During each NFL season, there are running backs who have their breakout season and change fantasy seasons. These players are typically steals in fantasy drafts. Among the biggest breakout running backs from this past season were Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard. Both finished as top eight fantasy running backs after not being in the top 25 in 2021.
All of this past season’s breakout RBs have one main thing in common … they got much more opportunity and immediately capitalized on it. Stevenson had 100+ more touches than he did in 2021 and quickly proved himself to be an every-week starter in fantasy lineups because of this increase in usage. Pollard also saw an increase in touches and absolutely shined, so much so that Ezekiel Elliott’s time in Dallas is now in doubt.
Each of these RBs fits the criteria that I have set for a potential breakout RB candidate: Has yet to finish as a top 10 fantasy RB but has shown flashes of being great, is under 25 years old, and is expected to get a significant increase in usage for several reasons.
*Full PPR scoring will be used for reference.
2023 running back breakout candidates
Khalil Herbert, CHI
Khalil Herbert was ranked first among all RBs (min. 100 carries) in yards per carry with 5.7 in 2022. Herbert also averaged a ridiculous 2.5 rushing YPC after contact, which was ranked 2nd in the league behind Tony Pollard. While having the 4th most rush yards over expectation with just 129 carries. To summarize it all, Herbert ran the football as well as anyone else in the league.
Herbert is in a very similar position to where Pollard was after his 2021 season. Pollard had 130 carries while averaging 5.5 YPC in 2021, Herbert had 129 carries averaging 5.7 YPC in 2022, the similarity between the two is startling.
Pollard got much more opportunity this past season and went from averaging 10.8 fantasy PPG in 2021 to 15.5 fantasy PPG in 2022, ranked 8th for all RBs. Herbert averaged just 9.1 PPG in 2022, but as seen with Pollard, given the opportunity Herbert’s number could absolutely skyrocket. The Bears also have over $100 million in cap space, putting them in a prime position to heavily upgrade the offensive line, boosting Herbert’s value.
Bears starting running back David Montgomery is an unrestricted free agent this off-season and it is looking very likely that they do not re-sign him. They could instead roll with the 24-year-old promising runner in Herbert who is still on a very team-friendly, 6th-round rookie deal.
When Montgomery got hurt early Week 3 against the Texans, Herbert took on the full RB1 role and had 20 carries for 157 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as week 3s Fantasy RB1 with 30.9 PPR points. Herbert could very well be limited to a two-down role. However, with Herbert’s incredible running style and vision, two downs could be more than enough for him to show an immediate impact and breakout as a fantasy RB.
Tyler Allgeier, ATL
After being a healthy scratch in Week 1 of his rookie season, Tyler Allgeier became just the 15th running back over the last 10 seasons to rush for over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Allgeier did this on just 210 carries, averaging 4.9 YPC. He also did this while facing the most stacked boxes (8+) in the entire league … yes even more than Derrick Henry.
Pro Football Focus graded the Atlanta Falcons as the best run-blocking team in 2022. With a strong possibility for the same offensive line to return for the 2023 season, Allgeier could once again be behind one of the best lines in the league. The Falcons also have the easiest schedule in the NFL for the upcoming season based on their opponents’ winning percentage in 2022, which could result in a very positive game script for Allgeier throughout the year.
Allgeier averaged just 10 fantasy PPG in 2022, but averaged 13.5 in his last four games, ending his rookie season on a high note. He ranked #10 in first downs gained among all RBs, as well as being one of just four running backs that had 200+ carries and zero fumbles lost. Head coach Arthur Smith praised Allgeier as the season progressed, stating how much improvement he has seen from him. Allgeier will only improve more before his 2nd season and the Falcons will look to continue to establish a strong run game under Arthur Smith, setting up a Tyler Allgeier breakout season.
J.K. Dobbins, BAL
After suffering a brutal knee injury in the team’s final 2021 preseason game, J.K. Dobbins made his anticipated return for the 2022 season. However, his knee did not hold up for very long as he was placed on injured reserve in Week 7. Dobbins would finally return in the Ravens’ Week 14 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers and showed an immediate impact. Over the Ravens’ last five games of the season including their playoff game, Dobbins combined for 505 total yards while averaging 6.55 YPC.
There is often a great deal of concern when it comes to running backs that have suffered significant injuries such as Dobbins. However, there have been multiple running backs that have returned from injuries similar to Dobbins and shown they can be just as dominant as they were before. He will also be two years removed from his knee injury when the 2023 season starts. Saquon Barkley returned from a similar injury that he sustained in 2020, and went on to finish as the fifth-ranked fantasy RB in 2022. With a full healthy season, Dobbins can very well finish as a top-10 fantasy running back.
Dobbins has shown how effective he can be running the football at both the college and NFL levels. He holds the record for the most rushing yards in Ohio State Buckeye history with 2003 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground in 2019. The Baltimore Ravens were ranked as the 2nd best run blocking team in the NFL by PFF, only behind the Falcons. At least four of their O-line starters are expected to remain the same in 2023. It is a possibility that Lamar Jackson is elsewhere in 2023, but this would not stop Dobbins from doing what he has always done … dominate in the run game.
Breece Hall, NYJ
Breece Hall would have undoubtedly run away with Offensive Rookie of the Year had he not suffered a torn ACL in the Jets’ Week 7 game against the Denver Broncos. Hall needs to make a quick turnaround in order to be completely ready for the start of the 2023 season, but Hall has said that he expects to be back for Training Camp. Hall does not have any prior significant injury history, boosting his recovery time and likeness to return as the same player immediately.
The 21-year-old has the prototypical size and speed for a top running back, as well as great receiving skills putting him in a position to be a bell cow three-down back. Shockingly, Hall still led the Jets in rush yards despite only playing 7 games and starting in just 2. Hall had 681 total yards and five touchdowns in those 7 games, with an insane 5.8 YPC on 80 carries. He was on pace for a historic rookie season. Hall averaged 16.4 fantasy PPG before his injury, ranking 7th among all RBs. With the rehabbing and recovery he has ahead of him, if Hall is indeed ready for the 2023 season, there is top 5 Fantasy RB potential in him.
