“For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” – H. L. Mencken.
Week 17 ‘Pick-Six’ Picks
1) Josh Allen QB, BUF $8,200 – Josh Allen and the Bills narrowly escaped last week against the Chargers. It was his second-lowest attempt number of the season, as he threw just 21 passes. He was hyper-efficient, though, averaging 11.3 yards per attempt. He had two touchdowns on the ground, which boosted his numbers, finishing with 25.98 DraftKings points.
Allen was excellent in the first matchup with New England despite the loss. He was throwing for 265 yards and two touchdowns while running for another en route to 26.3 DraftKings points. I’ve highlighted that the Bills lean on Allen in these must-win spots, and this week is no different. Allen is a solid option at low ownership in tournaments.
2) Travis Etienne RB, JAX $7,200 – It’s been a long time since I’ve talked about Etienne. He was one of the best fantasy assets in the league through the first two months of the season, with five of his first eight games going for at least 20 DraftKings points. Since then, he has none. He’s taking on the league’s worst rushing defense of the Panthers while his quarterback is questionable with a shoulder injury. This is as ideal of a scenario as you’ll ever see, making it a ” now or never” game for Etienne.
3) Stefon Diggs WR, BUF $8,200 – There hasn’t been much production for Stefon Diggs lately, with less than nine DraftKings points in five of the past six games. This can be explained to an extent, as he had a boatload of brutal matchups and some game scripts that led Buffalo not to need to pass. Diggs still has 28% of the team targets since he started this poor streak.
He caught six of 12 targets for 58 yards and a score the last time these teams played, and Diggs has now caught a touchdown in each of the past three games against New England. The Patriots went above their season average for man coverage the first time these teams played, and we’ll likely see a similar approach. Diggs has a 35% target share against man coverage. People are tired of clicking him; this feels like a good time to buy back in.
4) Cole Kmet TE, CHI $4,700 – *Zero drops on the season* Perhaps it’s to have an impressive drop stat line when you play for a team with a run-first mentality, but the fact that Cole Kmet has not dropped a single pass this season is impressive from any angle. He is the only tight end with 80 or more targets to be able to lay claim to this accomplishment. It may also surprise you that Kmet is the TE7 this season and has the volume you look for in a starting TE.
Since Week 7, Kmet has received six or more targets in all but two games and finished outside the top 12 at the position twice. He has also done this while not being touchdown-dependent. Over that same span, Kmet only has three touchdowns but still manages to produce as a TE1 because the receptions and yardage totals are there, with his first 100-yard game of the season in week 16. Atlanta has been a solid defensive unit in 2023 but is quite generous to opposing tight ends. If Kmet finds himself getting open and succeeding where the wide receivers cannot, he could be in store for another big day right when fantasy managers need it the most.
5) Devante Parker WR, NE $3,600 – DeVante Parker has quietly seen healthy volume lately, with five, nine, five, and five targets over the past four games. He’s coming off a season-high 65 yards, and Hunter Henry has been limited in praise this week, which could expose Parker to some red zone work. Parker is running a route on practically every dropback, appearing on 91% and 93% over the past two weeks. Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, but New England will likely see an elevated number of pass attempts here.
With such a cheap price tag, we don’t need much from Parker to pay off his tag. He leads the position in Projectdon’tus/Minus and Points/Salary.
6) Ravens DST, BAL $2,800 – This is simple: it’s the best DST in the league sub $3k playing an offense dealing with injuries on the road. Even if Tyreek Hill torches them for 150 yards and a TD, and Raheem Mostert has 50ish rush yards and a TD, it still leaves a lot of turnover opportunities they will have with their pass rush and most likely a pick as the Dolphins will try and get ahead or stay in the game through a pass funnel.
Subscribe to our newsletter on Substack to get full access to 5th Down Fantasy’s award-winning fantasy football player rankings and our weekly playbook email packed with everything you need to win big on Sunday. Your subscription will also help keep 5thDownFantasy.com the best FREE fantasy football advice website on the planet. Learn more.