Hello Friends! We had a great start to the playoffs, with only the Dolphins ruining any of our teaser pieces. Not only that, but the two underdogs we chose actually won outright, so hopefully, you were able to join me in making some money wild card weekend. We now have four phenomenal games to choose from to get our picks in this week, but with only four games, we will be making fewer picks. I will have a main teaser along with a riskier bonus teaser. I will also only be choosing one over and one under this week due to the lack of games.
Speaking of over/unders we went 3-1 last week with the only loss coming via the Lions/Rams game that was very close to getting that over. We won’t let this result dictate who we choose this week as we are hoping the Lions can make up for last week by reaching their high number this week. It’s tempting to go with lots of overs this week after the week offenses had last week but we also have an under this week that looks too good to pass up.
Well try to keep the fire burning this week going into the playoffs and go for the ever-elusive perfect week, good luck and happy winning!
6-point Teaser of the Week:
49ers (-3.5) vs Packers – We were on the Packers last week to cover against the Cowboys, but the 49ers off a week (more like two weeks) of rest is too juicy not to back with the extra 6 points. The Packers, and especially Jordan Love, have been on a hot streak, but the defensive side of the ball has still left a lot to be desired.
The Packers have a defense that dares you to run, which worked well last week against a Cowboys team that has struggled with their run game all year. The 49ers and their number-one rushing attack should not have that same issue. The extra time has also given offensive genius Kyle Shanahan plenty of time to come up with a good game plan and a solid offensive script to start the game and get them a lead. With a lead and their dominant pass rush, the 49ers seem to have all the ingredients to end the Packers’ win streak.
Buccaneers (+12) at Lions – If you would have told me that I was going to take Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles in the Divisional Round at the beginning of the year I would have thought you were crazy, but here we are. In a matchup that seems to favor everything the Bucs like to do, I feel good taking the double-digit points with a Lions team that survived the Rams by the skin of their teeth. This will be a tough matchup for Goff against a blitz-heavy Todd Bowles defense. When blitzed, Goff is only the 22nd-ranked QB in the league.
On the other side, the Lions and their pass funnel defense should fit right into Tampa’s game plan of throwing early and often to its star playmakers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be able to feast on this weak Lions secondary, making their lack of a run game mute. While the Buccaneers may not be able to get the outright win here, I think they have more than enough to keep up in a fun, high-scoring game in Detroit.
Bonus Teaser of the Week: Texas Two-Step Teaser (7 points):
Texans (+16.5) at Ravens/Packers (+16.5) at 49ers / Packers at 49ers (over 43.5)– Yes, we are double dipping again. And again, it is with the Packers, who seem to be a team that can either get blown out this week or win outright. They came through for our teaser last week but crushed our bonus teaser by blowing out the Cowboys. This week I think we will hit our sweet spot with them as their offense seems to be playing to good to lose by more than 16 but as I stated above this is the 49ers game to lose.
The Packers defense won’t have an answer for the 49ers and CMC, but, hopefully, Jordan Love can either keep this within single digits or get us a late garbage time cover. If we hope the Packers can keep it close with their offense, then we should also add the over to this teaser. The Packers’ chances of winning seem to tie to this game being a shootout, so we will happily take the 7 points on a total that should go over as is.
The last piece of our bonus teaser is the other huge underdog of the week in the Texans. Like the Packers, the Texans are big road underdogs but have been playing better than the line suggests. While the No. 1 seeds should be favored to win with home-field advantage and an extra week of rest, there are still statistics to back the road teams. Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last 43 tries (14-29 SU).
If the game stays close, then all of the pressure starts to heat up for the No. 1 seed, who is expected to win; the underdog road team can play loose as they have no pressure. There is also the fact that the Ravens have not been very successful in the playoffs with Lamar, only holding a 1-3 record in the postseason. Then there is also the fact that the last time they were the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, they were defeated in the divisional round in a Lamar MVP season. Sounds familiar?
Overs of the Week:
Buccaneers at Lions (Over 49.5) – Here we are again, taking another Lions playoff over. This time hopefully, we get one more field goal to get us over the hump and to the number. A lot of the same reasons to like the over last week also apply to this game. This is a perfect matchup of two teams who can’t stop the pass while also being able to completely shut down the run, a script made for over-bettors. The Loins ranked second this year in rushing yards given up per game, while Tampa finished close behind in 4th.
I don’t see Tampa even trying to establish the run game like last week and focusing on taking advantage of their matchups in the passing game. The Lions may try to establish the run in this one, but with what Vita Vea and the Tampa front seven can do, I think sooner rather than later, Ben Johnson will put the ball in Goff’s hands to get the Lions into the conference championship. This is also the only dome game of the weekend, making it very nice we don’t have to worry about weather.
Unders of the Week:
Chiefs at Bills (Under 45.5) – Once again we get a Mahomes vs Allen playoff matchup but this time the teams look a lot different than those high-powered offenses in years past. You can argue both of these offenses are more run than pass offenses nowadays, and you can even take it further by saying these two teams have become more defensive-focused than offensive.
Since the last time these two played in the playoffs on January 23, 2022, these two teams have switched offense coordinators, added top level running backs, and have improved defensive units that are good enough to win games if given the chance. This will be the seventh time these two teams play this decade, and they are both 3-3 in those games, showing just how even and tight-scoring these two teams are. This should be another classic that goes down to the wire, just expect more running and field goals than you remember in past matchups.
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