The Daytona 500 was kinda boring—until it wasn’t. Suddenly, there were enough wrecks to take out my entire fantasy team, increase my heart rate, and make me shake my fist at the sky.
In true insane fashion, the 500 lived up to the hype with a winner we never might have guessed, though technically we should have because Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is no slouch on a superspeedway. Every year I stick him in the picks for Daytona and Talladega, but since he’s flown under the radar in recent years, I didn’t this time. Fool me once; that’s all I’m gonna say.
This week, NASCAR heads out west to Auto Club Speedway, a 2-mile track that opened in 1997. After the running of the Pala Casino 400 on Sunday, we won’t see this track again until 2025. Renovations and redevelopment will turn this long 2-mile into a super-short half mile, and that’s gonna take some time to complete. So savor the flavor and watch the boys go California Dreamin’ on this two-mile for the last time because when this turns into a short track, dream time will be a distant memory.
As the California swing begins, take note of my Brilliant, Bold, and Bonkers NASCAR fantasy picks for the Pala Casio 400 at Auto Club Speedway.
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Brilliant – These expert fantasy picks for NASCAR have the best shot at a win this weekend
Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is back. No question. If not for a late, ill-timed caution, Rowdy would have won his first Daytona 500, and it would have been well-earned and deserved. But there was a late caution, and the victory went elsewhere. But we saw a glimpse of a renewed spirit. Expect so much more when he hits a track where he has been so impressive in the past.
Auto Club wins: 4
Auto Club top 5s: 11
Auto Club top 10s: 16
Brad Keselowski
I feel like Brad Keselowski started to get comfortable at the end of the 2022 season, and he seems to have carried it over into 2023. There was a hot minute when it looked like he might win the 500 last week, and though it never came to pass, I still think he showed us a glimpse of the future. There’s potential here at Auto Club.
Auto Club wins: 1
Auto Club top 5s: 5
Auto Club top 10s: 6
Kyle Larson
Ya know, Kyle Larson did so much better at Daytona than I expected. This could mean a return to greatness or just luck of avoiding the messes. Maybe a bit of both. I think that the number 5 has a great opportunity to regroup and rekindle his fire at this beloved track in his home state of California on Sunday.
Auto Club wins: 2
Auto Club top 5s: 4
Auto Club top 10s: 4
Bold – Here’s my NASCAR fantasy advice on this week’s sleeper picks
Erik Jones
Erik Jones got knocked out of the 500 early, through no fault of his own, of course, but there’s less chance of that on a long, 2-mile track. I think that Jones will ride well, and if he has good track position to start, he’ll probably hold onto it through the race. He usually finished well here, and there’s no reason to think this will change, especially with his new teammate Gragson supporting him.
Auto Club wins: 0
Auto Club top 5s: 1
Auto Club top 10s: 3
Kevin Harvick
Not only did Kevin Harvick cause a major shake-up nearly 300 miles into the Daytona 500, but he managed to come away only slightly damaged and then finish the mess in 12th place. Like Twinkies and cockroaches, I’m convinced that this Bakersfield Boy can withstand a nuclear blast and come out better for it. Don’t count him out even once on this west coast swing, starting at Auto Club.
Auto Club wins: 1
Auto Club top 5s: 7
Auto Club top 10s: 14
Aric Almirola
This was never a great track for Aric Almirola—until he came to SHR in 2018. Since then he’s been off and running, with single-digit finishes three years running. Even if he doesn’t win the whole enchilada, though he might, history shows that he’ll probably get some stage points and finish well.
Auto Club wins: 0
Auto Club top 5s: 0
Auto Club top 10s: 3
Bonkers – Stay away from these drivers in your NASCAR fantasy racing lineup this week
Michael McDowell
Michael McDowell on a Superspeedway equals good; take him over to an intermediate two-mile and it’s a whole other story. He’s seen Auto Club 12 times and has not one top 20 among them. Hold off on the number 34 for this week.
Auto Club wins: 0
Auto Club top 5s: 0
Auto Club top 10s: 0
A.J. Allmendinger
Ouch. In 14 trips to Auto Club, Almendinger has some pretty poor numbers. Even though California is his home state, he might be better off when this track goes short in 2025.
Auto Club wins: 0
Auto Club top 5s: 0
Auto Club top 10s: 2
Tyler Reddick
To be fair, Reddick has only been here twice since he came up to the Cup Series. But, he’s not great on 2-mile intermediate tracks – between MI and Auto Club in the last three years, he has yet to crack to the top ten. Take a pass on the newest 23XI driver until we get to a track he’s more familiar with.
Auto Club wins: 0
Auto Club top 5s: 0
Auto Club top 10s: 0
