Fantasy players on the rise: A look at the fantasy players who stood out in Week 12 and who may be poised to put up big numbers moving forward.
Week 12 of the 2019 NFL season has come and gone! This past week saw Lamar Jackson explode in LA, San Francisco dominate the Packers and a bonified divisional shoot-out in the Big Easy. Let’s start this weeks rundown with a familiar face:
LAMAR JACKSON (Baltimore Ravens)
Lamar Jackson’s rise from 32nd overall pick in the 2018 draft to where he is today has been nothing short of awe-inspiring.
The former Heisman Trophy winner from Louisville ran into the hearts and minds of fans across the nation in college, and he continued running full speed on Monday Night Football. Jackson cut through the Rams defense like a hot knife through butter all night long, passing for 5 TDs before ultimately being replaced by Robert Griffin III with almost the entire fourth quarter left to play. Jackson’s value to the Ravens offense cannot be overstated. Baltimore took great care this off-season in putting together a roster that would play to the strengths and tendencies of their second-year quarterback, and the results have left Jackson standing beside only Russell Wilson atop the league MVP discussion through 12 weeks.
From a fantasy perspective, Jackson has been a bonified league winner, posting a total of (311 points) in standard leagues, and scoring over 25 points in all four games this past month. He’ll face his toughest challenge of the season next week against the San Francisco 49ers in what could be a potential Super Bowl preview. You’re starting him regardless, but this one will have the entire country tuning in.
D.J. MOORE (Carolina Panthers)
Let’s jump from the NFL’s resident supernova to one of the league’s most overlooked breakout stars. Despite losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Saints on Sunday afternoon, the Panthers have plenty of things to be thankful for this week. D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey would be at the top of anyone’s list this holiday season.
Over the past month, Moore has eclipsed 100+ yards receiving in three of four contests and hauled in 30 balls on an astounding 45 targets from Kyle Allen. Moore’s performance on Sunday was a historic one for the Panthers franchise. His stat line of (6 Rec/126 Yds/2 TD’s) marked the first time a Carolina wideout had eclipsed 125 yards & 2 TD’s in a game since Steve Smith did it in 2011. Being mentioned in the same breath as Smith in Carolina is no faint praise, and Smith himself complimented Moore saying, “They (the Panthers) haven’t been able to replace me, until now”.
It appears the Panthers have hit the jackpot with Moore in his second season, and his absurd target share should make him a slam dunk start for fantasy owners against a threadbare Washington secondary in Week 13.
CHRIS GODWIN (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
While we’re on the topic of second-year breakout stars, we need to talk about what Chris Godwin has done this season. Godwin is no stranger to this rundown, and he was no stranger to most fantasy analysts heading into 2019 league drafts.
Godwin was projected to be one of the major breakout candidates of the year, and his mid 3rd round/High 4th round projected value was a price most owners were willing to pay to hop aboard his hype train. Those who bought in have been rewarded with everything they could’ve hoped for, and more. Coming it at just a hair under 200 fantasy points on the year in standard formats, Godwin has been a revelation for both the Tampa Bay Bucs and fantasy owners. The second-year stud showcased his power in Week 12 by shredding the Falcons secondary for a final line of (7 Rec/184 Yds/2 TDs).
The two touchdowns were Godwins league-leading eighth and ninth of the year, and his 184 yards marked his 5th game with 100+ receiving yards. His fantasy ceiling is located somewhere in the stratosphere, and his floor is safe on a weekly basis due to a healthy target share (averaging 8 targets per week). Tampa may not have their franchise QB in Winston, but they certainly could argue they have the best young WR tandem in the league between Godwin and Mike Evans.
RASHAAD PENNY (Seattle Seahawks)
As the old saying goes “When opportunity knocks…”. That had to have been the personal mantra of Rashaad Penny when he got his chance to make a difference in Week 12 against the Eagles.
In a tight game that saw neither offense move the ball particularly well, Penny was entrusted with the Seahawks backfield due to Chris Carsons continued fumbling issues. Penny stepped up to the plate and hit a home run almost instantly, finding a crease in Philly’s defensive line and taking a 50+ yard run to the house to give Seattle the lead that would ultimately win them the game.
Penny’s performance is made even more impressive because of the strength of the opponent he was tasked to attack. Philly had only allowed a single 100+ yard rusher on the year until this past week (Ezekiel Elliott), but Penny etched his name alongside Zeke with his final line of (14 carries/129 yards/TD). Penny’s breakout will make him one of the most popular waiver wire claims heading into Week 13, but we advise caution, as Pete Carroll has shown a fondness for Carson despite his issues holding on the ball.
The best approach for Penny in the short term is to assume a committee situation with Carson and hold him to see how he performs against Minnesota. He should be added in all leagues, but not trusted just yet.
DERRICK HENRY (Tennessee Titans)
If a football team can have a kryptonite-like weakness, then Derrick Henry is exactly that for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Titans deceptively agile bruising back has practically built an entirely separate career highlight reel against Jacksonville alone in his first three years in the league. Nearly one year after his unbelievable 238 rushing yard/4 TD outing against Jacksonville, Henry performed an encore in front of an adoring home crowd that chanted his name seemingly all day long. The big man punished the Jags with a final stat line of (19 carries/159 yards/2 Tds). The two scores were Henry’s eighth and ninth touchdowns of 2019, and this also marked his third 100+ rushing yard game of the season.
For a player that was often marked as a fantasy risk and an up & down start by many (including yours truly), Henry has proven himself to be as good as fantasy gold this season. With point totals of 20 or more in three of his past four contests, it’s hard to argue that the Titans RB isn’t one of the best rushers in fantasy this year, regardless of format.
ALLEN ROBINSON (Chicago Bears)
There’s an entire laundry list worth of negatives that could (and should) be thrown at the Chicago Bears offense under Mitch Trubisky. The quarterback’s poor footwork, lack of accuracy and well-noted regression in Year two under Matt Nagy are all things that you will frequently see atop sports blogs and websites across the industry.
Trubisky has given the Bears (and fantasy fans) one great thing in 2019 though, and that’s the return of Allen Robinson to fringe WR1 status. The former Jaguars stand-out was brought to Chicago to give the Bears the supersized play-maker they were missing after the era of Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery came to an end. His injury woes were a cause for concern, but this season Robinson has made them look like a thing of the past. His performance on Sunday afternoon against the New York Giants was a reminder of just how good he can be (6 rec/131 yards/TD).
Robinson’s yardage total is already impressive before you realize he had a 60+ yard catch and run erased due to penalties. His 4 TD’s through twelve weeks already match his 2018 season total, and his 764 receiving yards have already eclipsed his total from last season. Robinson is limited by the play of his quarterback (as every Bears player is), but his target share (averaging 9 targets per game) makes him a locked-in WR2/low end WR1 depending on match-up on a weekly basis. Don’t be afraid to fire him up against a beatable Lions secondary on Thanksgiving.
JARVIS LANDRY (Cleveland Browns)
I know what you’re thinking…Jarvis Landry AND Derrick Henry on the same list? This can’t possibly be the same writer as before. Rest assured dear reader, it’s still me, but I’ve come to the realization that my prior beliefs about these players may not have been wholly accurate.
Landry, in particular, has really impressed me over the past month. With OBJ playing well below the superstar level for most of the season, his former LSU teammate has turned up his game to a new level during Cleveland’s most important (and winnable) portion of its schedule. Over the past four game’s Landry has supercharged his production, scoring five touchdowns (all 5 of his scores this season) over that span, and seeing an average target total of 10 per contest. With Baker Mayfield’s struggles receiving national attention, it seems as if Landry has taken it upon himself to become the tide that attempts to lift all boats in the Cleveland offense.
He’s rewritten my expectations for what he can be as a WR over the past month, and that should be music to the ears of Browns fans everywhere. He should be a locked and loaded WR2/fringe WR1 in PPR formats for the next 3 weeks against (PIT/CIN/ARI).
GEORGE KITTLE (San Francisco 49ers)
A former Olympic hero once popularly boasted about winning a gold medal with “A broken freakin’ neck!”. Well, that hero would be more than proud of George Kittle’s efforts on Sunday Night Football. The breakout TE of 2018 has struggled with injuries in 2019, but he showed up ready to channel his inner Kurt Angle against the Packers in Primetime.
Kittle dominated the Green Bay defense in his return effort, catching 6 balls for 129 yards & a TD with “A broken freakin’ ankle!”. Kittle finished the day with a perfect catch rating (6 for 6), and his highest fantasy point total of the year so far (21 points) in San Francisco’s blowout victory. The superstar TE will face stiff competition against a physical Ravens defense in Week 13, but there’s no way owners can stay away from him if he’s active.
MY MAIN TAKEAWAY FROM WEEK 12:
WE MAY SEE A PREVIEW OF SUPER BOWL 54 NEXT WEEK IN BALTIMORE.
It should come as a surprise to no one that this week’s main takeaway is (once again) about either the Baltimore Ravens or San Francisco 49ers. This week’s takeaway is different though, I swear. This week, instead of salivating over each team’s rapid-fire rise to prominence and dominance, we’re going to simply address what could be the game of the year in Week 13.
When the (10-1) 49ers and (9-2) Ravens meet this Sunday it will be a true match-up of the consensus best teams in each conference. With due respect to the Patriots, Chiefs, Saints, and Packers, these teams have shown themselves to be above the rest by comparison.
The Niners and Ravens systematic destruction of both the Packers and Rams this past week showed just how wide that gap is between them and the next closest playoff team. San Francisco’s defense made Aaron Rodgers and the Packers running attack look like a varsity squad, and Baltimore’s innovative, option heavy offense left Sean McVay scratching his genius head in confusion. There is no other way to look at this game than as a likely appetizer for a Super Bowl match-up to come.
It will be a true test of strength against two teams with similar DNA. Both dominate their opponents with aggressive, innovative rushing attacks. Kyle Shanahan’s committee of Matt Breida/Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert have shredded some of the NFL’s best defenses to ribbons. While Baltimore’s option run/pass structure with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram has posed a no-win situation to opposing teams on a weekly basis. There is no right answer on an option play where the opposing team’s quarterback is a faster rusher than the RB he could be handing the ball to.
On the other side of the ball, both teams have also been dominant. San Francisco’s defense has been second in the league to only New England in overall defense through 12 weeks. With a combination of veteran leadership in their secondary (Richard Sherman), and a supercharged pass rush lead by DROY favorite Nick Bosa, the 49ers are a dominant force that smothers opposing offenses before they can even begin to get comfortable.
On the flip side, Baltimore is more of an opportunistic defense, getting steady pressure on opposing QB’s and coming up with turnovers that put the ball back in Lamar’s hands as often as possible.
These teams will face their doppelganger in many ways in Week 13, and the world will be watching as the unofficial right to be crowned the league’s best team will be on the line. With even grander aspirations on the horizon in just a few short months, these teams will be giving it everything they’ve got to prove they are the NFL’s best this Sunday.
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