When the dust settled, A.J. Green was the biggest fantasy football wide receiver bust of the 2018 season, according to our writer Mike Sullivan (@mikesully58.)

We’ve now reviewed this past season’s top fantasy football quarterback busts, as well as the most disappointing fantasy football running backs of 2018, and now we’re on to wide receivers.

Overall, there was some reliability, in terms of fantasy football production, at the wide receiver position this last year. Nine of the top 12 fantasy receivers heading into the year finished as a top-12 fantasy receiver (up from only six in 2017). If we look even deeper, 16 of the top-24 ranked receivers at the beginning of the year finished in the top 24, the same as in 2017.

Unfortunately, there were still eight wide receivers who were drafted as a top-24 option but who fell outside of that come year’s end. These are the players we will be focusing on. Like my other articles, we will take a deep look into the position and identify several players we can label as a fantasy football bust. Once again, we will be looking at players’ Average Draft Position (ADP) entering 2018, weekly performances, previous season performances and final rankings. Ultimately, the players we will be exploring are ones who were drafted as a top-24 wide receiver (most likely as your first or second option) but finished well below their ADP.

We will also be looking at receivers who appeared in at least eight of their team’s games. I left out players who were traded mid-season like Golden Tate, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas (all three finished outside the top 24). Also, a few of the players that made this list struggled with injury. This most likely impacted their overall finish and probably helped them make this list. However, like I have said before, we will be labeling players as busts who fell significantly short of our expectations at our fantasy drafts as this as this, in my eyes, the definition of a fantasy football bust.

Scoring, weekly performances, and rankings are based on Points Per Reception (PPR) format.

Top 5 fantasy football wide receiver busts

1. A.J. Green (CIN)

A.J. Green entered the 2018 season with an ADP in the late second round (2.09) as the 8th receiver off the board in most drafts. He was able to play in nine games for the Bengals until he suffered a season-ending injury, which really impacted a lot of fantasy teams. With the injury and missing out on seven games, Green dropped significantly in the final season rankings, finishing as the 41st ranked receiver come year’s end. Many might say the injury impacted his overall placement, which is true, but that doesn’t discount the fact he did not live up to expectations.

And, if we dig a little deeper, we see there were troubling signs outside of his overall finish. In nine games he managed a stat line of 46 receptions, 694 yards, and six touchdowns. He cracked the top 24 five times and had about a 66% return rate as a top-24 wide receiver. Beyond that, Green managed just one top-12 performance, which comes with around a 11% return rate for someone you most likely drafted to be an WR1.

In previous seasons, Green was shown to be reliable, only playing in less than 13 games twice (2016 and 2018). In his previous seven season he averaged a 14.1 final ranking among wide receivers. This includes four top-12 (2012, 2013, 2015, 2017) and one top-3 finish (2013). In fact, Green has only finished outside the top 24 twice, which were seasons where he played significantly less due to injury.

Looking forward: Green is incredibly talented and, barring injury, I don’t expect him to make this list after 2019. If he can stay healthy, as he has mostly been able to do in the past, then he will be a strong fantasy asset to have. But his ADP has already dipped, sitting around 3.02 in early drafts, making him the 13th receiver taken off the board. I’m expecting a return to the top tier this season, making him a potential early-round steal.

2. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)

Larry Fitzgerald entered 2018 with an ADP in the late third round (3.09), or around the 15th wide receiver taken off most boards. Hopes were high that he could continue his consistent ways and still produce despite some changeover at the quarterback position.

Unfortunately, this was not the case, and Fitzgerald ended the year as the 26th ranked wide receiver. Fitzgerald appeared to be impacted by the poor play at quarterback and managed a stat line of 69 receptions, 734 yards, and six touchdowns — his first sub-100 reception and 1,000-yard season since 2014. With the Cardinals struggling as a whole, Fitzgerald also had the least total yards and yards per game average of his career.

If we look at his week-to-week performance, he finished as a top-24 wide receiver five times out of 16 games (31%). He managed to crack the top-12 only once with a seventh-place finish. When he struggled, it was rough to watch at times as he had 11 games with less than 50 receiving yards, seven games with less than 10 PPR points and seven games with less than three catches.

Looking forward: Fitzgerald will be 36 years old by the regular season kickoff, but his talent and skill set haven’t seemed to diminish as significantly as one might think. His fantasy stock appears to have taken a hit as his current ADP is in the late 10th round at 10.10, which is around the 46th overall receiver off the board. His fantasy success next year appears to be mainly in the hands of Kliff Kingsbury, but if his current ADP continues to be this low, he might make a good stash.

3. Doug Baldwin (SEA)

Doug Baldwin entered 2018 with an ADP in the early fourth round (4.02), or around the 16th wide receiver taken off the board. Baldwin had been the definition of reliable, finishing as a top-12 receiver in each of the last three years (12th, 8th, and 10th). Many people were hoping for similar production and possibly a solid return on a fourth-round draft pick. Unfortunately, Baldwin ended the season as the 45th ranked wide receiver. This was a 29-spot difference from where his ADP was.

Baldwin managed to appear in 13 games but appeared to struggle with injuries. In his 13 games he had a stat line of 50 receptions, 618 yards, and five touchdowns. Seattle’s shift to the running game also didn’t help. He managed his second lowest target total, second lowest yards total and second lowest yards per reception average over his entire career. Week-to-week, Baldwin managed just three top-24 wide receiver performances (23%).

Looking forward: Baldwin’s ADP has already taken a hit. At the time of writing he is falling to the sixth round. His injuries definitely plagued him this past season and despite him repeatedly stating that he was healthy, his performance didn’t seem to indicate that. Baldwin recently underwent shoulder and knee surgery, which hopefully gives him a clean slate coming into the 2019 season. If healthy, I expect him to bounce back, but it will also be important to pay attention to how the Seahawks manage their run game, which could continue taking away targets.

4. Chris Hogan (NE)

The Chris Hogan hype train was running full steam coming into 2018 and this came with an ADP in the mid fourth round (4.02). This made him around the 19th wide receiver off the board. Hopes were high after his 2017 season, which saw him rank as a top-12 receiver for the first five weeks. Owners may have also assumed, due to Julian Edelman’s suspension, that Hogan would step right in as Tom Brady’s lead target. It all seemed to line up for Hogan to have a breakout year, but he instead ended the year as the 70th ranked wide receiver. Hogan appeared in 16 games for the Patriots and got the start in seven of those games. He managed a stat line of 35 receptions, 532 yards, and three touchdowns. He managed just two top-24 performances (13%) and often disappeared at times for the Patriots. Hogan averaged a measly 6.31 points per game.

Looking forward: Hogan’s an unrestricted free agent, but rumors are he might be working on a deal to stay in New England. Currently, Hogan is most likely going undrafted, and that’s how it should remain unless some promising signs appear during camp (wherever that may be).

5. Marquise Goodwin (SF)

Another wide receiver who started to climb draft boards after 2017 was Marquise Goodwin after posting 56 receptions and 962 yards. He settled with an ADP in the fifth round (5.01). He started 2018 strong, benefiting from Jimmy Garopollo’s hot streak, and was on pace for a 15-game stat line of 87 catches, 1,152 yards and three touchdowns. Instead, he ended up with 23 receptions and 395 yards, though he did have four touchdowns. He finished as the 85th ranked wide receiver.

Injuries played a part (for himself and Garoppolo), but Goodwin still appeared in 11 games. When he did play, he managed significant reps on offense with three games of 90% or more snaps and seven games with over 60%. Despite the high snap counts, Goodwin struggled to deliver for fantasy owners. He managed just one top-24 weekly performance in Week 6, which made him a top-24 receiver approximately 9% of the time. He finished with the biggest difference from ADP to final ranking among top-24 wide receivers (nearly 62 spots).

Looking forward: The offense in San Francisco is going to be looking a little different come 2019 as Pierre Garcon is gone, Jimmy Garoppolo should be healthy and Jerick McKinnon is also slated to return. And with Dante Pettis beginning to show his promise, it’ll be interesting to see how Goodwin fits into the offense. I wouldn’t expect to see Goodwin finish as low as he did this year, but it depends on how this offense will shake out.