owners who paid a premium on them. Which players have similar bust potential this year?

[Also See: Running Back Busts | Wide Receiver Busts]

Deshaun Watson – Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson’s rookie campaign was nothing short of spectacular. He was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback from weeks 2-7 last year, averaging more than 26 points per game in standard leagues. However, he should be avoided at his current ADP of QB2 because of impending regression.

Deshaun Watson finishes as a top 3 fantasy quarterback in 2018.

— Sablich Brothers (@5thDownFantasy) August 24, 2018

Last year, Watson became the third quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger to post a touchdown rate higher than 9.0 percent. His 9.3 percent rate ranked second all-time only behind Peyton Manning’s legendary 2004 season. For reference, the average touchdown rate among qualified quarterbacks last year was 4.3 percent. Since the NFL-AFL merger, only 13 quarterbacks have posted a touchdown rate higher than 8.0 percent (Watson and Mark Rypien both had a season above 8.0 percent, but they did not qualify according to the NFL’s criteria because they did not attempt enough passes). In the season immediately following their historic year, these 13 players posted an average touchdown rate of 5.3 percent. Watson’s touchdown rate will torpedo this year, and his fantasy value will go down with it.

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Watson’s ADP is ahead of some perennial high-end QB1s right now, such as Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, and Drew Brees. With only six career starts under his belt, there is no reason to take Watson over any of them. Take the multiple-year sample of QB1 performance with the aforementioned group and avoid Watson at all costs in fantasy drafts.

Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles

Before an ACL tear ended his season, Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate on the NFL’s best team. Totaling 35 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, Wentz finished as the No. 5 fantasy quarterback in 2017 despite missing the final three games of the season. Heading into the 2018 season, Wentz’s ADP is in the seventh round of Fantasy Football Calculator mock drafts. Due to an unsustainable touchdown rate and the replaceability of the quarterback position in fantasy football, there are better options than Wentz at his current ADP.

Wentz posted a touchdown rate of 7.5 percent last year, tops in the league among qualified quarterbacks (with only 204 pass attempts, Watson did throw enough passes to meet the NFL’s criteria). Since 2000, there have been eight seasons in which a quarterback had a touchdown rate of at least 7.5 percent. None of them replicated the feat the following season. Granted, Wentz’s gaudy touchdown rate puts him in elite company – Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tony Romo all make the list – which bodes well for his future, but he still only has one season of elite performance under his belt.

Given the replaceability of the quarterback position in fantasy football, it’s better to wait on the position altogether and take a flex-worthy player – such as Randall Cobb – instead. At Wentz’s seventh-round ADP, there are numerous running backs and wide receivers available with the potential to be weekly fantasy starters. There’s no point in taking a quarterback so early when there are startable options available in the double-digit rounds.

Furthermore, Wentz’s status for the beginning of the season is still up in the air. The Eagles hope to have him back for Week 1 against the Browns, but there is no point in rushing their franchise quarterback back and risking further harm. With all the risk factors surrounding Wentz this year, he is a fade at his seventh-round ADP in fantasy football drafts this year.

Jimmy Graham – Green Bay Packers

In 2017, Jimmy Graham averaged the fewest yards per target of his career, totaled the fewest receiving yards since his rookie season, and failed to top 100 targets for the third consecutive season. Graham salvaged his fantasy value by leading the NFL in targets inside the 10 en route to a position-high 10 touchdowns.

In free agency, Graham teamed up with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, adding another weapon to the Packers’ red zone arsenal. While Green Bay is the best landing spot possible for an otherwise inefficient touchdown-dependent tight end, there are reasons to be concerned about Graham’s fantasy outlook for 2018. First of all, Graham’s game speed fell off dramatically last year. According to airyards.com, Graham’s Fastness Above Positional Average (FAPA) dropped from 11.7 in 2016 to -3.9 in 2017, meaning Graham had below average speed for a tight end last season.

For a tight end who has relied on athleticism his entire career, this is a concerning trend. Combined with decreased efficiency in other areas, this indicates that Graham is nothing more than a red zone threat at this point in his career.

Even in Green Bay, there might not be enough red zone targets for Graham to live up to his cost. Davante Adams commanded the second-highest red zone target share in the league last year – behind only Graham – and already has a proven rapport with Rodgers. As the new player in town, Graham will struggle to unseat Adams as the Packers No. 1 red zone receiving threat. While other fantasy owners are salivating over the touchdown upside with Graham, remember that touchdowns are almost impossible to predict on a year-to-year basis. Of all the tight end stats that 4for4’s TJ Hernandez tested for predictability, total red zone targets, red zone touchdown rate, and red zone target share were the three least predictable on a yearly basis.

Graham’s Fantasy Football Calculator ADP is TE4, ahead of tight ends in line for much more volume, such as Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker. I’d rather bet on the targets than the touchdowns, so I’m avoiding Jimmy Graham at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts.

Trey Burton – Chicago Bears

Trey Burton’s ADP has exploded this offseason following a change of scenery. After throwing a touchdown to Nick Foles in one of the Super Bowl’s most memorable plays ever, Burton joined the the new-look Chicago Bears in free agency. With Matt Nagy calling the shots in Chicago and a full offseason for Mitchell Trubisky to learn how to be an NFL quarterback, the Bears are garnering hype in the media as the league’s next breakout team. There are reasons to be concerned about Burton though, especially at his eighth-round ADP.

According to Pro Football Focus, there have been 15 tight ends who have switched teams and ranked in the top 24 in ADP at the position since 2010. Of those 15, none of them outperformed their ADP that year.

Furthermore, Adam Shaheen (who is expected to be back for Week 1 despite a scary-looking injury in Chicago’s second preseason game) is still there to vulture some snaps from Burton, especially in the red zone. At 6’3” and 236 pounds with a 23rd percentile catch radius, Burton is undersized for an NFL tight end. Shaheen is a 6’6” behemoth with a 60th percentile catch radius. Near the goal line, the Bears could put Shaheen on the field to utilize his size, athleticism (77th percentile SPARQ-x score), and blocking prowess, leaving Burton on the sideline in heavy sets. If the Bears do make Shaheen their red zone tight end, Burton’s touchdown upside is limited as a between-the-20s receiving tight end. Given the history of disappointment when tight ends change teams and the underappreciated role Shaheen will have in the Bears offense, Burton is a fade at his current ADP of TE10.