The following rankings are concerned primarily with the keeper league format, placing the greatest emphasis on predicted performance over the next three years (cf. my previous introductory article on keeper and dynasty leagues).
The strong rookie crop of RB’s have forced themselves to the top, resulting in a more balanced mix of WR’s and RB’s, despite my general preference for WR’s in keeper leagues (again, cf. my previous article). It looks as though several of 2017’s rookie RB class will be strong performers for the foreseeable future.
In what follows I have included a few notes on various players from among the top 32 of my rankings. Players’ names are in bold to make it easier to find comments on players that may be of particular interest to the reader.
View full fantasy football keeper rankings.
Comments on 1-11
The dip in production is not a major concern for Ezekiel Elliott (1), who still plays behind one of the best (and relatively young) offensive lines in the N.F.L. Even with the possibility of the six-game ban looming, I’m not trading him for anyone in a keeper league.
I’ve swapped Mike Evans (2) for Odell Beckham Jr. (3) primarily because of the number of question marks surrounding the latter’s future situation (the QB, coach, and system all may be changing–although at this point in E. Manning’s career a QB change might be an upgrade). While the Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston doesn’t seem to be improving dramatically, he’s still an adequate young quarterback who looks for his number one receiver, Evans, regularly. Touchdowns are notoriously tricky to predict, but Evans’s size will make him a legitimate red zone threat for the next decade. I think Mike Evans’s 3 TDs in 2015 will prove to be curious aberration in his career.
Antonio Brown (5) is as reliable as ever (particularly in PPR leagues), and despite insinuations suggesting otherwise I don’t expect his QB Ben Roethlisberger to hang up the cleats this offseason.
David Johnson’s (6) value to his team has been clearly demonstrated in his absence; look for him to pick up where he left off later this year, even with newcomer Peterson in the mix.
Managers who endured the 2016 season with DeAndre Hopkins (8) and the train wreck that was the Brock Osweiler era in Houston must be thrilled with rookie sensation Deshaun Watson; this may be a dynamic duo for years to come.
Leonard Fournette (9), Todd Gurley (10), and Kareem Hunt (11) are all top-tier RBs who look to be set for long-term success. Their coaches seem committed to a one-man RB show, which is invaluable to fantasy managers.
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Comments on 12-21
While changes may be on the horizon for the Bengals in 2018, A.J. Green (13) is going to continue to be Mr. Consistent; unfortunately, his quarterback, Andy Dalton will lay the occasional egg on the field.
I’ve been surprised by T.Y. Hilton’s (14) production (albeit, inconsistent production) without his star quarterback, who may not return this season.
We didn’t have much time to see Dalvin Cook (15) on the pro stage, but he showed enough to warrant very high expectations next year; trade for Cook if you can.
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While I love the trajectory of Amari Cooper’s (18) team, young QB, and offensive line, the abysmal start to the season has to be a little concerning. However, remember that according to standard production by position (see previous article), Cooper hasn’t yet hit his prime years. Cooper’s counterpart Michael Crabtree (age, 30) probably won’t continue to dominate red zone looks forever. Remember, we’re trying to gauge value over the next three years (weighted most heavily). I consider Cooper a prime buy low target, and still prefer him over many WRs in the long-term. (I wrote the previous notes on Cooper prior to Week 7’s explosion. Cooper had some dreadful drops in that Thursday game, and Carr clearly trusts Crabtree more when the game is on the line. Apparently in Week 7 Cooper played a higher percentage of snaps in the slot. Hopefully his team recognizes the trend and utilizes Cooper more in this capacity.)
For being such a big personality, Dez Bryant (19) can disappear every now and then.
In both positive and negative ways Stefon Diggs (21) is emulating last season (huge production some games, nagging injuries). Although Sam Bradford may not be ready for a while, Teddy Bridgewater may be returning later this season, so Diggs should have some consistent QB play.
Comments on 22-32
If Rob Gronkowski (22) wasn’t a perpetual injury risk he’d be in the top fifteen of this list. With forever-young Brady at the helm looking for Gronkowski in moments of desperation, the injury prone TE will be the top receiving threat in NE as long as he’s healthy.
While Alex Smith spreads the ball around pretty well, Tyreek Hill’s (23) explosive playmaking ability makes his long term prospects enticing.
Despite early concerns, Jordan Howard’s (24) role seems to be established enough to keep him as a top ten keeper RB, but his value will be hurt by a team that struggles to compete. Similarly, Jay Ajayi’s (25) value is hurt by an otherwise completely impotent offense led by future broadcaster Jay Cutler.
Christian McCaffery (26) is still growing into a role with Carolina; by the end of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s climbed these rankings. Nevertheless with competition in the backfield for touches–not least from Carolina QB, Cam Newton–his value will be capped when compared to some of the other rookie class above him on this list. Similarly, although the switch in offensive coordinators in Cincinatti appears to be a boon for Joe Mixon (27), I don’t trust that he won’t lose TD’s and touches to a talented backfield.
While you’ll be fearful of injury every time he’s tackled, Keenan Allen (28) steadily produces when he plays (particularly in PPR leagues).
I do have concerns about Sammy Watkins’s (29) production for the remainder of the 2017 season, but I’m not selling; remember that he was traded just prior to the season, and has not been given adequate time to learn and be integrated into the Rams’ system. These sorts of droughts in productivity were anticipated at the time of his trade.
Allen Robinson’s (30) future production is difficult to predict. Jacksonville’s offense works hard to hide the inadequacies of future N.F.L. backup, Blake Bortles. My guess is team management will look to replace him next year. Beginning next season Robinson will be only two years removed from a statistically outstanding season (1,400 yards, 14 TDs) and he’s still only 25 years old. His value this year is at its nadir; if you’re rebuilding and can obtain him for pennies on the dollar, I’d pursue a trade.
Derrick Henry (31) has looked great when he’s been given touches this year (5.1 yards per carry). With DeMarco Murray soon on the wrong side of 30 and able to be cut by the Titans next year (saving the team $6.5 million in cap space), now is the time to get Derrick Henry.
While Sean Payton is liable to frustrate fantasy managers hoping for consistent production by a running back (historically he has employed two backs), Alvin Kamara’s (32) upside is tantalizing. Kamara is easily the biggest climber in my rankings, having earned touches through his outstanding play and versatility (and the unceremonious departure of Adrian Peterson). Similar to Derrick Henry, I anticipate 2017 being inconsistent and frustrating for fantasy managers, as Kamara plays second fiddle to the Saint’s lead back, Mark Ingram. However, the flashes Kamara has already shown this year suggest that if given the opportunity he could be a dual threat stud in 2018 and beyond.
