You never know who is going to crawl out of a hole in the three-wide line and creep in at the last minute to win a race, despite their lousy record at a track, and the fact that other drivers busted their asses for that win (therefore deserving it more).
Though Ryan Blaney worked as hard as anyone to win the GEICO 500, he ended up second after a last-minute press by Bubba Wallace that didn’t work out. And Kyle Busch took advantage of that kerfuffle and eased his way in for a very last-minute win. Talladega is a fantasy-busting nightmare. No matter how you play your numbers and do your research, it all comes down to luck.
Brilliant Pick Ryan Blaney ended up second while fellow Brilliant Pick Chase Elliott won stage one. Bold Pick Erik Jones came in sixth, holding tight to his single-digit-finish record at this Superspeedway. And everyone else fell to the wayside despite some flashes of greatness along the way. See ya in the playoffs, ’Dega.
We will move on to Dover this week, and we’ll all be thinking about seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson at this 48-dominated track. He won’t be racing here this weekend, so alas, we’ll need to rely on one of these crafty drivers to make it happen at the Monster Mile.
Behold the Brilliant, Bold, and Bonkers NASCAR fantasy picks for the Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway.
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Brilliant – These expert fantasy picks for NASCAR have the best shot at a win this weekend
Kyle Larson
He’s hot, like it or not, and he’s good on the Monster Mile. Kyle Larson’s first Cup Series race in Dover was in 2014. Since then, he’s only finished outside the top 12 once. Once. If he doesn’t get his third win of the 2023 NASCAR season this weekend, he’ll still give you some good fantasy points.
Dover Wins: 1
Dover Top 5s: 7
Dover Top 10s: 11
Kevin Harvick
Outside of Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick has led the most laps at Dover and has the best overall record. Seriously, single-digit finishes in 11 of the last 14 races here. If nothing else, you’re going to have a solid end to your NASCAR fantasy day if you go with the number 4.
Dover Wins: 3
Dover Top 5s: 10
Dover Top 10s: 23
Chase Elliott
I’ll likely stick Chase Elliott in the Brilliant or Bold list every week until he wins a race. It’s his goal to win because he cannot get into the playoffs on points alone, so he’s going to work his behind off to make it happen at each and every track. But, also, he’s good at Dover.
Dover Wins: 2
Dover Top 5s: 9
Dover Top 10s: 9
Bold – Here’s my NASCAR fantasy advice on this week’s sleeper picks
Joey Logano
Well, now that Alex Bowman will sit out for the next three to four weeks with a back injury, I have to replace him on the bold list. I threw a dart at a board and came up with the No. 22. Joey Logano, you’re here by default. But, it could be worse. You have some pretty good numbers here, so you better pull a fast one–literally–and make me proud that I picked you.
Dover Wins: 0
Dover Top 5s: 5
Dover Top 10s: 15
Brad Keselowski
It’s only a matter of time before Brad Keselowski gets his first win of the season. He’s run very well at most tracks, though he hasn’t always finished the job. He hung on tight for a fifth-place finish last weekend in Talladega, and I think he’s going to keep the trend going in Dover where he’s had some luck in the past.
Dover Wins: 1
Dover Top 5s: 5
Dover Top 10s: 10
Martin Truex Jr.
Though he bottomed out in Talladega–who didn’t–he was running pretty warm leading up to it. Martin Truex Jr. has done so incredibly well here in the past, I have a feeling he might get back to old form this weekend.
Dover Wins: 3
Dover Top 5s: 9
Dover Top 10s: 18
Bonkers – Chances are slim that these drivers will benefit your NASCAR fantasy points this week
Bubba Wallace
Whenever I place a driver on my Bonkers list, it seems to catapult them into a positive place, so maybe this is all Bubba Wallace needs to jump-start the rest of his season. Until that happens, hold off on the 23 this Sunday.
Dover Wins: 0
Dover Top 5s: 0
Dover Top 10s: 0
Austin Dillon
Austin Dillon has been up and down this season, with more downs than anything else. He had a third-place finish on the Bristol Dirt, but otherwise, it’s been a bummer. Dover does not promise much, so hold off until he gets to a better-suited track.
Dover Wins: 0
Dover Top 5s: 0
Dover Top 10s: 3
A.J. Allmendinger
I feel like A.J. Allmendinger has had a rough go of the 2023 NASCAR season, and this is why he sits on the Bonkers fantasy list. After his sixth-place finish at the Daytona 500, he hasn’t cracked the top 10. Give him a pass until we get to a road course.
Dover Wins: 0
Dover Top 5s: 0
Dover Top 10s: 3
