“You can’t just sit there and wait for people to give you that golden dream. You’ve got to get out there and make it happen for yourself.” – Diana Ross.
Every week I try and throw a little educational piece out before I go into my previous week’s results and this week’s selections. What I would like to do for our weekly growth experiment is for you to predict the over/under on the games before you look at the answer. This is an excellent way to predict how many points teams are projected to score and how close your finger is to the pulse. You will be surprised by how many you are close to after attempting this only a few times. Sometimes you will bite off more than you can chew, and you should have gone higher in other games. Nothing wrong with a better bird’s eye view.
Week 12 Review:
1) Geno Smith QB, SEA $6,000 – Geno finished with a sweet day of 328 yards and two touchdown passes, giving us 34.32 fantasy points.
2) Jeff Wilson RB, MIA $5,900 – Wilson had 39 yards and a touchdown before he exited the game. Injury took him out of the game and derailed what looked like it was going to be a big day.
3) Mike Evans WR, TB $6,700 – For Evans to have nine targets and only have two catches is a little perplexing. The chemistry was off, which is concerning this deep into the season. Evans slopped together a highly disappointing fantasy point total of 5.1.
4) Mark Andrew TE, BAL $6,500 – Andrews had an average day. Although the return on investment wasn’t there, we did get the safe floor of 11 fantasy points.
5) Mack Hollins WR, LV $4,400 – Hollins blew up for 16.3 fantasy points with his inexpensive price tag. This is the type of flex play you want to scrounge up every week.
6) Chiefs DST, KC $2,800 – The Chiefs finished with an incredible 11-point fantasy total. Sub $3k, and we hit over the starting fantasy point value of 10.
Week 13 ‘Pick-Six’ Pics:
1) Joe Burrow QB, CIN $6,900 – There is no better value play at quarterback this week. Burrow’s salary and predicted fantasy points have him at 2.4 times the value out of the box. Expect this to be like Bart Simpson with chalk with week. He is an elite QB under $7k vs. a very exploitable Chiefs defense, and his favorite toy just came back from the IR. Mixon is out, and I also love RB Perine; considering he is $6,000 coupled with his targets, he is an Austin Ekeler lite.
2) Aaron Jones RB, GB $6,900 – QB A-A-Ron is dealing with injuries, and this game has the 10th-best OL vs. the worst DL in the league. The Bears are banged up, and the Packers will look to run more to keep ball control and limit Rodgers’s throws. Even if the Packs get behind, Jones will have plenty of targets.
3) Amon-Ra St. Brown WR, DET $7,100 – St. Brown has commanded a 30% target share in the last three weeks. This could be his best game of the season. Two defenses that allow big plays and two offenses that have had big plays. If I select from this game, I see the Egyptian God holding the most points by day’s end.
4) Foster Moreau TE, LV $3,600 – This is a great value play. Averaging 4.6 targets per game, Moreau continues to be a safety throw for Carr. In the red zone, he is tied with Adams with two touchdowns, and Moreau has missed two games this season.
5) Nico Collins WR, $4,200 – Collins has had 2.43% of the team’s target share in the last three weeks. This is strictly a flex play that offers a lot of targets in a game that they will always be behind or barely ahead. Maybe the Texans will shock the world and roll the Browns with Watsons’ first game back from his suspension against his old team. Either way, Collins will play a role as the team’s #1 WR.
6) Steelers DST, PIT $2,600 – Any form of a passing attack is the Achilles heel of the Steelers. Luckily, the Falcons do not have one of those. They can shut the run game down, and I do not see the Steeler’s offense lighting up so high the Falcons will need to be throwing all day. Mariota is not a mistake-free QB, and the black & gold should be able to create pressure, sacks, and turnovers.