In fantasy football, there is nothing worse than drafting a running back who ends up being a bust. A bust in fantasy is described as a player that performs well below their ADP and expectations before the season. These players do not have to be early picks, they just need to disappoint for where they were picked in drafts.
The most obvious RB bust from the 2022 season was Jonathan Taylor. Taylor was the consensus first-overall pick across all fantasy drafts. However, his season ended early due to an injury after averaging just 12.2 fantasy PPG, which ranked 23rd among all RBs. This was far below the 21.9 fantasy PPG that Taylor averaged in 2021 when he finished as the RB1 on the season.
While ADPs are not set in stone this early and will continue to change drastically throughout the off-season, these RB busts will be determined mostly by past production and how they are seen in fantasy terms. This article is being written before free agency and the 2023 draft.
*Full PPR scoring will be used for reference.
2023 fantasy running back bust candidates
Joe Mixon, CIN
Joe Mixon is very unlikely to return as a Cincinnati Bengal in 2023. The Bengals would save $7.3 million in cap space if they cut Mixon before June first, meaning this is more than likely coming very soon. They will look to replace Mixon with the upcoming free agency class and the incoming draft prospects.
Mixon will draw interest from teams, however, with the controversy that has been surrounding him, it is not clear how aggressive teams will be in pursuing him.
Even if a team signs Mixon to be their RB1, he will not match the production that he has had in Cincinnati. Despite finishing as the fantasy RB10 in 2022, 23% of his fantasy points came in his legendary week nine game where he put up 55 fantasy points. This is an outlier game. With just four weeks where he finished as a top 10 RB, he did not perform to the first/second round ADP that was set for him.
Mixon averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and 1.5 yards after contact per rush, which ranked 35th among all RBs. With just eight broken tackles on rushes, Mixon was not very effective when it came to running the football. He would likely need a role where he is the clear three-down bell-cow back with a good offensive line, this will almost certainly not happen.
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
Another prime cut candidate, the Dallas Cowboys would save $11 million in cap space if they let go of Ezekiel Elliott after June 1st. If Elliott does not agree to take a pay cut, he will undoubtedly become a free agent prior to the 2023 season.
After starting his NFL career on a historic projection where he was 3rd in MVP voting in just his rookie season, the past three seasons have been very underwhelming for Elliott. Elliott had a career-low in almost every statistic other than touchdowns in 2022, making it very clear that Tony Pollard is the superior back in Dallas. The coaching staff in Dallas has known that Pollard is the better back, however, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is and always has been a huge advocate for Elliott.
Elliott finished the 2022 season ranked as the fantasy RB22, while Pollard finished as the RB8. Zeke averaged an atrocious 3.8 YPC, which was tied for the lowest for any player with over 200 carries on the season. He also had just nine broken tackles on the year and was not able to crack 100 rush yards in any 2022 game. According to Pro Football Focus, Elliott was one of the worst receiving backs in the entire NFL, with an awful 41.4 PFF grade on all receiving routes.
If Elliott does find a new home for the 2023 season, he will not come anywhere close to the production that he has had in Dallas.
Alvin Kamara, NO
After finishing as at least a top-10 fantasy back in each of his first five seasons, Alvin Kamara ended the 2022 season as the RB16. Kamara will likely be suspended for some amount of time before the 2023 season, however, his production this past season showed that he is slowing down.
Kamara broke just seven tackles on rushes in 2022, which is by far the lowest of his career. The last two seasons from Kamara have been his worst since entering the league. This can be attributed to the fact that he has been getting more rushing volume and less receiving volume. He has averaged just about 3.8 YPC on 463 carries over the past two seasons, with just four trips to the endzone in 2022.
The Saints will have a new and improved quarterback under center in 2023 with Derek Carr. Carr will without a doubt improve the offense’s production including Kamara. However, with the suspension that Kamara is set to face, it will be tough for him to get back into rhythm when he does return. Look for New Orleans to add a significant back this off-season to take on the duty while Kamara is out.
Lower Expectations: Javonte Williams, DEN
Javonte Williams was set to break out by many in 2022 and was being drafted highly. Williams suffered a brutal knee injury in the team’s Week 4 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, where he tore his ACL and LCL. His status is in doubt for the start of the 2023 season.
Matthew Berry attended the scouting combine and heard from many within the NFL about Williams’ injury. “I was told he is currently a lot more hurt than the team is letting on publically,” Berry said. Williams could be in a very similar situation to where J.K. Dobbins was this past season, not looking completely healthy and missing the start of the season.
Williams averaged just 10.5 fantasy PPG prior to his week 4 injury and finished as the RB12, RB23, and RB33 during those three games. Splitting snaps almost evenly with Melvin Gordan throughout his first two seasons, the Broncos have not shown that they trust Williams as a workhorse. With the acquisition of long-time head coach Sean Payton, the Broncos will without a doubt look to add some running back depth during the off-season.
