Week 5 Target Forecast: What can we expect this week in fantasy football from some of the game’s top-pass catchers?
WR – Mohamed Sanu (ATL) at PIT – SUN 10:00 AM PT
One of the most forgotten wide receivers in recent weeks, Mohamed Sanu has subtly yielded nice fantasy output. With the emergence of Calvin Ridley, few people have noticed that Sanu saw 7 and 9 targets in his past two games. Producing a 10/147/1 stat line, Sanu has been utilized just enough to prove viable for fantasy purposes. This week, in one of the highest projected totals of the season at 57 points, Sanu will look to continue his steady volume. Facing Ben Roethlisberger at Heinz Field, with the Falcons enduring a slew of defensive injuries, Matt Ryan will once again have to air it out to match the high-scoring nature of this game. Sanu will benefit from the Falcons inevitable game script and see another nice target total.
Corey Davis (TEN) at BUF – SUN 10:00 AM PT
Corey Davis exploded in Week 4 after seeing 15 targets from Marcus Mariota. It was a nice sight as the projected breakout hasn’t entirely lived up to his preseason expectations. I would caution fantasy owners on expecting too many weeks like this, but I don’t want to discourage hope of Davis owners either. With the release of Rishard Matthews, there’s virtually nobody posing a threat to Davis’s target share (33.1%). Corey Davis and Dion Lewis combine for 52% percent of the Titans total targets. As there isn’t another receiver seeing even 15% of the looks, Davis is extremely solidified in his role. The main hit on Davis is the Titans lack of passing plays. They rank second-to-last in percentage of pass plays attempted, throwing the ball a mere 52% of the time. With this little exposure to a passing game, Davis has a monopoly on a very small operation. Exercise caution and understand that there will only be certain weeks where this little venture will produce viable fantasy production.
TE – Vance McDonald (PIT) vs. ATL – SUN 10:00 AM PT
Vance McDonald’s snap count has risen two weeks in a row (45% → 48% → 62%) while Jesse James’s snap count has fallen three weeks in a row (82% → 55% → 50% → 44%). McDonald has seen 5 targets in all three of his games played while easing back into Pittsburgh’s offense. The Steelers-Falcons game holds a ridiculous 57 point total this week, while the Steelers are projected to score 30 points. McDonald’s targets are of an elite nature when you consider his game script and the fact that the Steelers have now thrown the ball 76.9% of the time while in the red zone. With McDonald’s usage in all passing situations, you can expect a continued increase in snaps and targets in what is a phenomenal game environment for the 6th year tight end.
WR – Nelson Agholor (PHI) vs. MIN – SUN 1:25 PM PT
Nelson Agholor is trending in the wrong direction. Alshon Jeffery returned last week and immediately saw 9 targets. He displayed great rapport with Carson Wentz, catching 8 balls for 105 yards and a touchdown. While Wentz did target Agholor 12 times, it resulted in nothing more than 22 receiving yards. Game script was a big determinant in Wentz throwing the ball 50 times, but it’s not likely that he’ll need to do so on many weeks. With Ertz and Jeffery firmly planted as the team’s leading two targets, Agholor should settle back into his secondary role. It doesn’t help Agholor’s case that the Eagles are committed to the run and do so nearly 40% of the time. Expect his target share to continually drop.
WR – Dede Westbrook (JAX) at KC – SUN 10:00 AM PT
The Jaguars receiving core is starting to look like the Rams. Each week, one of their three receivers returns a very profitable start. So far, it’s been somewhat unpredictable, but trends are starting to emerge. Dede Westbrook is playing very strong from the slot. He’s the most reliable of the three options because of his role as a possession receiver. This week, Westbrook gets to face the Chiefs secondary. It’s well known that the Chiefs boast one of the worst passing defenses in the league, but it’s important to note that their main point of weakness is over the middle of the field. This bodes extremely well for Westbrook, as the majority of his routes function from here. He will face off against Kendall Fuller, who renders a 32% advantage to Westbrook this week (Top 10 at the WR position), according to Pro Football Focus. Coming off of 13 targets last week, in a game where Blake Bortles will look to keep pace against a high scoring Chiefs offense, Westbrook should see another high target total in this one.