Welcome to week 10. Today, we will cover my game spread selections, my DrafKings players that I love this week, and injuries in various sports with some stats that will blow your mind.
Week 10 Spread Picks
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3
This game boils down to 2 terrible offenses duking it out. Defensively, the Steelers haven’t allowed an end zone target for a touchdown since Week 4. The Packers are dead last in the first half, scoring with an abysmal 4.5 ppg. Cameron Hayward is back for the Steelers, and they will wreak havoc all day at home.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings +3
New Orleans is picking up steam with a whopping 26.6 points per game in their last five appearances. Minnesota does have the highest blitz rate in the league, with 51.3% garnering 24 sacks on the season. Almost all of Derek Carr’s metrics remain the same when facing the blitz, but one stat. 2 of his four interceptions have come when under pressure. Both teams are 2-7 with the O/U, but I like the Saints to cover –3.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5
C.J. Stroud eviscerated the Buccaneers but will be without his number 1 WR Nico Collins and RB Dameon Pierce. He is on the road against a white-hot Bengals team. Since Week 4, the Bengals have forced a league-high 20.8% of drives ending in turnovers. Going back to Week 5, no quarterback has a higher Comp% (75.8) or Passer Rating (111.2) than Joe Burrow, and during that same period, Joe Burrow is also third in FPPG, and Ja’Marr Chase is second only to Tyreek Hill. Bengals cover the –6.5
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5
“Run, Forest Run!” The Raves are 1st in rushing percentage, and the Browns are 3rd. The previous meeting between these two teams was in Cleveland, and Baltimore was only a 1.5-point favorite with Deshaun Watson sidelined. Since week 5, these are statistically the two best defenses. The game will be close, and I am going for the Browns to cover the 6.5 spread.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers –2.5
Tennesse played a Thursday night game, earning them a little more rest. The Buccaneer’s secondary consists of cardboard cutouts and allows the highest 3rd down conversion in the league. On the flip side, the Titan’s defense is very stingy, only allowing eight passing TDs on the season. The Buccs, though, are ranked #7 against the rush, and I would instead take my chances on Baker Mayfield shooting the game out over a rookie QB on the road. Buccs cover the -2.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars +3
This is my upset game of the week. Both teams are coming off a bye; the 49ers are on a three-game losing streak, and the Jaguars are on a five-game winning streak. The Jaguars are in the top 3 against the rush in all metrics. San Francisco averages 27.3 points per game, and the Jags are right there with 24.1 points per game. Both teams have an elite RB, but The 49ers have been getting shredded by the pass, and the Jaguars will be the healthiest they have been all season. Give me the over on Jaguars +3
Detroit Lions @ Los Angelas Chargers +3
Currently, the Lions are getting 63% of the bettor’s attention. Makes sense with a fantastic record of 6-2 against the spread. The Detroit squad is on the road, and they have been beaten by five teams with a losing record. The Chargers are ranked #2 in red zone touchdown percentage on the season. The Lions are allowing the 7th highest TD% in the league. Que the Creed and play “with arms wide open.” Three of the four losses suffered by the Chargers have been from the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Cowboys.
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals -1.5
Kyler Murray’s return home presents some pizzas. We are going to watch Falcons Coach Arthur Smith, who could be on the 1-yard line with 1st and goal, and he would rather throw hail maries and jet sweeps to his TE than allow his #1 overall draft pick Bijon Mustard Robinson to smash the ball in. Maybe an ode to Pete Carroll? Taylor Heinicke ranks 3rd in off-target percentage with 16.9. The Cardinal’s defense has been awful, but with the return of Mighty Mouse, I expect them to be off the field more today. Cardinals Cover the +1.5
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks = Seahawks cover -6
The Commanders have allowed 13 end zone targets and eight of those to convert for a touchdown since Week 4. Since Week 5, Sam Howell leads the league with 302.0 passing YPG
The Seahawks haven’t had a quarterback throw for more than 250 yards since Week 3.
64% of the early picks lay the points with the home side. We can’t go against smart money all the time. Commanders have traded away some key pieces on defense, and I don’t see a way where Seattle doesn’t cover. I know I took a shot at Pete Carroll, but he is 48-29-4 ATS coming off a loss.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys = Giants cover +17.5
Tommy DeVito …enough said. Take the Cowboys at home to cover the -17.5, who are averaging 37 points when at home this season.
1. Injuries in male professional sports have been reported as high as 3.61 per 1000 athletes in baseball, 19.3 in basketball, 49.4 in ice hockey, and 64.7 in football.
2. Injuries in Children – More than 3.5 million children ages 14 and younger get hurt annually playing sports or participating in recreational activities.
3. Sports and recreational activities contribute to approximately 21 percent of all traumatic brain injuries among American children.
4. Almost 50 percent of head injuries sustained in sports or recreational activities occur during bicycling, skateboarding, or skating incidents.
5. The highest injury rates occur in sports involving contact and collisions.
6. More severe injuries occur during individual sports and recreational activities.
7. Most organized sports-related injuries (62 percent) occur during practice.
8. Stats per sport:
Basketball. More than 170,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for basketball-related injuries.
Baseball and softball. Nearly 110,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for baseball-related injuries. Baseball also has the highest fatality rate among sports for children ages 5 to 14, with three to four children dying from baseball injuries each year.
Bicycling. More than 200,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for bicycle-related injuries.
Football. Almost 215,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for football-related injuries.
Ice hockey. More than 20,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for ice hockey-related injuries.
In-line and roller skating. More than 47,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for in-line skating-related injuries.
Skateboarding. More than 66,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for skateboarding-related injuries.
Sledding or toboggan. More than 16,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for sledding-related injuries.
Snow skiing or snowboarding. More than 25,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for snowboarding and snow skiing-related injuries.
Soccer. About 88,000 children ages 5 to 14 were treated in hospital emergency rooms for soccer-related injuries.
Trampolines. About 65,000 children ages 14 and under were treated in hospital emergency rooms for trampoline-related injuries.
Week 10 ‘Pick-Six’ Pics
1) Kyler Murray QB, ARI $5,900
2) Bijan Robinson RB, ATL $6,000
3) Tank Dell WR, HOU $5,500
4) Evan Engram TE, JAX $4,500
5) Dionte Johnson, PIT $5,400
6) Cowboys DST, DAL $4,400
Subscribe to our newsletter on Substack to get full access to 5th Down Fantasy’s award-winning fantasy football player rankings and our weekly playbook email packed with everything you need to win big on Sunday. Your subscription will also help keep 5thDownFantasy.com the best FREE fantasy football advice website on the planet. Learn more.