Here are my Brilliant, Bold, and Bonkers picks for this week’s Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Cup Series race in Richmond.
Brilliant – These NASCAR drivers have the best shot to win in Richmond
Brad Keselowski
With very few finishes outside the top-10, especially in recent years, the driver of the No. 2 certainly knows his way around the Richmond track. Brad Keselowski is the only Penske driver who has yet to win a race this season, and this is as good a track as any for him to flex those veteran muscles and get that coveted first-place finish.
Wins at Richmond: 2
Top-5 finishes: 6
Top-10 finishes: 12
Denny Hamlin
Much like his teammate in the No. 18, Denny Hamlin has an impressive reputation at Richmond. But, it’s his “home” track, after all. Hamlin has been so close to victory this season, it’s almost painful to watch. He’s only finished outside the top-five once. After a heartbreaking third-place finish in Martinsville last week, I fully expect him to hit the track with engines blaring for his first win of the season.
Wins at Richmond: 3
Top-5 finishes: 13
Top-10 finishes: 17
Martin Truex Jr.
Far be it from me to argue with the hot streak—and Martin Truex Jr. is on one right now. Though his record here has been cringe-worthy in the past, something must have clicked around 2018 because it’s been top-five with two wins ever since. Plus, he has the pole for Sunday. It’s possible that the No. 19 will grab his third win of the season, so leave him in your NASCAR fantasy lineup for Richmond.
Wins at Richmond: 2
Top-5 finishes: 6
Top-10 finishes: 12
Bold – These are my NASCAR sleeper picks for Richmond
Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch has only finished outside the top 10 seven times since his first NASCAR Cup Series race in Richmond in 2005. With a total of 30 races he’s run, that’s the most impressive statistic I’ve seen for any current driver at any track. This makes me a believer that the No. 18 might have a chance at victory this week.
Wins at Richmond: 6
Top-5 finishes: 18
Top-10 finishes: 23
Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson has one win at this track and a pretty good record when he hasn’t had an accident. Larson started out the season a bit slow, then warmed up at Miami. He’s been steady ever since, with his first win coming in Las Vegas. Don’t be surprised to see a multi-win season for this new driver of the No. 5—it might just happen on Sunday.
Wins at Richmond: 1
Top-5 finishes: 2
Top-10 finishes: 5
Tyler Reddick
After an impressive second-place finish at Homestead, Tyler Reddick fell off the map for a few weeks. But with back-to-back top-10 finishes at Bristol and Martinsville, it seems like he’s finally warming up. He came in 11th on his last trip to Richmond, and this might be a good place for the former Xfinity champion to turn the warm streak into a hot one with his first Cup Series win.
Wins at Richmond: 0
Top-5 finishes: 0
Top-10 finishes: 0
Bonkers – Stay away from these NASCAR drivers in your fantasy lineup for Richmond this week
Kurt Busch
It’s been a long time since Kurt hoisted the trophy in Richmond. And though his numbers here are decent, it’s still been mostly top-10s for the driver of the No. 1 since 2015. Take a pass on this guy until we get to a better track.
Wins at Richmond: 2
Top-5 finishes: 7
Top-10 finishes: 15
Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman’s last trip to Richmond got him a 9th place finish, but other than that, it’s been a poor show. The newly-minted driver of the iconic No. 48 seems a bit lost this season and though I’m sure he’ll regroup at some point, this isn’t the track to do it.
Wins at Richmond: 0
Top-5 finishes: 0
Top-10 finishes: 1
Ryan Blaney
I’m all about the hot streak, but this track has not been kind to Ryan Blaney in the past. He already has a win this season, but Richmond is not likely the place for him to get his second. I think that sometimes the No. 12 is just a little too nice, and with so many drivers competing who aren’t, this will be a tough spot to get ahead and stay there.
Wins at Richmond: 0
Top-5 finishes: 0
Top-10 finishes: 0
