By James Reagan (@James__Reagan)
Week 13 proved to be full of surprises. For example, who would have thought before the season that a clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets would have resulted in offensive fireworks? And yet, Week 13 saw four of the top nine scorers and the top three overall play in either Chiefs or Jets uniforms in what ended up being an exciting 38-31 Jets victory. This included top scorer and the formerly embattled Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith with 37 points.
The Chiefs may have lost four consecutive games and six of seven, but they still had a quarterback, a wide receiver and a tight end top 20 fantasy points this week. These three players’ effort as well as Cam Newton’s 20-point performance show once again that NFL losses often do not get in the way of top fantasy performances. Like other offensive shootouts this year, Chiefs-Jets showed that it can be really helpful to have multiple players start in a game where there’s a ton of scoring.
For many leagues, Week 13 represented the start of the fantasy playoffs. Obviously, the excitement of the playoffs can magnify the surprising successes as well as cause extreme frustration for the studs that are no shows. Unless you have leagues where the playoff rounds last two weeks, it’s win or go home from here on out. The fantasy playoffs are an exciting time of the year and here’s hoping that many of the readers on this site will soon be enjoying the sweet taste of playoff victory.
Note: Points in this article are based on ESPN standard scoring.
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Surprise of the Week: Alex Smith, KC QB.
There were a lot of weird quarterback performances this week with players like Josh McCown and Blake Bortles topping 20 fantasy points. Smith takes the cake this week after he topped the leaderboard with 37 against the Jets. Going into the game, the Jets may have represented a favorable matchup, but fantasy experts couldn’t seriously recommend Smith as anything more than a streaming option after two straight weeks where the Chiefs were completely abysmal on offense. Smith had a season-low seven points in Week 11 and wasn’t much better in Week 12 with just 12 points.
This was Smith’s second game this season with four passing touchdowns, with his other one being the Week 1 blowout win over the New England Patriots. Smith narrowly missed out on setting a new-season high for yardage, throwing for 366 as opposed to the 368 he had in Week 1. The main difference between this week’s performance and his performance in Week 1 was that Smith had 70 rushing yards this week, all of which came on one really odd play where he got past some Jets defenders, but somehow didn’t manage to score.
Even with Smith, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce going off, the Chiefs still lost their fourth in a row. Their season has cratered in true horror movie fashion. One month ago, they were 6-2 and thinking about a possible first round bye. Now, they are 6-6, in a three-way tie for the AFC West lead and clearly playing way worse football than their two divisional rivals that are also tied for first.
If there’s one thing that this week showed, it’s that Smith is going to be the captain of this offense, come whatever may over these last four weeks. Kelce was particularly effusive in his defense of Smith in postgame comments and even with the game being a loss, it’s hard to argue against this being one of the finest performances of Smith’s career.
Week’s 14 and 15 will define the Chiefs season with the Oakland Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on deck. Even now, the Chiefs still have the chance to take the division and for next week at least, Smith has a very favorable matchup against a Raiders team with a suspect defense that he scored 25 against back in Week 7. The Chargers, though, represent a tougher matchup with the seventh best passing defense in football and so, Smith owners may express caution for that game, but overall, he looks like he should be set to close the season on a hot streak as he tries to will his team to an increasingly unlikely postseason berth.
Verdict: Fact.
Studs
Rex Burkhead, NE RB.
Despite this being a season where Tom Brady has played at an MVP caliber level, Sunday represented an extremely rare occurrence in that he failed to throw a touchdown pass. This put the scoring burden on an underrated Patriots rush offense and particularly on their hottest running back over the last four games. Rex Burkhead proved himself to be more than up to the challenge with 21 points on 12 rushes for 78 yards and two touchdowns and three receptions for 25 yards.
It wasn’t just Burkhead getting the carries though. Dion Lewis had a fine day too with 15 carries for 92 yards. The big difference with Burkhead and Lewis is that the latter did not get any targets in the passing game. Lewis is now proving to be a tough back in power runs between the tackles, while Burkhead is not only a tough runner in short yards, but he’s clearly taken on the role of top pass-catching running back.
It can be really confusing trying to make sense of the Patriots rushing attack, or as some call it “Bellitricks.” But it seems like late in the season, there is finally a little clarity abut one of the league’s most mysterious backfields. What started out the season as a four-man rotation is now mostly just the work of two. Lewis is the early-down rusher and Burkhead is right behind him in carries, while also being the running back that’s most likely to be on the field on pass-heavy situations.
Trust Bill Bellichick at your own peril. He clearly doesn’t care at all about your fantasy team. But for now, Burkhead is getting tons of opportunities and he’s really looking like he could be one of those difference makers that elevates a team to a fantasy title.
Verdict: Fact.
Alfred Morris, DAL RB.
It took till game four of Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension, but we have now finally seen another Cowboys running back put up a monster fantasy game. Though Rod Smith has impressed with two consecutive games of eight or more points, he still wasn’t nearly as good as Alfred Morris was on Thursday Night Football. Morris had by far his best game as a Cowboy with 18 fantasy points on 27 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown. Make no mistake, Morris is the bellcow back for the remainder of Elliott’s suspension.
It’s interesting to note that neither Smith nor Morris made any impact at all in the receiving game, with both running backs failing to record any catches. It was just a really good day for the Cowboys’ running game even beyond Morris, with Dak Prescott rushing five times for 28 yards and Smith rushing 10 times for 27 yards. This power run game was missing big time during the Cowboys’ three game losing streak and if it can stay for the next two games, maybe the Boys will then have some hope of weathering the storm while Elliott has to sit out for his suspension.
It goes without saying that when Elliott returns, both Morris and Smith will be fantasy non-factors that shouldn’t be started in any league. But for now, Morris looks like he’ll be an excellent starter in both Weeks 14 and 15, where he’ll go against the New York Giants and the Raiders, respectively. Even with Smith getting plenty of carries, Morris can be started with confidence as he looks to suggest that even at 28 years old, he is still a dependable starting running back.
Verdict: Fact.
Duds
Jack Doyle, IND TE.
With the Indianapolis Colts having a bad matchup in Week 13 against the top passing defense in the NFL, many fantasy owners were likely trying to avoid starting Colts players. One of the only Colts that was started in many different leagues was Jack Doyle, partially due to just how frustratingly shallow the tight end position is this season. Doyle has been a somewhat consistent tight end of late, with six or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. He’s been a fairly safe tight end option and so fantasy owners assumed he could actually put up a respectable performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
And yet, that did not happen. Doyle had one fantasy point with three receptions for 16 yards on five targets. In terms of targets, he was eclipsed by the Colts’ three leading receivers: Donte Moncrief with eight and both T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers with six. Of those three receivers, Hilton had by far the best day as he shocked fantasy experts by putting up 11 points with three catches for 51 yards and a touchdown.
As has been stated previously in this column, Hilton remains one of the more inconstant fantasy wide receivers. This week marked his fourth double digit game of the year, with every other game seeing him score four or fewer points. He has enormous upside, but is too inconsistent for fantasy owners to feel good about starting him every week. Moncrief and Rogers are fantasy irrelevant, with both players having exactly one game where they’ve topped double digit fantasy points.
All this to say that Doyle is still an important member of the Colts’ offense and arguably their most consistent pass catcher. He still remains a top tight end option, as he’s currently ranked ninth place in points among tight ends this season. Doyle gets an excellent chance for a bounce back in Week 14 against the Buffalo Bills, before taking on the disappointing Denver Broncos defense in Week 15. He should be in line for decent fantasy playoff performances and should therefore be trusted as a starting tight end in most fantasy leagues.
Verdict: Fiction.
Matt Ryan, ATL QB.
As one of the quarterbacks who led many fantasy owners to championships in 2016, Matt Ryan looked to be one of the more obvious regression candidates for 2017. Yet he still was consistently taken among the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy drafts and still seems to enjoy a reputation as one of the best QB’s in the NFL. Ryan has overall had a rough season and that continued in Week 13 with a dreadful six points as his Atlanta Falcons fell 14-9 to the Minnesota Vikings.
Ryan went 16-of-29 for 173 yards and no touchdown or interceptions. It was so bad that he actually finished last among all quarterbacks that started every game. He still has yet to top 20 points on the season and has now thrown for under 200 yards in two of his past three games.
Unfortunately, things don’t look to be getting better for Ryan in the near future. In a weird scheduling quirk, the Falcons play both their games against the New Orleans Saints extremely late in the season. In both Weeks 14 and 16, Ryan will be facing a brutal matchup against a tough Saints’ pass defense. He does get a way easier matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15, but at this point it’s not a guarantee that Ryan can even capitalize on those great matchups and so, it would be best to try to find another quarterback to start if at all possible.
Verdict: Fact.
DeSean Jackson, TB WR.
Sometimes free agent acquisitions that sound like a great idea just don’t end up working out as expected. DeSean Jackson is the case in point as like so many Buccaneers this season, he just hasn’t played as well as people had thought. Back when he joined the Bucs in free agency, experts raved about their offense possibly being one of the best in the NFL. Now, the team is 4-8 with a dreadful defense and an offense that has struggled a lot due to Jameis Winston’s inconsistent season.
Jackson had put season-highs in receptions (eight) and targets (11) in Week 12, so there had been some optimism for his Week 13 matchup against the Green Bay Packers. That optimism didn’t materialize at all with Jackson earning two fantasy points with two receptions for 24 yards on three targets. An extremely disappointing stat line especially when considering that the Packers are not at all known for having a suffocating pass defense.
Jackson is looking at the Detroit Lions and the Falcons rematch for this next two games. Both of these pass defenses have had some promising games, while it’s still very concerning that Jackson finished fifth on his team in targets, behind Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, Peyton Barber and Adam Humphries. Evans and Brate are clearly the Bucs’ pass catchers to own in fantasy, while Barber’s breakout game this past week could result in him getting some more looks in the passing game. Jackson does still have tantalizing speed, but it’s clear that he has declined this season and that for the most part, he is a very risky player to trust as a fantasy starter.
Verdict: Fact.
