NFL Superbowl Betting Picks: Teaser and Over/Under

Hello Friends! It’s Superbowl time! We are down to one final game between the best QB in the world against the overall best team, should be another Superbowl for the books.

With only one game left this week we will make a teaser with one of the sides and one of the totals. Since there are not more teaser bets to make, I decided to include some bonus Superbowl bets below, there is nothing more fun than Superbowl prop bets. 

Well try to finish the year on a high note and go for the ever-elusive perfect week, thanks for reading any articles this year! Good luck, and happy winning! 

6-point Teaser of the Week: 

49ers vs Chiefs (+8) – It seems obvious to back Mahomes and Reid as they are the best QB/Head Coach combo going right now, but on top of that they also have the best defense that Mahomes has ever played with. While the Chiefs offense isn’t the high explosive one we are used to seeing, they seem to have finally hit their stride at the right time, finally figuring out what their best lineups are (any, where Toney/Hardman are on the bench).

With the return of playoff Travis Kelce and the emergence of Rashee Rice this year, Mahomes has two stud wide receivers who grade very high against zone coverage (what the 49ers predominantly run). Those two pass catchers, along with Isiah Pacheco in the run game (49ers defense has been gashed by running backs so far in the playoffs) and a trusty kicker in Harrison Butker should give the Chiefs enough points to get the job done. Also, a big difference between Goff last game and Mahomes is that if needed Mahomes can get out of the pocket and scramble for first downs, something that has been an issue for San Fran’s defense. Now to the other side of the ball where the game may actually be decided.

The matchup that Chiefs backers should love is Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator Steve Spagnola against Brock Purdy making his first Superbowl start. While CMC should be able to run all over this defense, I think Spagnola will be able to scheme up enough different fronts and blitz to force Purdy into some turnovers. The Chiefs will also need their defensive MVP Chris Jones to have as good as a game as Mahomes has on the offensive side, other than Trent Williams I like his matchups against the rest of the 49ers offensive line. I’m trusting the Chiefs stars and hall-of-fame coaches to raise the Lombardi Trophy once again as the champions of the NFL, but even if they don’t win, you still get a whole TD buffer in this teaser.

49ers vs Chiefs (Under 53.5) – As I said above this is the best Chiefs defense in the Mahomes era and they will matchup with a San Fran defense with playmakers all over the field. Both teams also like to establish their running games which should help keep the clock running all game. Leaning under seems correct when taking the Chiefs in a teaser this season, as their second-half under have gone 18-2! They love to get a first half lead then milk the clock in the second half with Pacheco’s run game and Mahomes keeping drives alive on 3^rd downs with his magic, sucking up time of possession. The worry is that with two of the best offensive schemers having two weeks to prepare an offensive script for the start of the game could lead to early points turning this game into more of a shootout than expected. I will trust the process and hope this Chiefs team tries to win this Superbowl as the defensive minded, time of possession team it is.

Bonus Super Bowl Bets: 

Travis Kelce Super Bowl MVP +1200 – Yes a tight end has never won Superbowl MVP, but this just feels like the perfect set up for it. Playoff Kelce has come back in 2024 with a vengeance after two huge performances the last two games against Baltimore and Buffalo. You can make an easy argument Kelce has been the Chiefs MVP these playoffs so far, so getting MVP odds at this number seems too good to pass up. The 49ers have a solid defense against tight ends but they do give up big games when playing an elite tight end, just as Sam LaPorta did last week with 9 catches for 97 yards. While it seems likely if the Chiefs win that Mahomes is again the MVP but after winning two already we may see some voter fatigue. Remember after Brady won the fits two super bowl MVPs that Deion Branch won the third, and then after he won the next two – Edelman took home MVP. So there is precedence for a pass catcher to win over an all time great QB after the QB already won two in a row, and hey 20% of the vote is done by the fans which doesn’t hurt this bet (shoutout swifties). 

Isiah Pacheco over 66.5 rushing yards – While everyone is talking about how Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant, Isiah Pacheco was only taken 11 picks ahead of Purdy in that same draft. With the Chiefs leaning more into their amazing defense this year they have had to rely more on the run game than ever before, luckily Pacheco has stepped up and then some. Pacheco has stepped up even more in the playoffs, as he has hit this number in all three playoff games so far. If the 49ers defense has had a weakness these playoffs it has been their rushing defense which was shredded by Aaron Jones and both Lions running backs. Take Pacheco to be the latest running back to have a big performance against San Francisco. 

Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 Touchdowns – While the 49ers defense has been giving up a lot of rushing yards this season, when it comes to the redzone they have been more vulnerable to the pass. So while I think Pacheco while do a lot of the work between the 20s, I think Mahomes will be the one to finish drives. 16 of the 26 redzone touchdowns given up by the 49ers this season were passing touchdowns, including in the playoffs where 3 of the 5 redzone touchdowns given up were passes. Once in the redzone Andy Reid will trust Mahomes to get the job done, unless they get to the 1 yard line to run it in with Pacheco or do a crazy Andy Reid reverse play to a wide receiver. I expect Mahomes to find Kelce for at least 1 touchdown and find a way to get a second. Can’t take the Chiefs to win and not have a Mahomes bet, trust the best in the world to get two scores.

Just For Fun Props: 

Gatorade Color (Red) – Both teams main color is red, seems like as good a reason as any. 

Coin Toss (Heads) – Tails never fails is an awesome rhyme, but I’ve always been a heads guy.  

National Anthem Length (Over) – This seems to go over every year, and why not? This is your moment. You have the world watching you sing, take as long as you want! (not too long though we want the game to start)