Fantasy Football Sleepers, Running Back: I recently looked at running backs to avoid at their current cost. Now I’ll examine five mid-round running backs to target in fantasy football leagues this year.

[Also See: 5 Backup Running Backs to Target In Your Fantasy Draft]

For the most part, we want to chase volume with mid-round runners. According to 4fo4’s TJ Hernandez, touches per game is the second-most predictable stat for running backs. Furthermore, touches are most correlated to fantasy production.

With that in mind, we want to target running backs who are in line for significant volume. Most running backs expected to receive a bell-cow-level workload get picked within the first three rounds of fantasy football drafts, but some workhorse-types slip through the cracks.

Lamar Miller – Houston Texans

If D’Onta Foreman was healthy, Houston’s backfield would be a full-on running back by committee that all fantasy owners would avoid. However, Foreman tore his Achilles in the second half of last season and might start the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which would make him unavailable to the Texans for at least the first six weeks of the season. If that happens, Miller is a workhorse running back in one of the league’s burgeoning offenses.

With Deshaun Watson healthy last year, Miller was a high-end RB2, totaling 60.2 rushing yards per game and four touchdowns in six games. While Watson’s efficiency will take a step back this year, he is an obvious upgrade over the Tom Savage and TJ Yates combination the Texans had to roll out most of the year. Miller’s fantasy value depends completely on Foreman’s health.

If Foreman starts the year on the PUP list, Miller is a value at his fourth-round ADP. If Foreman is active to start the season, Miller has bust potential. However, 36 percent of players to suffer a torn Achilles never return to the NFL, and the average recovery time is 11 months. numberFire’s Joe Redemann found that Achilles injuries are the most devastating injury a running back can have and noted that no running back has ever fully recovered from a torn Achilles.

With Foreman battling the most brutal injury a running back can suffer, Miller is in line for a significant workload, and he is a running back to target in the fourth round of fantasy football drafts.

Royce Freeman – Denver Broncos

In the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected Oregon running back Royce Freeman, presumably making him their starting running back right from the get-go. Freeman was a four-year starter at Oregon, totaling 5,621 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry during his time as a Duck.

Freeman is a jack-of-all-trades running back without a particular niche – he finished between the 58th and 72nd percentile in college dominator rating, college yards per carry, college target share, and SPARQ-x – so he has the skillset to play all three downs in the NFL.

In Denver, Freeman’s only competition for touches comes from Devontae Booker, who ranked 44th among running backs in evaded tackles per touch last year. Most likely, Booker will be relegated to the third-down role while Freeman works as the first- and second-down grinder. The Broncos have the most vacated carries in the league with 314, and Freeman has a prime opportunity to step in as Denver’s workhorse running back. With a clear path to opportunity, Freeman looks like a value in the fourth round of fantasy football drafts.

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Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders

During the second half of last season, Marshawn Lynch was the No. 11 running back in fantasy football, a complete 180 from his disappointing first half. Not only that, he led all running backs in evaded tackles per touch over the course of the full season according to PlayerProfiler. Lynch had the second-most broken tackles in the league with 99 (6.6 per game), finished sixth in yards created, and averaged the third-most yards created per carry.

Put simply, Lynch didn’t miss a beat in his return to the football field after a one-year hiatus. With that said, Lynch averaged fewer than two targets per game, so his value drops significantly in PPR formats. In standard leagues, however, Lynch is the clear No. 1 running back behind the seventh-best offensive line in football.

The Raiders signed Doug Martin this offseason, but Martin was the least-efficient running back with at least 100 carries last year by defense-adjusted value over average. Although Lynch’s mileage is a concern (2,351 career carries), he’s shown no signs of slowing down and is an underrated RB2 candidate at his RB24 ADP in standard formats.

Rex Burkhead – New England Patriots

There are reasons to be concerned about Rex Burkhead in 2018. To start, he’s already dealing with a tear in his knee, unwelcome news for a player who missed six games due to injury last season. If he is healthy – and he’s expected to play Week 1 against Houston – Burkhead offers sneaky upside in the sixth round of fantasy football drafts. Burkhead finished 11th in the NFL in goal line carries per game last year, and reports out of New England peg him as Bill Belichick’s goal line running back of choice for 2018. That’s a valuable role in an offense that has finished in the top four in scoring for eight consecutive seasons.

Additionally, Burkhead offers underrated production as a receiver. The Nebraska product averaged three receptions per game last year, 19th among running backs. Action Network’s Ian Hartitz noted that Burkhead ran 18 percent of his routes as a wide receiver last year, the third-highest clip among running backs. Over the last three seasons, the Patriots have ranked third, fifth, and sixth in passing attempts thrown to running backs. With a shaky wide receiver group behind Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan, New England could throw to their running backs even more than usual. Burkhead is clearly a net positive in the receiving game, making him an even savvier pick in PPR formats.

For Burkhead, it all comes down to health. His role as New England’s goal line back and prowess as a receiver make him relevant if he’s healthy, but a tear in his knee this early in the season is concerning. However, he has practiced the last few days and is on track to play Week 1, so I’m buying Burkhead at his sixth-round cost despite injury concerns.

Tevin Coleman – Atlanta Falcons

The last two seasons, Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman has finished as the RB19 and RB22. Heading into 2018, Coleman’s ADP is RB32. That identifies him as a value right away. Coleman’s red zone usage gives him the potential to hit paydirt multiple times in any given week, upside that is unmatched by other seventh-round running backs. Coleman totaled 27 red zone touches last season, which placed him 21st in the league even though teammate Devonta Freeman operated as Atlanta’s primary red zone back with 39 red zone looks.

Furthermore, the Atlanta running back duo’s usage has converged over the last few seasons, as illustrated in the charts below.

Clearly, the Falcons have made a concentrated effort over the last two seasons to limit Freeman’s usage while getting Coleman more involved. Considering Freeman has suffered three concussions in the last three seasons – including two in 2017 – the converging usage makes sense in Atlanta’s effort to keep Freeman healthy.

Even as the No. 2 running back, Coleman is a value (as shown by two consecutive RB2 seasons), but the sky’s the limit if Freeman misses any time. In the seventh round of fantasy football drafts, Coleman is a slam dunk low-end RB2 or flex option with RB1 upside should Freeman get injured.