Week 3 NFL game picks against the spread 

2023 Record: 1-2 (-1.1 units) 

Not such a great start but just missed covering Colts +5 by one yard. We missed Week 2 but we are back and ready to go for Week 3. Each week I will write up three picks and explain the rationale behind the three picks. The pick has to be against the spread betting the side or total, to prevent heavy favorite moneyline picks. Without further adieu, here are my NFL Week 3 picks! 

Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Detroit Lions (DraftKings) 

I don’t currently have this pick in, but I will be before the 1:00 games start. I am waiting because the lines I see currently have the Falcons +3 at around +100 or -105. I think if we wait a little we can get the hook without paying for it. The Lions are a very public team receiving 76% of the bets at DraftKings which should drive this from a +3 to a +3.5.

The Falcons do not play pretty football, but they have played winning football and are 2-0 straight up. Their commitment and success to the run game was one of the reasons I bet them to win the NFC South this season. They should be able to keep the ball out of this high-powered Detroit Lions offense because of their ability to run the ball. Give me the Dirty Birds at hopefully 3.5, but I’ll take the 3 if it doesn’t get there. 

Confidence Rating: 7/10 

Cleveland Browns -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans (DraftKings) 

This is a buy low sell high play on the Cleveland Browns. We had the Browns Week 1 over the Bengals at home and they delivered. This past Monday, the Browns looked horrendous offensively and lost Nick Chubb for the season. The Tennessee Titans are coming off a huge win in overtime over the Los Angeles Chargers.

I think Cleveland’s defense should be able to shut down the Titans, and their offense bounces back from last week. The Titans are actually a public dog receiving 57% of the bets as of Saturday afternoon, and that number should climb because the public remembers how bad this Browns team looked on Monday. This is another pick in which I am waiting to see if I can get the 3.5 to fall to a 3 before taking it. If it doesn’t move, I’ll still have the Browns -3.5. 

Confidence Rating: 7/10 

Minnesota Vikings ML vs. Los Angeles Chargers (DraftKings)

Both of these teams are 0-2 and my gut feeling tells me this is Brandon Staley’s last year as the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are without star running back Austin Ekeler which should hinder this offense at least a little. The Chargers actually opened as 1.5-point favorites and are now 1-point dogs. The bets are split pretty evenly with Vikings receiving 54% of the bets which indicates that bigger money is coming in on the Vikings. I’ll take the home team to win to save the Vikings season and the Chargers to think about some serious changes after this week. 

Confidence Rating: 7/10 

**Bonus Teaser Alert** 

Miami Dolphins -½ 

Jaguars -1.5 

Bucs +10.5 

Miami has looked incredible and has been passing all over the yard so far. Denver has been allowing passing offenses to thrive and Russell Wilson hasn’t exactly rebounded with Sean Payton. The Jaguars should bounce back and win by at least a field goal to the Texans whose offensive line has looked horrendous. I like the Buccaneers to keep it close with Philadelphia because they match up well against them. Buccaneers are great against the run and if the first two parts of the teaser hit, you have a nice heading opportunity on Monday. Let’s have a nice bounce back in Week 3!

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