“It’s a good thing to have all the props pulled out from under us occasionally. It gives us some sense of what is rock under our feet, and what is sand.” – Madeleine L’Engle.
Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts? Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry? Netflix has blessed all men in a relationship with a TV show called Love is Blind. You try to avoid it because it is such a ridiculous TV show. Yet, once you engage and continuously trash-talk it for its 45-60-minute runtime, the next episode starts, and you begin the cycle anew.
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It got me thinking about player values and how we hold them by name and matchups. What if there was a way to apply the Love is Blind methodology to fantasy football?
The show’s concept is that two people are placed in separate pods and communicate without seeing one another. Falling in love with their personality is the accomplishment vs. appearance. So let’s put two players in pods, and we will use our love language—statistical data of Vegas odds.
Sometimes, your gut tells you one thing, and data tells you another. Vegas does not put up wagers that are easily guessable. We can use this to our benefit by looking at player prop bets. Here are two examples for this week.
Josh Allen has an over/under of:
35.5 Rushing Yards
23.5 Passing Completions
36.5 Passing Attempts
268.5 Passing Yards.
Jalen Hurts has an over/under of:
42.5 Rushing Yards
20.5 Passing Completions
31.5 Passing Attempts
230.5 Passing Yards.
If you are torn by these two players, this gives you an easy view of their expected outcomes. The more you can simplify and refine your process, the more effective you will be. Use these numbers to help you find that 1% edge needed to beat your competition.
Now that it is that time of year when kids are back to school, I will inundate you with a homework assignment. I will offer two picks at each position with no write-up for my selections. I will have lineups built around both players for cash and tournaments. Challenge yourself to do the above exercise and see which outcome you like better. I did the first QB for you already.
“Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.”
Week 4 ‘Pick-Six’ Picks
Josh Allen (QB, BUF) $8,200
Russel Wilson (QB, DEN) $5,800
Javente Williams (RB, DEN) $5,500
Jermore Ford (RB, CLE) $5,400
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN) $5,800
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)$5,300
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC) $3,600
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT) $3,400
Colts (DST, IND) $2,900
Raiders (DST, LV) $2,300
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