Streaming Defense Week 7: A few fantasy D/ST options to consider this week, including a Giants squad that we GUARANTEE will score a defensive TD this week.
I believe that as a fantasy analyst, it is important to show your readers how effective you actually are at your job. So many times I read articles online about certain fantasy players and wonder how the analyst come up with their “guesses”. Also, when I do take their advice and it doesn’t work out, I start to think about how many other “guesses” they have gotten completely wrong.
With fantasy being tough to predict, there is always going to be those streaming options that bust (such as the Atlanta and Kansas City defense against the Colts), but I believe the analyst needs to be right much more than wrong, otherwise why are people still reading their work?
I am writing this because for one, I started Gardner Minshew over Aaron Rodgers last week because three trustworthy sources told me too (yeah, I know, I’m an idiot), and also to show my readers how effective I am as a defensive streaming analyst.
Over the past six weeks, the defenses written about in this article have averaged over 12 points per game. If you look at the number one streaming option I have every week, that number is over 19 points. It is also important to know that when I write about defenses I keep these two rules:
- I have never picked a streaming defense against Miami (too easy)
- Almost all defenses written about are owned in less than 40% of leagues
Although I know that streaming in fantasy isn’t always the most popular option, you can’t deny that those numbers are impressive, especially for streaming options. So, maybe for next year’s draft, pick up a defense last and rely on streaming, much more efficient.
Defenses (D/ST) to Stream in Week 7
Mighty Giants: New York Giants
This week is one of the few where there are not a lot of quality streaming options available. The usual streaming defenses either have tough matchups or are on a bye. So although I just talked about how successful my streaming options have been, do not expect huge numbers this week. But I do still expect these two defenses to put up decent numbers, especially for an owner who needs a one week fill-in.
The New York Giants have been on a roll on defense as of late. Although the scoreboard does not reflect it, they have put up quality numbers against solid teams these past four weeks. Averaging 0.5 touchdowns, 2 turnovers, and over 3 sacks per game is a clear indication of fantasy potential. Coming up next on their schedule is the Arizona Cardinals.
Thought of as once an obvious streaming option, they have been doing surprisingly well and have been consistently putting points on the board. With Kyler Murray under center, the Cardinals look to have a bright future in front of them. But it is not the future just yet. Murray is still a rookie and hasn’t quite figured out how to avoid the sack. Sometimes he tries to make plays happen when they are not there, instead of just throwing the ball away, resulting in sacks. Over the past six games, he has averaged over three sacks per game.
When faced against above-average defenses (Carolina, Seattle, Detriot), he has averaged 1.3 interceptions per game and just under 6 sacks per game. With the Giants starting to look like an above-average defense, look for Murray to give up some sacks/interceptions this week.
Verdict: The Giants have been doing an excellent job creating turnovers and rushing the quarterback. Although Murray has great legs, he does not have the vision of a seasoned NFL quarterback yet. Recently I read that it is almost impossible to predict a defensive turnover in a game, that most of it is luck. This week I am making a bold claim that the Giants will score a defensive touchdown, GUARANTEED.
Prediction: PA: 14-20, Total Yards: 300-350, Sacks: 5, Fumbles:0, Interceptions: 1, TD: 1, Fantasy Points: 10-15
The Desperado: Houston Texans
Looking through the numbers, it was very tough to determine a second streaming option that is relatively safe. Both Green Bay and Detroit do have the potential to have good games, but both come with considerable risk. Green Bay is playing Oakland who has been hot and cold. Against Kansas City, they looked like a 2020 number one draft pick contender, against Chicago they looked like a division champion. Although I like Green Bay at home, they are banged up and playing on a short week while Oakland is coming off a bye.
Detroit also has an enticing matchup with Minnesota. Kirk Cousins and company have played well lately, but leave it to Cousins to play terribly against a divisional matchup. Against both Green Bay and Chicago, he threw for around 230 yards, only had one passing touchdown, while creating three turnovers. I think the Lions could cause more issues for Cousins, but there is the risk that Minnesota gets an early lead and relies on the ground game, leaving little for the Lions defense to capitalize on.
The Texans, on the other hand, have been having solid numbers for the past five weeks, including five points against the Chiefs, which is a feat on its own. I like their chances to pull ahead of the Colts with the development of a strong run game, matched with DeShaun Watson’s running ability and a strong core receiving group, leaving Jacoby Brissett to pass more, abandoning their run game.
Verdict: I do not expect Houston to blow the Colts out of the water, but I do believe they will win by 10+ points. If you are in a bind and need a defense, I would go with the Texans. If you believe you need a lot of points because you are a massive underdog, look more towards Detroit or Green Bay but beware of the risk that comes with it.
Prediction: PA: 10-17, Total Yards: 250-300, Sacks: 4, Fumbles: 0, Interceptions: 1, TD: 0, Fantasy Points: 8-10