You are paying a premium on players. This is how ADP generally is structured. A player’s ADP usually is higher than either A) last year’s fantasy finish or B) their ppg the year prior. When you select them at ADP you must then hope that they beat not only last year’s efforts, but also the speculation on that player. This is just to get fair value.
Rarely do you find a player that you can draft well below both their fantasy finish and their ppg finish from the prior year. The market does not allow for this unless something has happened to either them or their supporting cast in the offseason. At the time of writing, only 14 players in the top 100 ADP according to Fantasy Pros (PPR) provide this value. Everyone else is either a spot or two within their 2020 fantasy finish, and you must pay up to have them on your team.
The market slip for some players amongst those 14 is reasonable. Tom Brady may be starting the year without three of his top pass catchers from last season. Tyler Lockett lost an elite QB who will be replaced by a carousel of Geno Smith or Drew Lock. Chris Godwin is rehabbing a torn ACL.
However, some are falling not because of injury or because of someone new under center. It’s a curious situation of exhaustion. We fantasy players have seen this player too many times. They are stable veterans that do not yield many oohs and ahhs during a draft. We know their ceiling and, honestly, we prefer someone new and exciting. Someone with that mysterious upside.
One of those players is Brandin Cooks. It is not cool to draft Cooks, and it probably has been like this for a few years. Maybe it was cool when he was fresh off his first 1000-yard season and Drew Brees was slinging the ball to him, but not now. Not after that injury-riddled 2019 season that many left him for dead, and the fact he’s on a putrid team with a quarterback whom no one will select in re-draft leagues this year. Plus, there are so many cooler players going around him that are far more fun to draft—Elijah Moore! Michael Thomas! Gabriel Davis! For those who seek upside, sure, go with those players.
Brandin Cooks is not that. He is, however, boringly consistent, no matter who is slinging him the ball. Since his sophomore year in 2015, he has finished WR20 or better in all but one year. Only he and Mike Evans hold that honor. Not Davante Adams, nor DeAndre Hopkins, nor Keenan Allen.
The question mark today deals with the team and the quarterback. No longer are future hall of fame QBs and coaches marshaling the offense. The Texans will more than likely be a bottom-half offense with Davis Mills under center. None of this augur any confidence in Cooks, and that doubt is built into his ADP. If he was reasonably priced, you’d have to grab him two rounds prior to where he’s going.
Consider this though: Davis Mills and Brandin Cooks played in nine full games last season together. During those nine games, Cooks had 81 targets, 644 yards, and 5 TDs. Not earth-shattering numbers, but they’re nice to have on your squad. Consider now the share of those statistics he had amongst all receiving options on the Texans: he accounted for 25% of Mills’s targets, 35% of the receiving yards, and 45% of the receiving touchdowns. Furthermore, as the season progressed, Mills’s repertoire with Cooks grew, and in the final three games played together, this un-cool receiver posted 11 targets/game, 90 yds/game, and 1 TD/game.
Rarely will you find league winners in the sixth round, so you must look for rotational pieces such as Cooks that offer value and consistency. Sometimes it’s the boring picks that end up contributing to championship rosters.
