This team-based draft strategy aims to identify which 49ers are primed for fantasy opportunities in 2019. The series serves as an assessment of each offense and its prospects heading into next season. The stats used for this research are based on a half-PPR scoring format. Redraft rankings are listed for each player in parentheses (not that I like using parentheses).
San Francisco 49ers: No. 22 fantasy offense in 2018 (18th in passing, 26th in rushing)
All 32 teams ranked in terms of fantasy offense. Click on a team name to see that team’s preview. You can read an overview here.
The 49ers have all the offensive firepower necessary for a breakout season, but it all depends on the pieces coming together. Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon are returning from torn ACLs to play with newcomers Tevin Coleman and Deebo Samuel. That’s a lot of moving parts and the man tasked with turning it all into a functional offense is Kyle Shanahan. The third-year head coach is revered around the league and considered one of the brightest young minds in the game. He has some outstanding coaching performances on his resume, including RGIII’s rookie season and the Falcons’ second-ranked 2016 offense. Shanahan has since rebuilt the 49ers roster to his liking, and he is expected to deliver a top-10 scoring offense this season.
Having Jimmy Garoppolo back certainly helps matters. He was sensational to close out the 2017 season, throwing for 1,542 yards in five starts. Sustained over a full 16 games, that would have put him just under 5,000 passing yards. The optimism surrounding the Niners offense was palpable, but it all came to a grinding halt when Garoppolo tore his ACL in week 3.
Garoppolo returns this year with a better understanding of Kyle Shanahan’s playbook and a more-evolved arsenal of receiving weapons. He could realistically take a run at the MVP award this year, and yet he’s currently the QB21 in fantasy football. It’s a testament to the depth at the quarterback position this season, but Garoppolo (QB17) offers a safe floor of production that is valuable in 2QB leagues.
The 49ers backfield is going to be a headache to figure out each week, which is probably smart considering all the injuries they sustained last year. Jerick McKinnon (RB44) still hasn’t returned to practice since tearing his ACL 11 months ago and Matt Breida has had his own durability issues. Breida was clocked at 22.09 mph during a run against Seattle, making him the fastest ball carrier in the league. His supreme agility makes Breida (RB49) the perfect change-of-pace back in this offense, but he’s currently third on the depth chart.
Tevin Coleman is the presumptive starter in San Francisco after signing in free agency. He had a career year under Shanahan in 2016 but struggled to produce with an increased workload last year. Coleman (RB31) has plenty of competition for touches this season, making him an unreliable weekly fantasy starter. One of these running backs will be fantasy-relevant due to the offense, but it all depends who’s healthy and fits the scheme. I need to see more before I feel comfortable investing in any of these backs at their current price.
Meanwhile, the wide receiver position is fraught with opportunity for a breakout performance. Dante Pettis is the leading candidate to emerge after flashing his ability last year—he was the WR6 from weeks 12-15. The second-year receiver admitted his head was spinning early last season, which is common for receivers in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He now has a firm grip on the playbook and a path towards 100+ targets, so what’s not to like? Pettis (WR28) is a solid breakout candidate in a relatively shallow pool of Niners receivers.
San Francisco also drafted Deebo Samuel in the second round of the 2019 draft. He’s been showing off his stellar footwork and route-running ability in training camp, but Samuel could struggle early as a rookie. The Shanahan system is notorious for its complexity—Taylor Gabriel is the all-time leader in rookie receiving yards with 621 yards. It’s difficult to trust any rookie in this offense, independent of talent.
The forgotten man in the Niners offense is Marquise Goodwin. The former track star showed incredible chemistry with Jimmy G, producing as the WR10 to close out 2017. Injuries and a family emergency turning last season into a literal nightmare for Goodwin, but he has the speed, talent, and savvy to bounce back. Goodwin (WR62) is the designated deep-threat in an offense that has the capacity to explode this year, making him a valuable late-round target in best ball leagues.
It’s George Kittle’s world and we’re all just living in it. He blew all expectations out of the water last year with 1,377 receiving yards, 870 of which came after the catch. That agility in the open field helped him break off nine explosive plays last year, third-most in the league. Jimmy Garoppolo likes to spread the ball around, so Kittle likely won’t see 136 targets again, but he’s also a strong candidate for positive touchdown regression. Kittle scored only five TDs last year and has the frame to be a dangerous red zone weapon. As far as draft strategy goes, Kittle (TE2) is a great option if you’ve already taken your RB1 and WR1. It’s nice to have a guy who actually cares about your fantasy team.
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