“Hey, man, you all just back off, all of you. I’ve worked really hard this year to put together an amazing team. I have studied the waiver wire, I know all the sleepers, I have done the bye-week plug-ins—I have done it all. And all I want to do is watch the game and find out how my team does.” – Jenny (from the show ‘The League’)
Here we are, the last week of the regular season in fantasy football. Following the 5th Down Fantasy rankings, you should enjoy a mimosa and watch the others fight for their shot at glory with a playoff spot with yours secured. Let’s finish on a high note with a spicy DFS selection this week, securing you the bag.
Week 14 ‘Pick-Six’ Picks:
1) Lamar Jackson QB, BAL $7,700 – The top two most expensive quarterbacks go head-to-head this week as Josh Allen’s Bills visit Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. On DraftKings, Jackson has the second-highest ceiling projection and the third-highest median and floor projections in the aggregate projections. The Ravens are scheduled to take on the Rams at home. He threw four touchdowns and added 44.7 rushing yards per game in his last three games before the bye, and he continues to be the focal point of the Ravens offense.
His rushing potential gives him a very high ceiling, as he has demonstrated with five rushing scores on the season. He averaged 55.0 rushing yards per game in his six home games and has averaged over 20 fantasy points per contest in Baltimore. In his last meeting with the Rams, Jackson went off for a memorable five passing touchdowns and 95 rushing yards back in 2019. This season, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 235.5 passing yards against L.A. while totaling 13 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in 12 contests. If you’re looking for a contrarian way to attack this slate, Jackson brings a high ceiling and good leverage since Mahomes and Allen will get plenty of attention and ownership in their spotlight matchup Sunday in the late game.
2) Zack Moss RB, IND $5,900 – Last week, Moss let his backers down with just 51 yards on 19 carries, but he was in a tough matchup on the road against the Titans. This week, he should find things much easier going against the Bengals, whose rush defense has struggled this season. The Bengals allow the fifth-most yards per carry in the league and have surrendered five running back touchdowns in the last four weeks, along with 93.8 rushing yards and 26.8 receiving yards per game. The only good news for Moss to come out of last week was that he got many opportunities. He played 94% of the team’s snaps and got eight rushes and one target in the red zone in addition to his monopoly on the work outside the 20-yard line. With so many opportunities, he should be able to bounce back this week.
He showed he could be a fantasy force when covering for Taylor early this season by averaging 109.25 rushing yards per game in his first four games. He had four touchdowns during that stretch, with three rushing scores and one more touchdown as part of his eight receptions.
If you are looking for other value plays, Breece Hall and Joe Mixon are also worth a look. Mixon is a solid play on DraftKings, with an 89% Bargain Rating.
3) Michael Pittman Jr. WR, IND $7,300 – Michael Pittman Jr. has been a target monster lately, with 12 or more targets in three straight games. He erupted against Tennessee last week, catching 11 of 16 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. He’s still underpriced for his role but doesn’t have the name recognition of other high-end receivers, leaving his ownership and price in check. He gets another plus matchup here, as Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most yards per target to opposing receivers. They’ve allowed the 15th-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers, but they’re trending in the wrong direction. Pittman is second in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary at the position and is the top option in my Cash Game and Tournament Model.
4) Isaiah Likely TE, BAL $3,500 – It’s a pretty ugly week for cheap tight ends. There are no apparent values at the lower end of the price range, with plenty of guys seemingly overpriced for their likeliest production. Thanks to his starting role with Mark Andrews on IR, I’m leaning towards Isaih Likely for cash games. Likely posted a solid 4/40/0 line on six targets in his first game in relief of Andrews. These are not exactly elite numbers, but they are certainly acceptable at his price range. He projects similarly this week against an exploitable Rams pass defense. His path to upside is pretty thin — and heavily relies on falling into the endzone for a touchdown — but the same can be said for most of the tight ends this week.
5) Drake London, ATL $4,600 – If there’s ever a week for Drake London to break out, it’s this week. He’s been hampered all year by the Falcons’ ridiculously low pass rate, which ranks 32nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Still, the matchup with the Bucs tends to force opponents to throw, and Tampa ranks 30th in points allowed to receivers. I like London’s GPP upside.
6) Bears DST, CHI $2,400 – The Bears haven’t allowed more than 76 rushing yards to a running back this year (David Montgomery) and have the highest Stuff% (52.1). Outside of Mike Evans (6-171-1, 23.1 points in Week 2), no wide receiver has more than 77 receiving yards or 14.6 points against the Bears this year. Plus, they are home for the holidays, which always adds a little edge.
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