Week 15 2023 DraftKings picks — Pickard’s ‘pick-six’

“Expert: a man who makes three correct guesses consecutively.” – Laurence J. Peter. 

Last week, I took a lot of time looking at correlation, player projections vs. player cost, ownership projections, and thinking in a complete DFS trance, I arrived at my best outcome ever.  

I finished 36th in the final Fantasy Football World Championship Qualifier. I am very proud of how this year has been, and I want to instill confidence in you when I provide player projections.  

Financially, I want to protect your investment as much as mine. Let’s keep the good vibes going and finish the last few weeks with a big bang!  

Week 15 ‘Pick-Six’ Picks:  

1) Tommy DeVito QB, NYG $5,000 – Have you ever had a classic Italian dish like Filetto di Pomodoro?  Maybe some Gabagool served with Mozerrala or Mascarpone? Tommy Cutlets is the Italian cuisine the NFL needs right now, and I am willing to die on that hill. The Saints only average 1.8 sacks per game,  putting them in 30th place. They are also allowing 131.5 rush yards per game; this is where I want to get the value from Tommy. He is not afraid to run, and I like the return of Waller here to help keep them alive on short conversions.  

2) Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, KC $5,000 – Egregiously low cost here. In a tightly contested game, he had  11 carries and four targets last week. There are currently fourteen running backs projected to be higher owned than Edwards-Helaire. CEH dominated the role inside the ten and out-touched Jerick McKinnon  13-to-7. New England has allowed the fewest yards per carry to opposing backs, but Edwards-Helaire is attached to an offense with a high-implied team total while dominating the short-area touches. He burnt people last week, but I’m happy to return to him at a cheap tag and low ownership. 

3) Stefon Diggs WR, BUF $8,400 – I am paying for this rollercoaster ride. Diggs has been the 5th highest-targeted WR on the season, and he receives 29.6% of the offensive attention. This is a must-win, and they need Diggs to erupt today. I want the best piece on the field in a game with 49.5 points expected to be scored.  

4) Darren Waller TE, NYG $4,400 – Nobody will own Waller, and I want to stack him with DeVito. This is a  GPP play; I do not recommend this if you are playing cash games. You will have a different lineup construction, and I am projecting Waller to have under 2% ownership as he returns from IR. Waller,  Weeks 1-7 before his injury, was targeted on average seven times per game. TEs tend to be the savior of young QBs, and this week, you need to get spicy with all the chalk plays.  

5) Michael Gallup, DAL $3,300 – Excellent bring-back piece in the Bills vs. Cowboys game. This is shot in the dark play. Lamb will have high ownership, and Cooks is iffy with an illness, although he is expected to suit up. Only put Gallup in if your lineup is packed with studs and you need financial relief. The best-case scenario is that Gallup has a 20-ish point day. You are not paying for his upside; you are saving to buy someone else’s.  

6) Jets DST, NYJ $2,500 – The Miami Dolphins are in a weird position this week. Missing 4 out of the five offensive linemen, Hill and Achane are dealing with injuries, and Tua has not been able to settle in the pocket to deliver a lot of damage. I have to buy in for a DST this strong at a bargain price. I am not paying down because they are cheap; I am paying down because this defense has immense turnover capability. They average 2.8 sacks, 0.9 interceptions, and only 299 yards per game. Where they get gashed is against the run, and without that frontline for the Dolphins, it should be a self-solving problem this week.

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