2023 Record: 2-5 (-3.2u)
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Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (DraftKings)
I don’t feel great betting against what looks like the best team in the NFL the Miami Dolphins, but the Bills have dominated this matchup, especially at home. Since 2020, the Bills are 6-1 against the Dolphins and are a perfect 4-0 at home. The Dolphins are coming off a monster 50-point win over the Broncos and the public is backing them.
According to Draft Kings, Miami is receiving 64% of the bets but this line is starting to move from -2.5 to -3 in favor of the Buffalo Bills. I’m confident fading the public and rolling with the strong reverse line movement. The Bills have covered their last two games and I like them to win and cover the smaller number here against the Dolphins.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Tennessee Titans +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DraftKings)
We faded the Titans last week for our only win as they lost big on the road against the Browns 27-3. The Browns have an incredible defense completely shutting down Tennessee, which they will do to a lot of teams this season. The Bengals on the other hand got their first win of the season beating the Rams on Monday Night Football. This line opened with the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites on the road, and the public jumped all over them.
According to DraftKings, the Bengals are receiving 83% of the bets but this line has not moved. The line is frozen at 2.5 because sportsbooks do not want to give Tennessee that key number at 3. As an underdog, Mike Vrabel is 25-15-1 ATS and as a home underdog, he is 10-5 outright and against the spread. If this line closes at 2.5 I will take the Titans and sprinkle on the money line, but I will hold out to see if I can get a 3 before game time.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Washington Commanders +9 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DraftKings)
The Washington Commanders have outright won two of the last three matchups against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Eagles are another heavy public team receiving 78% of the bets on DraftKings which moved this line from -7 to -9. The Commanders and Sam Howell had 5 turnovers last week and I see Ron Rivera cleaning things up and keeping this divisional matchup close.
The backdoor cover will be open if the Eagles do jump out to a lead and I really just think 9 points is too many for this divisional matchup.
Confidence Rating: 6.5/10
Bonus Player Props
Chris Godwin o 5.5 receptions- Marcus Lattimore has had success in the past and should follow Mike Evans all over the field. Godwin should get more involved in this game and should be a breakout for this season.
Roschon Johnson o 31.5 rush yards– Roschon Johnson has become more and more involved in the Bears offense each week (Snap share weeks 1-3: 39%, 42%, 45%). The Broncos just allowed 350 rushing yards to the Dolphins.