Every offseason we spend endless hours trying to identify the next batch of breakout stars who will lead our fantasy teams to the promised land. There is no greater feeling than picking the 2021 Ja’Marr Chase or Deebo Samuel and having them far exceed their draft position, thus providing tremendous value to your team at a discount price.
Now let’s stop talking about Unicorns, shall we?
Fantasy managers are a lot like real-life sports executives in that they need to get ahead of a player’s decline. Identifying a potential bust is just as important as nabbing the WR1 in the 4th round. Wasting valuable picks in your draft can absolutely cripple your team all season long.
The names you will see coming up won’t necessarily have terrible years and leave you with nothing, but I do not see these players living up to their currently-rich ADPs. Factors like age, quarterback and offensive scheme can all change a wide receiver’s outlook for better or worse.
Sit back and watch your league mates reach for the stars and endure a season of draft day regret.
Deebo Samuel (SF) (ADP: WR6)
(2021 Season – 16 games, 77 Rec, 121 Targets, 1,405 Rec Yd, 6 TD, 365 Rush Yd, 8 TD)
Fresh off signing a massive 3-year deal worth over 70 million dollars, Deebo Samuel is faced with more questions than answers heading into his fourth season in the league.
Last season’s overall WR2 is coming off the board in the 2nd round of most drafts right after Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams and right ahead of Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. It will be Trey Lance’s first full season under center and it remains to be seen if he can throw the ball at an elite level in the NFL and supply Deebo with the necessary volume to end the season as a WR1.
There will also be regression in the rushing department, mainly touchdowns as Lance is expected to take goal-line touches away from both Deebo and the running backs. Proceed with caution when thinking about taking Deebo in the middle of the 2nd round.
Dionte Johnson (PIT) (ADP: WR14)
(2021 Season – 16 games, 107 Rec, 169 Targets, 1,161 Rec Yd, 8TD)
Diontae Johnson comes into the 2022 season as the Steelers undisputed number one receiver but questions at quarterback and an emerging stud rookie are dampening my expectations for his path to a top-15 finish by season’s end.
The now-retired Ben Roethlisberger seemed to lock onto Diontae last season and pepper him with an average of 10 targets per game. Even though Big Bens’s arm was cooked, Diontae was still able to provide tremendous value in PPR formats as he finished the season as the WR 12.
Whether it is Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett getting the call under center in Week 1, there will be major uncertainty when it comes to the passing game. Trubisky spent last season holding the iPad behind Josh Allen in Buffalo and Pickett was selected 20th overall in last year’s draft to be the future of the black and yellow.
The Steelers also drafted 6-foot 3 Georgia standout George Pickens in the 2nd round of last spring’s draft. Early preseason returns make him look like he is destined to become the alpha of this receiving corps. If Pickens continues on this upward trajectory, expect him to soak up targets and become the go-to receiver at the goal line.
There are far too many questions at this point of training camp to even consider using this kind of draft capital on a player who should struggle to return the investment of a 3rd or 4th round pick.
Adam Thielen (MIN) (ADP: WR31)
(2021 Season – 13 Games, 67 Rec, 95 Targets, 726 Yards, 10TD)
The now 32-year-old Adam Thielen has been one of the most consistent producers in the league, finishing as a top 14 fantasy point producer in four of the last five seasons, but is this the year his age finally catches up with him?
Last season he was limited to only 13 games due to injury and remarkably still finished as the overall WR27. On the surface, this looks promising but a deeper dive into the stats shows that he’s due for a regression.
In 2021 he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade of his career as well as yards run per route since he entered the league. He is also almost certain to have negative touchdown regression as Dalvin Cook only found paydirt six times last season opposed to 16 and 13 the previous two years. This season is also looking to be Justin Jefferson’s coming out party with many pundits having him finishing as the overall WR1 which should come with a bump up from his 10 touchdowns last year. Do we really expect JJ to take a backseat to a 32-year-old Thielen?
At this spot in your draft, you would be wise to take a stab at the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Rashod Bateman or Devonta Smith who are all in potential smash spots on their respective teams.
Tyler Lockett (SEA) (ADP: WR38)
(2021 Season – 16 games, 73 Rec, 107 Targets, 1,175 Yd, 8TD)
For the first time in his career, Tyler Lockett enters a season without Russell Wilson at quarterback for the Seahawks and the replacements do not look promising for Lockett’s outlook this season.
Finishing as last year’s overall WR11 and the Seahawks’ leading receiver, Lockett will find it very difficult to match either of those accomplishments this year in what could be the worst season in Seattle since Wilson’s rookie year. He will be catching balls from Geno Smith, who beat out Drew Lock for the starting job this preseason and face stiff competition for targets from DK Metcalf who is fresh off signing a massive contract extension this summer. Metcalf will demand more of the ball now that he is being paid like the alpha receiver that he is. Tyler will also be turning 30 years old during the season and we have seen a sharp decline in speedy receivers in the past when they hit their age 30 and beyond seasons.
The deep ball stats with Geno Smith behind center should also regress. In 2021, Lockett finished 14th in air yards, 3rd in deep targets, and 7th in ADOT (average depth of target). Expect all 3 of those categories to come down with the downgrade at quarterback and Wilson’s willingness to throw the deep ball time and time again (with great accuracy) out the window.
Using a pick at this point in the draft on an aging receiver with poor quarterback play expected will only come back to haunt you.
Michael Thomas (NO) (ADP: WR27)
(2021 Season – DNP due to injury)
This last one should come with an asterisk.
Michael Thomas looks to be a very polarizing pick in this year’s fantasy drafts. In his last full season in 2019, he finished with 149 receptions on an absurd 185 targets and over 1,700 receiving yards. The receptions were good for an NFL record, passing Marvin Harrison’s 143 set in 2002. Then the injury bug hit in 2020 when he suffered an ankle injury in the first game of the season, only playing 7 games over the course of the year and never returning to form before having surgery and ultimately missing the entire 2021 season.
Entering this season, the 29-year-old Thomas faces uncertainty with his health as he has already picked up a hamstring injury in camp but is expected to be out there in Week 1. If he is healthy and back to his 2019 form, he should have no problem putting up monster stats with Jameis Winston at quarterback and an upgraded receiving core around him.
Taking Thomas at his current ADP of #65 overall could return league-winning upside if he is fully healthy and back to his true self, but if he has lost a step due to this string of injuries, he will just become a weekly drag into your IR slot and you will be kicking yourself for letting a potential high-end WR2 slip through your fingers in round 4 or 5.
High risk but high reward. Nobody said fantasy football was easy.
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