This 2022 wide receiver class has been one of the least that we have seen in years. The prime of the position this year is in the low-end WR1s and high-end WR2s. Because so many managers may find themselves lacking a top receiver to lead their core, it’s important to identify potential breakout stars to target in fantasy drafts.
Without further ado, here are my top 5 breakout candidates at the wide receiver position.
Note: The top 3 candidates on this list are some of the best players in terms of their value compared to ADP you will find in the entire draft.
1. Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
In 2021, Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton only had 776 yards with two touchdowns, and I would be shocked if both of those stats failed to improve in 2022. Simply put, those stats are not at all representative of Sutton’s talent.
Never in his career has Sutton had a quarterback nearly as skilled as Russell Wilson. Of all the quarterbacks Sutton has played with, Drew Lock started the most games, so we can begin by examining him.
A stat used by playerprofiler.com called Deep Ball Catchable Pass Rate (DBCPR) measures how accurate deep passes by a quarterback are. Lock’s 2021 DBCPR was 56.5%, while Wilson had a DBCPR of 67.5%, while also ranking 5th in the league in deep pass attempts.
Wilson’s entrance into the Denver scene marks a new era in the Mile High City, one of quarterback stability, something the Broncos haven’t had since Peyton Manning. Furthermore, the vast majority of Wilson’s targets have gone to boundary receivers, which is exactly what Sutton is.
We have been waiting for Sutton to emerge as a consistently productive wide receiver. At 100% health with a better QB, this is the year Sutton finally breaks out into the full potential we Sutton fans saw in him.
2. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Arizona Cardinals
When Marquise Brown was traded to Arizona on draft night, many were confused at first, but it soon became obvious why. Arizona wanted to follow the new, yet successful trend of reuniting QBs with their college receivers to build upon pre-existing chemistry. At Oklahoma University, Brown totaled almost 1800 yards with Murray as his quarterback in 2018.
Being the top wide receiver selected in the 2019 draft, many expected Hollywood to take the league by storm in the revamped Ravens offense. At first, he did, when he exploded against the Dolphins in Week 1. However, after that, he never produced on a regular basis until 2021 when Brown had his first 1000-yard season, with an emphasis on the word ‘first’. I expect many more 1000-yard seasons to come for Hollywood.
With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first 6 games of the season, Brown will show the world why we call him Hollywood. Brown has already shown traces of elite talent and will take center stage in an offense that is more pass-friendly than Baltimore’s. It should not surprise anyone that I consider Hollywood Brown a dark horse candidate to be a top 10 wide receiver in 2022.
3. Allen Robinson II, Los Angeles Rams
Technically, Allen Robinson already had his breakout season years ago, but his production has been a roller coaster ever since. In 2021, we saw his production take a huge hit, making it arguably the worst season of his career. I do, however, think that 2022 will be a rebound year for Robinson.
First off, A-Rob will be playing in a dynamic offense led by a Super Bowl-winning QB for the first time in his career. One of Matthew Stafford’s top targets last year, Robert Woods, is now on the Titans, and Robinson is viewed as his replacement. Reports have indicated that Robinson has taken Rams training camp by storm, thriving in Woods’ role.
Robinson only had 38 targets last season. I expect that number to double at the very least. As for touchdowns? I expect that number to be octupled at the minimum, but that doesn’t say very much considering he only had one touchdown in the Bears’ dormant offense last year. The point is that Robinson’s production is about to take a monster leap in Los Angeles.
4. Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
To me, the definition of a breakout player is a player who takes a big leap and unlocks their true potential. Michael Pittman fits the bill. Yes, Pittman has been great so far in Indy, and yes, he’s already a must-start every week, but no, he has not yet reached the height of his career.
Last season, Pittman had a 1,000-yard season with Carson Wentz, who is known as one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the NFL. Now, Matt Ryan is at the helm in Indy, which should improve the offense immensely. Ryan has not made many headlines in recent years, but he has quietly been one of the league’s most accurate QBs. Ryan also turned Calvin Ridley from a guy you could find on waivers into one of the top wideouts in the NFL.
The stage is set for Ryan to make one more run at a Super Bowl and he will lean on Pittman to help him get there. Expect great things from this dangerous duo.
5. Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
For Rashod Bateman, there isn’t much analysis needed, as his reasoning for being on this list is quite simple.
The Ravens traded Hollywood Brown to Arizona and did not add much receiving help to Lamar Jackson’s corps. This move frees up almost 25% of Baltimore’s targets from last year, and one must assume the bulk of that would go to Bateman considering Mark Andrews already saw a whopping 156 targets as a tight end last year. Going hand in hand with that, one could also guess that WR Devin Duvernay could get some work in this season despite his lack of proven results.
Yes, Bateman is a risky pick, but it’s a risk I’d be willing to take. There’s a decent chance Bateman could be a FLEX start for the whole season, but the upside is impossible to ignore. I like the odds of Bateman emerging as a weekly WR2 starter, but only time will tell on that.
BONUS: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
The reason Jerry Jeudy is considered a “bonus” is that the reasoning for why he is a breakout candidate is almost identical to that of Sutton. Tim Patrick’s ACL tear was unfortunate but opened up more targets for Jeudy as well. New Broncos Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett is a quarterback specialist who knows to play to a quarterback’s strengths.
With two highly talented outside receivers paired with an elite quarterback, Hackett could crack the code to become an offensive powerhouse, one that fantasy owners should want to be a part of. I believe we are looking at a duo that will become the next DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combo that thrived in Seattle.
