Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article so please be on the lookout for that in the future.
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Ezekiel Elliott, Travis Kelce, or Lamar Jackson.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Week 5 Start-Sit: Quarterback
Start – Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN) – Sunday Night Game
Cousins goes toe-to-toe with the Seattle Seahawks and overall this game should churn out a ton of fantasy points. This game sets up to be a shootout, boasting a 57.5 over-under with Seattle being favored by a touchdown. In addition, Seattle currently allows 28.3 FPPG to the quarterback position, second highest in the NFL, giving Cousins a sturdy fantasy-floor.
Cousins is intriguing because he has played better after his two-point fantasy showing in Week 2. Additionally, this game will likely feature Minnesota coming from behind or going back and forth with Seattle. The Vikings’ receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen also match up well and should win their battles against the secondary.
The only thing you should fear is Dalvin Cook taking over the game, but even that seems unlikely since Seattle grades so well at defending against the run, when compared to Minnesota’s offensive line.
Cousins should be a lock for an upper QB2 finish, with QB1 upside, and can be streamed in Week 5 and in Week 6.
Start – Gardner Minshew (QB, JAC)
In three of the first four weeks, Gardner Minshew has finished with at least 20-plus fantasy points. In Week 5, the sixth-round pick looks to continue his success in a divisional matchup against Houston.
Currently, this game is sitting on a 54.5 over-under with Jacksonville being six-point underdogs. Right off the bat, we can make a strong assumption that this game is going to be a high scoring affair and for Minshew, it should feature a ton of passes since he will likely be playing from behind.
Houston can also be generous to fantasy quarterbacks and have allowed 21.1 FPPG to the position, which is 13th highest in the league. When looking at Jacksonville’s receivers versus Houston’s secondary, you shouldn’t have any reservations as it does correlate favorably for the Jags to win their matchups.
The wild card in this game is that Houston’s head coach is fresh off the chopping block, which makes you wonder what team Houston will be. One thing is for sure, Houston should have every reason to light up the scoreboard which will put Minshew in great position throughout the game and even into garbage time. Minshew looks like a QB1 option this week and is available on many leagues’ waivers.
Sit – Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Carson Wentz and the Eagles head to Pittsburgh in Week 5 for The Battle of Pennsylvania and this game looks to be a fantasy stinker for Philadelphia.
Vegas projects this game to have a 44 over-under and have made the Eagles 7.5-point underdogs. The line on this game really leads you to feel like it will be a slow-paced game since both defenses are playing really well overall.
A game featuring defense, special teams, and a battle for time of possession is not unlikely either. That easily could be Philly’s plan since they are depleted from injuries on the offensive side. Pittsburgh’s defense is stellar overall and poses a lot of threats for Philadelphia.
On paper, this Eagles’ offensive line has an uphill battle as well. Currently, the Eagles are allowing a 20-percent sack conversion rate (the percentage of pressures that are converted for sacks) while Pittsburgh has a 36-percent pressure rate, which is second highest in the league according to PFF. Wentz could get hit a lot in this battle and that normally brings about bad fantasy play, especially when you are utilizing practice squad caliber receivers as he will. Steelers have also allowed 14 FPPG to the quarterback position, third lowest in the league.
Wentz is not playing well, the Steelers’ defense should impose their will, the Eagles’ offensive line looks to be vulnerable, Wentz’s receivers face difficult opponents and that is why you should leave Wentz on the bench this week.
Week 5 Start-Sit: Running Back
Start – Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC) – COVID Cancellation/Postponement Warning
It has been a slow start for Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s (CEH) fantasy managers, but Week 5 could quickly turn the tide on CEH’s fantasy production.
Edwards-Helaire’s usage has been incredible through the first four games. CEH has secured at least 16 touches in every game but he only has one touchdown, which has limited his ceiling. Most fantasy managers would automatically start a 16-touch running back but managers could be growing impatient given CEH cost them a first-round pick in fantasy drafts. Don’t give up on the rookie though, positive regression is coming.
The Chiefs head into Las Vegas as 13-point favorites in a game featuring a 56.5 over-under. Currently, Las Vegas allows the most points to the running back position, sitting at 34.1 FPPG. This sets CEH up to be utilized throughout the game, both in the run and passing attack.
Additionally, you can see the potential of Edwards-Helaire running out the clock and securing the win. Looking at the Kansas City offensive line, they should have no issues with the Raiders’ pass rush or their run-stopping ability.
Expect a big week from the former LSU Tiger. Start him up with full confidence.
Start – Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
What an incredible value Mike Davis has provided to Christian McCaffrey managers. Even as a stand-alone pickup, Davis has easily been an RB2 with RB1 upside given his usage.
Carolina will be matched up with the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5 and will start the game as two-point underdogs with a 54 over-under. Atlanta is the second friendliest team against fantasy running backs and is currently giving up 32.1 FPPG, second-most. Davis is game script proof and has received at least 13 carries in both of his starts, coupled with at least six targets. With this game having the potential ability to go into a shootout, Davis becomes all the more valuable.
This game will not be different for Mike Davis. Start him expecting slam dunk production.
Sit – Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)
In Week 5 Joshua Kelley enters with an exciting opportunity to become a heavily utilized running back. But with this match up and the intangibles surrounding this game, banking on Kelley’s success will be a gamble.
The Chargers take on New Orleans which currently has a 51 over-under, with New Orleans being 7.5-point favorites. Frankly, the game total is something to ignore this week because the Chargers’ offensive line will have their hands full. Through four games the Saints are the only team to not allow a rushing touchdown inside the five-yard line, which hurts Kelley’s upside.
The amount of questions surrounding this game is unfathomable from a fantasy perspective. What if Kelley continues to have fumbling issues, will he be pulled? How much will Justin Jackson be featured? Can Kelley and this offensive line even run on New Orleans? Can the Chargers stay in the game enough to even feature a rushing attack? Is Tyrod Taylor the starting quarterback or is Justin Herbert? There is no confident answer to any of these questions currently and that creates a chaotic fantasy forecast which you will have to gamble on.
Kelley has already been a dud in premiere match-ups this year, so even with Ekeler out of the way it is tough to rely on Kelley. With a number of unanswered questions, he is a high-risk flex play at best and you should only play him if he is the clear-cut favorite on your bench.
Week 5 Start-Sit Wide Receiver
Start – Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) – Sunday Night Game
Is it a breakout or just a good stretch of games with regression on the horizon? You should believe the hype because through five weeks PFF has graded Jefferson the highest amongst all receivers in the NFL.
Jefferson and the Vikings head into Seattle being +7 underdogs with a 57.5 over-under, highest on the slate. With the expected game total and the 53.5 FPPG that Seattle allows to the wide receivers, you should be convinced about playing Jefferson. However, the reason to play Jefferson goes much deeper than that.
The best part about Jefferson in Week 5 will be the cornerback covering him, Tre Flowers. Now Mr. Flowers has not been the best defensive back in 2020. Currently, he is giving up 0.31 fantasy points per target, coupled with an 83-percent catch percentage which is tenth highest among defensive backs covering at least 60 routes. With the amount of passing plays from Minnesota, I expect Jefferson to find himself open, a lot.
Clearly, Jefferson has created a reliable fantasy-floor over the last two weeks, and heading into Week 5 you should lock him in as a premiere WR2 option.
Start – Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Is he the true number one in Carolina, or is there regression on the horizon for Robby Anderson? So far into 2020, I would buy into Anderson’s weekly value.
Anderson will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5 and they cannot stop bleeding points to fantasy wide receivers. Four weeks in and Atlanta has surrendered 32.9 FPPG to the receiver position, a number that would likely be higher if Green Bay’s receiving core was in full force for Week 4 (holy Robert Tonyan, am I right?).
This game sets up to be one of the highest-scoring affairs on the slate with a 54 over-under with Atlanta being two-point favorites. With a huge over-under and Robby Anderson’s current form, he should be a lock for your flex spot this week.
Anderson has played so well in terms of fantasy, he arguably has replaced D.J. Moore as the lead dog in this position group. Through four weeks Anderson has finished as a WR1 once, and twice as a WR2, leaving him with one bust-performance in Week 3.
In Week 4 the former Temple Owl finished one-yard shy of 100 yards receiving, which would have been the third time this year. In other words, he has finished with over 99 receiving yards in every game this year but one.
There is little chance that Anderson can be contained in Week 5. Start him with confidence as his floor seems to be safe and his ceiling game could happen this week.
Sit – Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin finally gets rid of Dwayne Haskins, but with Kyle Allen now the starter McLaurin’s value will likely stay where it is at.
McLaurin being a “sit” this week is more about the quarterback and offensive line matchups. For starters, Kyle Allen created a large sample size in 2019 for us to reference when he played for the Carolina Panthers. In those starts, Allen was graded by PFF at 50.9, which is far from ideal. When Allen is facing pressure, that grade deflates to 26. This is an important metric to consider because currently, the Rams have a 31-percent pressure rate according to PFF, which should lead you to believe that Allen will likely be under duress. Plus, Aaron Donald has the ability to take over against a team like Washington.
Focusing back on McLaurin, the matchup he faces is not ideal either. He likely will draw the attention of Jalen Ramsey (if he is not suspended for his and Golden Tate’s midfield fight). Factoring in that Washington’s offensive line grades so poorly against the Rams’ defensive line, I fear that Los Angeles can get pressure with four-man rushes which allows for double-team looks against McLaurin. If you were the head coach of the Rams, shutting down McLaurin could shut down the entire offense – especially with a new starting quarterback.
McLaurin is not a must-sit this week, but definitely bench him in standard leagues. In addition, you certainly can consider swapping him out in PPR formats so long as you have the right players. Robby Anderson or Justin Jefferson are two commonly rostered players that I would start over McLaurin this week.
Week 5 Start-Sit: Tight End
Start – Dalton Shultz (TE, DAL)
Dallas’ offense has been a titan this year and that seems to be because their defense cannot stop anything. These shootouts have created an incredible fantasy opportunity for Dalton Shultz.
Dallas comes in as heavy favorites against the New York Giants, which is no surprise, and the over-under currently sits at 54. Obviously, this game will likely have a lot of points from the Dallas side but if New York’s offense can dominate this Dallas defense, as every team has so far in 2020, this game could quickly turn into fantasy gold.
You should be willing to bet on that game script unfolding because Jerry Jones’ Cowboys have done nothing to fix this defense from a personnel point of view. It is also interesting because this Cowboys team will be going against their former head coach, Jason Garrett, who is now the offensive coordinator for the Giants. Garrett knows these players well and New York may have an upper hand in terms of a game plan.
As for Shultz in this matchup, on paper, it seems like it will be a battle for him. The Giants have allowed only 6.9 FPPG this season, but that does not scare me off of Shultz because of the way his offense utilizes him. Shultz has received no less than six targets since becoming the starter and in Week 2 and 4 he received 10 and eight targets, respectively. The floor is there, much more so than previous tight ends that the Giants have faced. Blake Martinez will likely be tasked with containing Shultz but he currently is allowing an 83-catch percentage according to PFF.
Like most tight ends, he will likely need a touchdown to smash his value in Week 5. Have confidence in his usage. Shultz has been utilized much more than most starting tight ends in other NFL offenses. Plug Shultz into your lineup this week and see if he can’t get you double-digit points.
Start – Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
It has been a struggle for Engram’s fantasy managers this year and heading into Week 5, it seems like there is no better opportunity to get back on track as Engram goes against Dallas.
With a 54 over-under and the Giants being heavy underdogs, it sets up well for New York to rely on their passing attack. So far in 2020, Dallas has yet to contain any offense and I don’t see them fully stopping the Giants either. On top of that, Dallas also does not force turnovers, which have been Daniel Jones’ biggest issue thus far. If he can play a clean game it will go a long way for Engram.
This also could be a revenge game for offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, who drafted or signed most of these Dallas players, so it will be interesting to see how they attack the Dallas defense.
Against tight ends, Dallas is currently giving up 15.2 FPPG which is seventh highest in the league. Engram figures to be covered mostly by Jaylen Smith, who has a 43.3 coverage grade according to PFF. Engram should not struggle to get open against Smith this week. Further, some Dallas beat writers and radio personalities are calling for the benching of Jaylen Smith due to his struggles this year.
Even if Daniel Jones struggles with ball security you can see a path for Engram to be successful this week. If he fails in this spot it could be time to cut bait with the tight end. Fantasy managers should be pushing in all their chips on Engram in Week 5.
Sit – Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Week 4’s big game against Dallas seemed like it could be the spark that Austin Hooper needed to salvage his 2020 fantasy season. But in Week 5 it will likely be more of Hooper’s production from Weeks 1-3.
Hooper’s matchup is far from ideal. He goes against the Indianapolis Colts and they are the toughest defense against tight ends, giving up only 3.1 FPPG to the position. This is no surprise given the dominance of the Colts’ defense.
Furthermore, the Colts have the best defense in fantasy in terms of limiting the quarterback and are only giving up 11.2 FPPG. The matchups for both Baker Mayfield and Austin Hooper are going to be tough.
Looking at Hooper’s usage, he did not receive more than four targets in a game until their Week 4 shootout win against the Cowboys. Even with additional targets, Hooper finished Week 4 with 34 yards receiving which is his highest mark on the season. Insert the activation of David Njoku from injured reserve and you aren’t even guaranteed that Hooper will be the first and only look, like he was in Weeks 2-4.
Playing Hooper is chasing points, which can quickly hurt you in fantasy. Look to move on from Hooper this week and start someone else who is better utilized in their offensive role.
