Who will be hitting the Las Vegas strip for Super Bowl LVIII? This is the week we find out. The four remaining teams include the defending Super Bowl champs, arguably the best team throughout the 2023 season, a team looking to advance to its first Super Bowl, and one of the most storied franchises in the NFL. A football fan can’t ask for much more, other than winning their postseason DFS tournament, of course.
The elites outside – WR and TE matchups for the AFC and NFC Championships
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (AFC Championship)
Mark Andrews, TE
The Ravens look to defend their home field on Sunday against the reigning Super Bowl Champions for the AFC title. With Mark Andrews playing for the first time since week 11, some may be suspect of his value, but this matchup offers him fantasy upside.
Andrews still sits third on the Ravens in targets on the season despite only playing in 10 games (PFF); if he is out there, he is likely to get involved in the passing game. Andrews leads the NFL at tight end in slot alignment rate at 80.5%; this should give the Chiefs a few options to cover him, including slot corner Trent McDuffie and safety Justin Reid (PFF).
McDuffie grades out well in coverage but sits at just 5’10”; Lamar Jackson may not hesitate to look the 6’5” Andrews’ way if the Chiefs try this matchup. This leaves Reid, who has allowed four touchdowns on the year and 10.5 yards per catch (PFF). Andrews should have ample opportunity to convert chunk receptions, and with six touchdowns on the season in limited work, he should remain a red zone threat for the AFC’s top-seeded team (PFF).
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sam LaPorta, TE
In Santa Clara this weekend, the Lions attempt to win their first-ever NFC championship. Sam LaPorta has had an exceptional rookie season and should have an opportunity to extend it in this game.
With 46.6% of LaPorta’s snaps coming in the box (PFF), he will draw both Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw at linebacker for the 49ers. The combination of weaknesses for these two defenders opens the door for fantasy production for the Detroit tight end. Warner allows receptions on 79.2% of the targets he defends, and is in the top 15 at linebacker in YAC allowed with 389 yards conceded this season (PFF).
LaPorta is seventh in the NFL at tight end in YAC, and with an aDoT of 7.2, often catches the ball outside of Warner’s depth; the linebacker’s aDoT comes in at 4.5 (PFF). In short-yardage situations, LaPorta has compiled 526 receiving yards and four of his eleven touchdowns (PFF) this year. If LaPorta can draw Dre Greenlaw in the red zone, expect Jared Goff to target him. Greenlaw is tied for third most touchdowns allowed at linebacker on the year, giving up four (PFF).
George Kittle, TE
George Kittle certainly did his part in helping the 49ers advance through the divisional round last week, bringing in four receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown (PFF). Kittle received seven targets last week, and the linebacking core from Detroit may help him hit that mark again.
Kittle can force Detroit to cover him with their middle defenders, with the bulk of his snaps coming from the inline spot. Lions linebackers Alex Anzalone, Derrick Barnes, and Jack Campbell carry the following reception rates while defending targets, respectively: 75.6%, 80%, and 82.1% (PFF). As long as protection holds, Kittle should be converting his looks from Brock Purdy to receptions on inline snaps. Kittle nearly doubles the aDoT of all three Lions linebackers at 10.0 (Campbell is at 5.7), the depth of his catches could compound with a potentially high reception total (PFF).
Brandon Aiyuk, WR
Brandon Aiyuk has not been overly productive in his last two games, posting 57 total receiving yards on 10 targets (PFF). This matchup with the Lions’ secondary should give him some runway to kick that trend.
The Lions will deploy three corners to defend Aiyuk along with his teammate Deebo Samuel, Cameron Sutton, Brian Branch, and Kindle Vildor. In the aggregate, this trio in coverage has given up 15 touchdowns (PFF). Aiyuk plays primarily on the outside, setting him up to see more of Sutton and Vildor. Cameron Sutton allows 15.9 yards per catch, and Vildor, a massive 21.2 yards per catch (PFF).
Aiyuk’s aDoT of 14.1 will have him looking for the ball right between the average depth of both Sutton and Vildor, but he has the highest contested catch rate of any receiver in the NFL on the season at 60.0%, converting 9 of 15 of those targets into receptions (PFF). This is a game where the 49ers clearly have an advantage outside, an area of the field where Aiyuk has cataloged 706 snaps this season (PFF).
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