Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article so please be on the lookout for that in the future. This week’s question of the week came from @ROQQINRIQ on Twitter (answer at the bottom).
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, or Kyler Murray.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 8 — Quarterback
Start – Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
After a below-average fantasy day, Ryan Tannehill and the Titans will head north to Cincinnati where they will play the Bengals.
One thing is nearly certain: the Bengals’ defense will give up touchdowns and fantasy points, sometimes in a hurry. But I really like this game for fantasy in Week 8 for several reasons.
The expected game-total is sitting at 52 points, which usually leads to great fantasy performances by quarterbacks and wide receivers. We also have two teams that have not played defense well, coupled with offenses that can score a high amount of points.
Tannehill has been great for fantasy and only once has he fell below 17 fantasy points in a game. With the Bengals allowing 20.3 FPPG to the quarterback position, Tannehill is one of the safest fantasy plays at the quarterback position this week.
Even with a six-point spread, a ceiling game from Tannehill could still be in the cards. The Bengals can keep up with Tennessee if their offense is clicking and we know they have no issues airing it out with Joe Burrow if needed.
Your only concern is Derrick Henry taking over, but as we learned in Week 6, both can have a good fantasy day simultaneously. Start Tannehill as a strong QB1 this week.
Start – Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Fresh off two consecutive QB1 finishes, Derek Carr will go for another top-12 finish against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
Raiders versus the Browns could potentially be the best game for fantasy purposes in Week 8. This game has been slapped with a 53.5 game-total with a 2.5-point spread favoring the Browns at home.
By now you have read this column several times and you know that we love to target games with a high over-under and a tight spread. This formula churns fantasy gold more often than not because games go into shootouts. Additionally, both defenses do not stop the pass well which again points to a potential shootout.
The Browns enter as the seventh friendliest defense to quarterbacks this year and have allowed 22.3 FPPG. Carr’s fantasy season has been decent this year. He is averaging 19.3 FPPG and with Cleveland’s history against fantasy quarterbacks, his floor is relatively safe; plus he has a decent chance at a ceiling game.
The key to this game will be protecting Carr. The Browns match up well when compared to the Raiders’ offensive line, which can always disrupt the rhythm of the offense in multiple ways. This won’t scare me off of Carr because Cleveland is also giving up an average of 288 passing yards per contest.
Carr is available in over 70-percent of ESPN leagues and will likely finish as a high-end QB2, with upside to crack the top-12. Treat him as a great BYE-week flier for your team’s quarterback spot.
Sit – Drew Brees (QB, NO)
Coming into a slow-paced and difficult match up, Drew Brees will better suit your fantasy team from the bench in Week 8.
Chicago’s defense is the best part of their team and they are in a match up where they can get into Drew Brees’ face. Presently, Chicago is top-12 in pressuring the quarterback this season. When under pressure, Brees has a passer rating of 80.6 according to PFF. Don’t expect a ton of turnovers as a result, but we can easily see Brees and company working from behind the chains at a consistent rate.
The Bears are also the best fantasy defense against quarterbacks right now. Which is why Chicago is allowing 13.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. This clearly limits Brees’ ceiling, which is already lower than previous years. Brees just isn’t the same that he used to be. His ceiling games no longer exist and the days of his fantasy stardom are well behind him.
Going against the Bears’ defense is never an easy task. When you look at the other side of the ball for Chicago, their lethargic offense slows games down and it just doesn’t create a great fantasy formula. This is important to highlight when looking at Brees because his time with the ball will be lessened.
It is no surprise that this game is set with a 44 over-under. Sit Brees this week against Chicago and look for better opportunities at the quarterback position.
Start-Sit Week 8 — Running Back
Start – Todd Gurley (RB, ATL) – Thursday Night Football
In the premiere game of Week 8, the Carolina Panthers will play host to the Atlanta Falcons and Todd Gurley is in prime position to eat.
Targeting a road-underdog running back can be risky. When the opponent is Carolina, you ignore trends and go with what you know: running backs take advantage of the Panthers.
This week Todd Gurley gets to be the lucky winner, and he is coming into this game in great form. Over his last five games, Gurley is averaging 17.5 half-PPR points. On the other side of the ball, Carolina is allowing 23.9 FPPG to running backs, which is fifth highest in the league.
This game also has a 52.5over-under with Carolina being home favorites at -1. This is a healthy line for a Thursday game and it also bodes well for fantasy because we will expect points to be scored by both offenses. Gurley has been a clear focal point in the red zone of late, and we only need one touchdown for him to solidify this week.
Looking up his prop bet lines, currently, Gurley has a 58-percent implied chance at scoring a touchdown (-140), and a 21-percent implied chance at scoring two touchdowns (+375). I will take a 58-percent chance at a touchdown with Carolina because they have only stopped two running backs this year, and both are not as talented as Gurley: Kenyan Drake and David Montgomery.
Gurley looks like a bonafide stud in this match up and you should be excited about watching him play for your fantasy team this week.
Start – Boston Scott (RB, PHI) – Sunday Night Football
After burning fantasy managers in Weeks 1 and 2, Boston Scott redeemed himself with 17 fantasy points in Week 7. With the Dallas Cowboys on-deck, Scott should be viewed as a near must-start.
This Eagles’ game looks to be a slow, paced-down game. The projected game-total is 43.5 with the Eagles being -7.5 favorites. This certainly is not the best line for fantasy, but for Scott it should not matter. Carson Wentz has not been good with the football, so the path for Scott to be successful is certainly there. In addition, you could easily see this defense taking over the game and that will correlate well for Scott more than likely.
The Dallas Cowboys are the sixth friendliest team to opposing running backs and are allowing 23.1 FPPG. If the fantasy statistics weren’t enough for you to jump on the Scott train, Dallas just traded one of their starting defensive linemen to the Lions and Dontari Poe – another starter on the defensive line – was cut on Wednesday as well.
Boston Scott will be in a great spot to take advantage of a team with poor defenders and sinking player-morale. Start Scott up and expect him to light up your fantasy scoreboard.
Sit – Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)
Reviewing Kelley’s Week 7 performance, he had plenty of opportunities and did very little with them. In fact, he only finished with 8-half PPR points for the week. In Week 8, Kelley will be running against a tough Denver run-defense. Currently, Denver is holding opposing running backs to 12.9 FPPG.
With Denver being stingy to opposing running backs, the path to beat them is through the air. After seeing Justin Herbert go off against the Jaguars, it is hard to imagine that he won’t be airing the ball out (until/if it gets lopsided). We also know this is still a timeshare with Justin Jackson who looks to be the third-down back and that certainly limits Kelley’s ceiling even further.
According to PFF, the Chargers’ offensive line does not grade well against the Denver defensive line. Further, this is actually PFF’s worst OL/DL match up for run blocking in Week 8. This means the run blocking is potentially the biggest weakness for the Chargers, which is to Kelley’s demise.
With an already shaky floor, Kelley has very little upside and should be benched heading into Week 8.
Start-Sit Week 8 — Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) – Thursday Night Football
Looking back to Week 5 when the Panthers beat the Falcons, we saw Anderson achieve 16-fantasy points with a stat line of 8/112/0. You should be going right back to the well in this matchup because the Falcons cannot contain opposing pass-catchers.
Anderson has not been like he was to start the season, but he certainly is a reliable fantasy asset. In each of his seven games, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but a single game. This probably correlates to the fact he has been a target monster in this offense and continues to see a healthy dose of usage.
Heading into Thursday, this game has an expected game-total of 52.5 (-1 Carolina), which means we have the right formula for fantasy production. We love high over-unders paired with tight spreads because it tends to lead to shootouts. The Falcons cannot stop pass catchers either. If the aforementioned shootout comes to fruition, watch out for a huge ceiling game because the Falcons give up an average of 29.6 FPPG to wide receivers.
Looking at Anderson’s prop bet lines, he has a 52-percent implied chance of going over 73.5 yards, coupled with a 43-percent implied chance of scoring a touchdown. Outside of calculating the implied odds, these prop bet lines are wonderful tools to get a feel for how Vegas feels about a player on a given week. Obviously you know that Vegas is good at what they do, and when lines are set there is a good chance that a player will come close to it.
There are multiple factors as to why Anderson is a great play this week. Simply looking at the match up should be enough for you. Get him into your lineup and let Anderson take you to victory in Week 8.
Start – A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
As one of the best games on the slate for fantasy, A.J. Brown and the Tennessee titans will travel to battle the Cincinnati Bengals.
Brown is a stud and there is no reason he cannot dismantle the Bengals’ secondary. The Bengals are an average team at defending the receiver position, but you and I both know A.J. Brown is not your average player. Brown is dynamic, large and becomes a target monster once the Titans reach the red zone. In his last two games, he’s caught three touchdowns. His floor seems extremely safe as well. Since returning from injury he has posted no less than 18 half-PPR points.
With Brown’s usage and consistency in the last three weeks, the projected game-total only makes me want to play him more. Currently the line for this game is set at 52, with Tennessee being road favorites at -4. I know you are probably annoyed with me saying it by now, but high game-totals and tight spreads are something to target for quarterbacks and wide receivers. We know Burrow can sling it, so this game could become the shootout of the week.
Start Brown and expect to get a few shots in the red zone at the very least. You should expect a WR1-type finish in this spot.
Sit – DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
With a new quarterback taking over in Miami, DeVante Parker’s fantasy managers should take a week and reevaluate Parker from their bench in Week 8.
While there is a lot of excitement around Tua Tagovailoa’s debut at the helm, their opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, could be the most excited. Rookies are mistake prone and the Rams dismantle offensive lines and create pressures and sacks. Pressures and sacks lead to turnovers and turnovers devalue wide receivers, namely Parker. This is part of the reason that the Rams are only allowing 16.1 FPPG to opposing pass catchers. Simply put, asking any rookie quarterback to make their first start against Aaron Donald and company is asking for failure.
As for Parker himself, he has yet to top 70 yards in a game this season. With that in mind, Jalen Ramsey will likely be shadowing Parker on the field. Ramsey is one of the best to do it and he is more than capable of shutting Parker down for the afternoon. Could it work out better for Parker with Tua – sure. But you shouldn’t be willing to die on that hill unless your options are limited. Let Parker sit in Week 8 and watch Tua’s effort closely.
Start-Sit Week 8 — Tight End
Start – Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
The third Titans’ player to make the list this week and it is none other than Jonnu Smith. Lately, Smith has struggled to produce fantasy results. Part of this is because A.J. Brown returned and it also doesn’t help that Smith has been a little banged up.
The expected game-total is what excites me the most about Smith. Currently, it is a 52 over-under with Tennessee being four-point favorites. The Bengals are a threat to force this game into a shootout as well, and that increases Smith’s ceiling.
Smith will be lining up against a defense that has allowed 12.6 FPPG to tight ends this season. In the last three weeks, the Bengals have been torched by tight ends — giving up a total of six touchdowns, 20 receptions, and 221 yards. This is a wonderful metric since Smith is utilized around the red zone.
Through 2020, he has tallied seven red-zone targets which is a healthy number for a tight end. Vonn Bell is the man that will likely be covering Smith throughout the afternoon and he is currently allowing a 71-percent catch percentage, so Smith should be able to break free.
In today’s tight end landscape Jonnu Smith looks to be locked and loaded as a stud this week. Get him into your lineups, and if he is available in trades maybe try and poach him as well.
Start – Richard Rodgers (TE, DAL) – Sunday Night Football
What is not to love about Richard Rodgers this week? Sure he is a fill-in but this offense and it’s quarterback love to target tight ends. This is an offense where Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz have both produced. When you can consolidate those targets to a single player who has been involved in the past, those are points I am chasing.
Rodgers passed the eye test in Week 7 as well, scoring 12-fantasy points. Granted it was against the Giants but with the Eagles playing the Cowboys this week, I expect the same results from Rodgers, if not more production. Dallas is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, allowing 9.9 FPPG. Their defense is a mess and their player-morale is still horrid.
Rodgers can be picked up on waivers. He’s a wonderful player that will get you multiple productive starts until Goedert and/or Ertz return. Don’t hesitate to start him against Dallas.
Sit – Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
As the season unfolds, Hunter Henry continues to give his fantasy managers mediocre production. With Henry going up against a tough defense this week, you should be looking for other options.
Quarterback Justin Herbert threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in Week 7 against Jacksonville, with very little of it involving Hunter Henry.
Henry has flashed little upside this season as well. Through 2020, he has not eclipsed 11-fantasy points in a single contest. That leaves Henry averaging eight fantasy points per game. It’s even tougher to face that when you look at the Denver defense who is suppressing tight ends and only allowing 6.5 FPPG.
The game-total for this game is a gross one as well. It currently is a 44.5 over-under with the Chargers being road favorites at -3. There just does not seem to be an opportunity for a lot of fantasy points and for that reason you should be out on Henry in Week 8.
Twitter QOTW:
@ROQQINRIQ asks: Mike Williams or Nelson Agholor (PPR)?
I would certainly start Agholor this week over Mike Williams.
Williams was not involved last week (or most games this season) and Herbert threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns. How does that happen? I have no clue. The matchup for Williams is not ideal either and it looks to be a gross divisional game. I also can’t fully trust a rookie quarterback going up against a good defense on the road, even with his performance last week.
Agholor on the other hand is trending up. In his last three weeks, he finished with 14.4, 14.7, and 21.7 PPR points. In addition, he is going up against Cleveland, who gave up another 300-plus passing yard game to Joe Burrow. Additionally, the Browns are the second-worst team at defending receivers in fantasy. Lastly, I love Derek Carr this week and he should have no trouble getting the ball to his weapons.
