This week’s NASCAR fantasy picks for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Before we get too far along in the season, I thought I would talk for a bit about fantasy sports. Specifically, the weekly NASCAR fantasy picks that you find here on 5thdownfantasy.com each week.
Picking for fantasy sports isn’t always about picking the very best. Fantasy sports is tricky, and the very best person one week can be the very worst person the next. I’ve been making Fantasy NASCAR picks for many years, and I’ve only won the season one time. I came in second another time. I finished last once. And I ended up in the middle-ish for the rest of my years.
I played fantasy baseball for a few years, and that’s when I realized it wasn’t about having Manny Machado, Jacob deGrom, and Bryce Harper on your team. It’s more about having Yasmani Grandal, Jose Berrios and Scooter Gennett in your back pocket.
I choose my weekly NASCAR fantasy picks based not on who will absolutely win, but who has a good shot at winning or at least finishing well. I look at history, and we all know that history has a good chance of repeating. I also look at how a driver is doing. Slumps are slumps, no matter how good someone is at a particular track. On the flip side, hot streaks are hot streaks, even if they’ve never gotten a top 10 finish at the place they’re off to next.
I also make my predictions before qualifying, so this might come back to haunt me on tracks where starting position matters. And since I pick well ahead of pre-race inspections, it sucks when my Brilliant pick fails inspection three times and has to start in the rear.
Here’s a bit of a breakdown on how I make my NASACR Fantasy picks each week.
Brilliant
Are some of my weekly brilliant picks obvious? Yes. Are there other obvious drivers that I could showcase each week? Yes. Would it be fun to read about Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick every single damn week in this position? No. Besides, depending on your league, you can’t always pick the big guys. Sometimes the picks are obvious, sometimes curious, but always well-thought out. And sometimes, I’m right.
Bold
Bold picks are designed to help you understand that there are plenty of drivers out there with pure talent. Many of them could easily outrace Brad and Martin at any given moment. They might have the Vegas odds, or they might be a wild long shot, but these are drivers who show promise on the track each week. They have the potential to pull off something special, it’s just a matter of when. Besides, you need someone on your fantasy team besides the usual suspects.
Bonkers
I could certainly pick the standards each week for drivers who don’t typically finish well on any track, despite their talent. There are rookies, almost-rookies, and guys who just don’t have a fast car that I could plug in here every week. But how hard is that to figure out? Sometimes they’re obvious, but bonkers picks are for living on the edge. These are drivers who actually could end up in first on any given week, but probably won’t. This time.
It’s been an enjoyable season thus far, and I hope you continue to check in with 5thdownfantasy.com every week to see what I have to say, regardless if you follow my advice or not.
Last Week’s NASCAR Fantasy Picks: Recap From Texas Motor Speedway
Brilliant NASCAR fantasy picks:
Eric Jones – finished 4th
Chase Elliott – finished 13th
Martin Truex Jr. – finished 12th
Bold NASCAR fantasy picks:
William Byron – finished 6th
Ryan Blaney – finished 37th
Bubba Wallace – finished 23rd
Bonkers NASCAR fantasy picks:
Jimmie Johnson – finished 5th
Ryan Newman – finished 11th
Brad Keselowski – finished 36th
And now, here are this week’s Brilliant, Bold, and Bonkers NASCAR Fantasy picks for the first race of the season at the world’s last great coliseum. It’s the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway:
Brilliant
Kyle Busch
Wins: 7
Top 5 finishes: 10
Top 10 finishes: 15
Expect to see the number 18 in this slot for the next two weeks. He’s led over 2,200 laps here, he has his most wins here, and he’s about as hot as a driver can get right now. Unless he loses an engine, you’re going to see him finishing in the front.
Kurt Busch
Wins: 6
Top 5 finishes: 11
Top 10 finishes: 18
There must be something in the Tennessee air that revs the engine of these Vegas brothers. Kurt has almost as many wins at Bristol as his baby brother, and he’s led over a thousand laps. No one drives this track as well as someone who’s done it 36 times, and has come out on top in six of them; I expect the number 1 to get it done.
Kevin Harvick
Wins: 2
Top 5 finishes: 12
Top 10 finishes: 19
Since Daytona, Harvick hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in any race. There’s something that’s not quite clicking with this 4 team, but I’ll be damned if anyone can but their finger on it. I don’t know if Bristol is the place for him to come back to the winners’ circle, but you know he’ll have a great finish no matter what.
Bold
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 4
Top 10 finishes: 6
Stenhouse hasn’t had a great finish since Vegas when he finished 6th. But he loves this type of high bank, short track racing, and it seems like this could be the week to put him near the top. Look for pride in the 17 at Bristol.
Erik Jones
Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 2
Top 10 finishes: 2
I don’t know it’s this will be his winning week, but Jones has been good at this track in the past, and he had a great finish last week in Texas. Look for the 20 to keep his hot streak alive and have another good turnout on the short track.
Alex Bowman
Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 1
Top 10 finishes: 2
This kid has talent, and he’s racing for a great team, but he still hasn’t gotten his first win. He’s led some laps and he’s grabbed a couple of poles, but he’s still waiting to do that victory burnout. Could it happen this week? Chances are good that it could.
Bonkers
Martin Truex Jr.
Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 2
Top 10 finishes: 3
It’s only a matter of time before we get to the tracks where Truex flies. He’s not great on short tracks, and Bristol can be treacherous for anyone who hasn’t tamed it yet. Truex is the JGR driver who’s drying to get into victory lane, but he’ll have to wait a couple more weeks.
Kyle Larson
Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 2
Top 10 finishes: 6
Every time I make Larson a bold or brilliant pick, he lets me down. But I think he’s been letting himself down this season. He hasn’t had a top five finish yet, and only two finishes inside the top 10. He’s led a lot of laps at Bristol in the past, and he may do the same this week, but until the 42 gets back on track, it’s best to leave him on the sidelines.
Aric Almirola
Wins: 0
Top 5 finishes: 1
Top 10 finishes: 3
I’m heading out on a limb here looking at Double A’s stats. His average finish here is 23rd, which leads me to think that he hasn’t quite mastered this crazy track. I think that history repeats itself, despite the hot streak he’s been on. Next week, however, will be a different story.
No Comment! Be the first one.