Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article. This week’s Twitter question comes from @CJSik revolving around Jeff Wilson Jr, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, and Amari Cooper. The detailed answer to this question is at the bottom of this article.
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, or Kyler Murray.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 16 — Quarterback
Start – Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) @DAL
Hurts has done nothing but dominate fantasy football two weeks into his reign. In only his first 10 halves as a starter, Hurts has logged 198 rushing yards, 614 passing yards and six total touchdowns. All three of these fantasy outings came against solid defenses in Green Bay, New Orleans and Arizona.
Surprisingly enough the Cowboys’ defense has come along recently and for the 2020 season they allow 19.7-FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, 13th-most. The Cowboys also allow the 13th-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks giving up an average of 4.3 attempts, 20 rushing yards and 0.1 touchdowns to the position.
Just like your fantasy match up, this game is huge for both teams in regards to playoff ramifications and I would expect this to play out competitively. With a -1.5. spread and an indoor environment, this is a great game-setting to target for fantasy football.
Hurts was a start last week against a better defense on the road and this week against Dallas he looks to be in an elite spot. Get Hurts into your lineups as he should be viewed as top-12 for the week, with the upside to finish number one overall.
Start – Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU) vs CIN
After two-straight weeks of 30-plus fantasy points, Watson has only logged 20.4, 16.6 and 23.4 fantasy points over his last three weeks, respectively. Part of that is facing two premiere defenses, one of which – Indianapolis – he faced twice in three weeks.
With clearer waters in sight, Watson becomes an elite option for fantasy once again. The Houston quarterback is the clear-cut, best player on his team and the Texans will likely put all of the offense on his back. Watson is one of those quarterbacks that you have to buy into when the offense solely revolves around him, especially at home against a 3-10-1 team.
Cincy is an underrated defense when it comes to stopping their opposition at quarterback. Currently they are the 10th-best team in fantasy against quarterbacks and that translates to 17.4-FPPG to the position. Normally Cincinnati keeps the quarterback’s run-game shutdown but on the passing side, they surrender 244 passing yards per contest which is 12th-most.
Even with a stingy match up on paper, Watson is an elite quarterback. They say that elite quarterbacks cover the spread and with Houston being 8.5-point favorites you should start Watson with confidence.
Sit – Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR) @WAS
Washington is shockingly a good defense against quarterbacks this year and have tallied the third-lowest amount of passing yards allowed per game, which is 200.2 yards. Additionally, they are the eighth-best fantasy defense against quarterbacks and surrender 17.2-FPPG.
Bridgewater has looked solid in recent weeks, even despite battling some injuries. He has averaged 17.4-FPPG over his last three, but the lack of ceiling really is the reason you should be off of Bridgewater in Week 16.
When Washington is competitive, they do a good job of slowing the game down and playing to their strengths: defense. 2020 first-round pick Chase Young leads this defense and he was recently selected to the Pro-Bowl as a rookie. Young should be watched carefully. Even if he doesn’t grab some sacks his disruption is similar to other elite pass-rushers.
It also does not help that Washington’s head coach, Ron Rivera, was the head coach of the Panthers one-season ago. While Bridgwater was not on the Panthers in 2019, many other players were and Rivera should have a solid understanding of what the Panthers’ players do well and what they do poorly.
With an expected 44.5 game-total, there just doesn’t seem to be enough fantasy goodness in this match up for Bridgewater. Bridgewater looks like a tough player to rely on in Championship Week. Get him onto your bench and find a better option.
Start-Sit Week 16 — Running Back
Start – Salvon Ahmed (RB, MIA) @LV – Saturday game
The Raiders have found themselves chasing running backs this season and have allowed 22.7-FPPG to the position. Part of this is the 125.8 rushing yards per game they surrender on the season, but it doesn’t help when that average swells up to 171.3 rushing yards allowed over their previous three contests.
Ahmed has been surprisingly productive for fantasy managers who rolled the dice on him. In the three games that Ahmed has started, he’s finished with 15, 7.4 and 20.7 fantasy points respectively. One thing that Miami enjoys doing is giving the bulk of the workload to a single-back. Ahmed has locked this role down while Myles Gaskin continues his recovery with COVID-19.
Either way the game-script flows and whoever starts at quarterback for Las Vegas, I expect Miami to win this game and Ahmed will likely be part of that winning formula.
Get him into your starting lineup for solid flex-value, with a chance of a top-end RB2 finish.
Start – Leonard Fournette – (RB, TB) @DET – Saturday game
Thrust into the starting role for the Bucs is one Leonard Fournette. It is hard to imagine that we are approaching his second consecutive start after being a healthy scratch in Week 14, but that is the crazy 2020 season in a nutshell.
Fournette’s previous games have not been pretty for some time but in Week 15 he was able to fall into the end zone twice, which solidified his fantasy output at 20-fantasy points. With Tampa Bay being 9.5-point road favorites, it looks like Lenny could get a ton of opportunities to satisfy his fantasy managers in Week 16.
The former LSU Tiger will get an opportunity to run up against the league’s worst defense at stopping running backs, Detroit. The Lions have allowed an average of 151.7 rushing yards over their last three games and for the season, they allow 27.1-FPPG to the position.
Get Fournette into starting lineups in Week 16. The match up and the opportunity are both great and that is all we can ask for in fantasy.
Sit – Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI) vs SF – Saturday game
Drake will be facing off against the seventh-stingiest defense for opposing running backs, the 49ers, who have allowed 15.8-FPPG. The 49ers’ run-defense has been top-seven in the yardage category as well and they have surrendered 104.4 rushing yards per game. Even in Tony Pollard’s explosion-game last week, the 49ers only surrendered 87 rushing yards.
Drake did have a recent string of success with four consecutive double-digit fantasy finishes. Over those four aforementioned games he averaged 16.27-FPPG
It is important to understand why this success happened and why it could be tough for Drake to repeat. During Drake’s success, quarterback Kyler Murray did not rush in any touchdowns which is odd given how much the Cardinals had relied on Murray’s legs inside of the red zone. It was not until Murray suffered a shoulder injury that Drake was more heavily relied on for a red-zone role. Drake’s run of success, where he saw five touchdowns in four games, happened simultaneously as Murray worked through his shoulder injury.
With Murray being healthy once again it seems that Drake’s fantasy success is over. Sure, Drake is not a must-bench for fantasy managers but expecting 15-to-20 fantasy points is asking for a lot.
Drake being in this role can get you five-fantasy points (like in Week 15) and because of that he should be sat by fantasy managers heading into Week 16.
Start-Sit Week 16 — Wide Receiver
Start – Emmanuel Sanders (WR, NO) vs MIN – Friday game
Last week without teammate Michael Thomas, Sanders finished with a respectable four receptions on five targets and 76 receiving yards. Granted his opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, are one of the better pass defenses in the league.
Sanders is interesting because he is the new number-one receiver for quarterback Drew Brees – which guarantees a target-floor – and he is also facing off against the Vikings who have notoriously been bad against opposing receivers.
The Vikings are the third-friendliest team when guarding wide receivers and allow an average of 28.1-FPPG. They also have allowed 252.4 passing yards per contest and that is bad enough for the 25th-best. With a 51-point projected game-total, there should be plenty of fantasy goodness for New Orleans’ wide receivers.
Sanders is a great WR2 option this week and you may be able to sneak him off waivers since he had a quiet Week 15. If Sanders is on your roster, it seems hard to bench him. Expect a low-end WR2 finish and Sanders should get you there.
Start – Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE) @NYJ
The former Louisiana State alum has played really well of late and has maintained his pace, for the most part, since Odell Beckham Jr. went down for the season.
Since Week 12 Landry has averaged 16.25-FPPG which is comparable to Calvin Ridley’s 16.6-FPPG for the season or D.K. Metcalf’s 15.5-FPPG. In other words, he is viewed as a middling WR2 or flex-option but in all reality he could finish as a premier WR1 post-Week 12.
Landry will be playing against the New York Jets and that always comes with a little blowout-risk; despite that, the Jets allow the ninth-most points to opposing wide receivers at 25.8-FPPG. The Jets have also surrendered the third-most passing yards per contest at 279.8 yards per game.
Landry is a great option at the wide receiver position this week. His floor seems to be secure and his ceiling could be 24-plus fantasy points.
Sit – Robby Anderson (WR, CIN) @WAS
With a 44.5 projected game-total, this contest does not scream fantasy goodness and for Anderson, that could mean another dud-game is on-deck for fantasy managers.
It has been a while since fantasy managers have seen the best of Robby Anderson. With a tale of two-halves, Anderson averaged 13.34-FPPG in his first seven games but has since seen that average come down to 9.2-FPPG over his most-recent seven contests. In other words, he is not the same receiver that he was in the first half of the season.
Anderson will also be facing the second-best team against fantasy wider receivers, the Washington Football Team, who allow 19.2-FPPG to the position. Washington has also limited passing yards on an elite level. They currently rank third-best and have only surrendered 200.2 passing yards per contest.
Sit Anderson this week against Washington. Facing one of the best pass-defenses is not ideal and it lowers his floor/ceiling combination even further.
Start-Sit Week 16 — Tight End
Start – Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) @JAC
Kmet has seen his target share increase of-late and over his last three games, he has seen 16 targets. With those 16 targets, he is averaging 6.8-FPPG per game. In other words, he is going to be a boom-or-bust tight end that will be touchdown dependent – nothing new for tight ends.
There is upside in this matchup for Kmet though. Tight ends who face-off against the Jaguars have had success all season and have averaged 11.8-FPPG. Jacksonville also allows the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends and have allowed 11 on the season.
With the Jaguars unsure about their starting quarterback situation (again), coupled with James Robinson expected to miss, this Chicago Bears defense could take over this game and provide the Chicago offense with a few short fields, which will hopefully benefit Kmet.
Start Kmet up and hope for a touchdown against the Jags this week.
Start – Noah Fant (TE, DEN) @LAC
Lately, Fant has struggled to live up to his fantasy managers’ expectations, but as recent as last week he finally seemed back on track and finished with his first double-digit fantasy outing since Week 2. His Week 15 line was 8/68/1 and there could be more on-tap this week against the Chargers.
The Chargers have had a difficult time against opposing tight ends and have allowed 11.6-FPPG to the position on the season. Oddly enough LA struggles the most against tight ends in the red zone. The Chargers are tied for the third-most touchdowns given up to tight ends at 10, despite only allowing 62 receptions to the position which is 12th-lowest.
Fant is a fine option at tight end and unlike most players at his position, he carries a decent floor which is something rare for tight ends in 2020.
Sit – Jordan Reed (TE, SF) @ARI
After catching two touchdowns in his last three contests, Reed could find it difficult to succeed against the Cardinals in Week 16.
Reed will be lining up against the league’s sixth-toughest defense against fantasy tight ends. Against tight ends for the season, Arizona has only allowed 65 receptions for 650 yards and three touchdowns. Arizona’s 650 yards allowed is top-10 in the NFL and their allowance of three touchdowns is the fourth-lowest in the league.
Reed’s target share should also be concerning for his fantasy managers. Over his last three weeks, he has averaged 4.75 targets per game. With his targets being this scarce efficiency becomes extremely important, and efficiency is always volatile for tight ends.
The biggest issue is working with backup quarterback C.J. Beathard. Beathard did start some games in 2020, so I would not expect a meltdown, but Arizona could certainly cause problems for the newly named starter. If Beathard struggles then it will likely impact all of the 49ers’ passing options, including Reed.
Sit Reed out for Week 16 as his targets are never guaranteed, especially with the quarterback carousel in San Francisco.
Twitter QOTW
@CJSik asks: 1/2 PPR, should I start Jeff Wilson on Saturday, or wait on the Zeke injury news until Sunday to play Pollard? I could also put Amari Cooper into the Flex Sunday if Zeke is the starter and he/Pollard split carries. Thanks!
So here is how to approach this: Elliott was ruled out at the last minute and it was a surprise. With that being the case, I would imagine that Elliott will be back for Week 16 against the Eagles. The biggest thing you can do is monitor the practice reports as we lead up to Sunday. If Elliott is missing practices, that is not good and perhaps he could miss Week 16. If he is practicing in full at any point leading up to this game he will likely play.
You also need to monitor Raheem Mostert’s practice participation in a similar fashion. If he starts practicing in full or is active on Saturday, I would play a Cowboys player over Wilson. If there is any mention of a split-workload for the Cowboys’ running backs then I would play Cooper over Elliott. If Pollard is in he should get all of the touches and I would play him over Cooper.
With that said, I honestly don’t think Wilson is better than Elliott or Pollard this week. I would lean Elliott or Pollard because you are guaranteed volume. In comparison, you never know how the 49ers’ backfield will unfold but Wilson is the best of the San Francisco trio, assuming Mostert is out.
Finally, the 49ers’ quarterback situation is mess and they are facing a defense that is playing well, the Arizona Cardinals. Projected starter, C.J. Beathard, can get it done but will there be enough offense to make Wilson fantasy relevant? That answer seems risky at best.
