We’re already heading into Week 4 of the NFL season this week and hopefully, things have fallen in your favor. If not, hang in there and stay involved as there is plenty of time to make a comeback. Typically I like to review my sleeper picks from the last week, but I was not able to complete this article for Week 3 due to being on vacation.
If you’re new, I wanted to review what we are considering when we are using the word “sleeper”. For me, it is someone who I am expecting to finish ahead of their ranking heading into the upcoming week. For example, in Week 2 I listed Marquise Brown as a sleeper due to his Expert Consensus Ranking heading into Week 2 being ECR WR40. Brown finished as the WR12 on the week, which is exactly what we are looking for in terms of sleeper picks.
As mentioned before, I will utilize several factors when exploring who my weekly sleepers will be. I will be looking at ADP (Fantasypros.com ADP), weekly positional rankings (Fantasypros.com ECR), rostership percentages, and some betting info (to help give perspective on possible outcomes). When referencing scoring in these articles this season I will be looking at Half-PPR scoring and in terms of league size, I will stick with 12-team leagues.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Sleepers — Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (CAR) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Darnold and the 3-0 Panthers square off against the Cowboys in Week 4 in what should be an interesting game. The current over/under for the game is 50.5 and the Cowboys have been averaging 30 points a game thus far, while the Panthers are averaging 23.
The Cowboys are favored and should continue to operate smoothly on offense, which is why I feel like Darnold will need to continue to keep that offense moving in order to be competitive in the game.
Currently, Darnold is ranked as the QB15 in ECR this week and has looked good thus far averaging 296 yards a game, 1 passing touchdown, 1 rushing touchdown, and .33 interceptions.
Without McCaffrey, who is likely to miss this week, Darnold will be responsible for keeping the game competitive. Darnold has finished as the QB17, QB13, and QB5 in the last three weeks and currently sits at QB12 on the year. I feel like he has another shot at cracking the top twelve this week.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Sleepers — Running Backs
Zach Moss (BUF) vs. Houston Texans
Moss has started to get more involved in the Bills offense and has finished as RB16 (Week 2) and RB14 (Week 3). He’s averaged 10.5 rushing attempts, 43 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 2.5 targets, 2.5 receptions, and 19.5 receiving yards. His final stat line this week may not be the prettiest, but like Dawson Knox which I discuss below, I like the odds of Moss finding the endzone. He currently sits at ECR RB27 on the week. With his increase in usage and a positive matchup, I expect Moss to finish closer to his previous weekly ranks than his current ECR.
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) vs. Washington
Patterson may have dual eligibility as a wide receiver in some formats, but I am listing him in the running back section due to that is where is ranked on the fantasypros.com ECR. He currently sits at ECR RB38. Over the last few weeks has found himself more involved in the Atlanta offense this year, almost out of necessity. He has managed to finish as the RB5 and RB22 in the last two weeks with this increased involvement. He has averaged 12 total touches, 5.3 targets, 28.3 rushing yards, 51 receiving yards, and .66 touchdowns a game.
Patterson’s usage is what makes him appealing as a sleeper pick as he also returns kicks and has the ability to take one to the house (an extra bonus if your team counts return yards). His snap count has also increased in Week 3 to 42% (up from 33% in Week 1 and 2). If you’re struggling at the RB position or just need a flex-start, Patterson can return value and is likely to finish higher than his current ECR ranking.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Sleepers — Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Beckham returned to action in Week 3 and found himself receiving nine targets, which he caught 5 for 77 yards. He also received one rushing attempt, which he gained 10 yards on. He finished the week as the WR30 and is currently ranked as the ECR WR30 heading into Week 4. Beckham looked great in his return and was in on 64% of the plays. I expect the snap count to increase as well and he may need to be involved in what should be a good matchup this week.
The current over/under for the game is 51.5 points and the Browns are always in a position to attempt to control the clock with their run game. However, I feel like the Vikings will be able to put points on the board which will require the Browns to throw the ball. I expect Beckham to be utilized in the passing game and should outperform his current ECR.
Jakobi Meyers (NE) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Meyers had a decent Week 3 outing where he caught 9 receptions for 94 yards after being targeted 14 times. He finished the week as the WR19 and is currently ranked as the WR32 in ECR. He’s been decently involved in the passing game w/ 29 targets, 19 receptions, and 176 yards.
Meyers and the Patriots get to be hosts for the return of Tom Brady this week, which the Buccaneers are currently favored by 7 points. Outside of Bill Belichick pulling out some magic to slow down Tom Brady, I fully expect the Buccaneers to get out to a lead and the Patriots to be playing from behind similar to last week’s matchup against the Saints. This means we can probably expect a good chunk of targets going Meyers’s way. If it goes how I am expecting, Meyers has a shot at cracking the top 20 once again.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Sleepers — Tight Ends
Dawson Knox (BUF) vs. Houston Texans
Knox currently sits as the TE6 in half-PPR formats but is currently the ECR TE16 heading into Week 4 Knox has averaged 9.2 points over the last three weeks and has found the endzone twice now. The Bills should not have a problem with the Texans, but the Texans have still been averaging 22.3 points per game. I feel like Knox brings some upside this week.
As mentioned in previous articles, when looking for a sleeper tight end I want one who is on a good offense and has a chance to score a touchdown. Ideally, if you’re relying on sleeper tight ends, you’re hoping to get somewhere in the range of 8-12 points. This doesn’t help you win the week, but it doesn’t completely destroy your week like getting a goose egg might.
