Week 1 2023 DraftKings picks — Pickard’s ‘pick-six’

“Small cheer and great welcome makes a merry feast.” – William Shakespeare.

Welcome back for another season. Ideally, you crushed your opponents in all your season-long drafts using the rankings provided by 5th Down Fantasy.

Just as important, we quicken the tempo and get into DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports). You will receive top-tier predictions and learn to look at player selections through a new scope. Alternate ways on strategic fields of play to attack the Draft Kings contests. I will squeeze the sponge dry of all possible knowledge to help you become a better player. Every week, I will provide six players carefully selected to help you fill your lineup. 

With a blend of professionalism and comedy, I aim to gain your trust as we roll through the season. Reach out on any of our social media platforms and let us know what you think of the selections. 

The first week of the season can be difficult if you have no date to postulate. Value plays a massive factor as we look at player selections. The safest way to do so is by dividing their projected fantasy point into their salary cost. So, if we use the example of D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA $7,000), he is projected to score 13.83 fantasy points. We would then calculate (13.83/7,000)*1,000 = 1.98. You are looking for a higher chance of winning by gaining a 3x value from your players. You want to mitigate risk as best as possible.

On a spreadsheet with all WRs that places D.K. Metcalf at WR 49, strictly on his salary value. From a top-down view, that’s a heavy investment that needs to score even more than other counterparts for less money. Take this advice with a grain of salt, as we know the ceiling for Metcalf is also much higher than a significant portion of the other WRs ahead of him. 

Week 1 DraftKings ‘Pick Six’ picks

1) Baker Mayfield QB, TB $4,900 –

This is entirely a value pick as Baker comes in at 3.21x his value based on his projected fantasy total of 15.74 points. I like the odds as the Bucs take on a Minnesota D that ranked second last against QBs last year. Mayfield has averaged 14 fantasy points per game his entire career.

With a current 3% ownership projection, this allows us to save a lot at QB with a fresh start for Mayfield and potentially the best offense he has ever been a part of. This game is also the fourth-highest projected scoring on the slate. Understand that this pick is a safe floor with a ceiling that could earn 5x his value. 

2) Joe Mixon RB, CIN $6,800 –

QB Joe Burrow is coming off a minor calf injury, and the Bengals are on the road facing a menacing Browns defense. Easing into Week 1, the Bengals look to keep control of the ball and throw it short. Head Coach Zac Taylor said he wants the team to take long drives and prevent scoring quickly. Mixon has a great floor coming into this game out of all the top backs. We want him to garner a few extra catches and work the red zone. 

3) Drake London WR, ATL $5,400 –

In Week 18 last season, London went off for 120 yards and cemented a bond with his QB. The Falcons have expressed several times they do not want to lean on the run like they needed to last year. With all the QB woes gone along with Marcus Mariota, London now stands a chance of being a premier WR in his second season.

The Panthers have a defense that finished 9th overall for fantasy points. The Falcons must stretch the field to allow their run game a chance. I project London to continue getting the lion’s share of the passing load, as he had a 29.4% target share last season.

4) T.J. Hockenson TE, MIN $5,900 –

8.6 targets, 6.0 catches, and 51.9 receiving yards is what Hockenson has averaged since he arrived in Minnesota. As I mentioned earlier, this game is predicted to be the 4th highest game, and both defenses are suspect. Even with the high cost of Hockamania, he is giving us a 2.11x value out of the gate.

Being QB Kirko Chains’ number 2 last year is something to remember. Do not fear Addison eating his lunch because Hockenson cannibalizes endzone targets as he finished the second-highest for all TEs fantasy points scored inside the 20-yard line.

5) Javonte Williams RB, DEN $5,700 –

HC Sean Payton has publicly said Williams will play a significant role in Week 1. His counter RB Perine will take some passing work, but I love Williams in my flex position this week. This week, I am projecting 18 touches and three receptions for the young stallion. With plenty of rest after his injury, I expect Williams to take on a bell-cow role. Historically, Payton has drafted well at RB (Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, etc.) and tends to stick with the guys he likes. Everybody should love an old-school bruising backfield, which I predict will occur at home vs. the Raiders.

6) Bears DST, CHI $2,900 –

The Washington Commanders will be in plenty of lineups this weekend. This is a fantastic play with plenty of upside. Kendra Scott once said, “If you are doing the same thing as everyone else, you’ve already failed.” The Bears DST might not jump off the page as a secure decision. They finished dead last in fantasy points in 2022 but went in on the Free Agency this off-season.

Bringing on board LBs Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards solidified the front line with teammates from the Titans, Nate Davis and Demarcus Walker. Once this cake was baked, they sprinkled it with the 2023 draft, adding seven selections to the defensive side of the ball. Home-field advantage will play a massive part in facing an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. 

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