Fantasy Football: Making Sense of 2018’s Offensive Explosion

The main takeaway from last season is that fantasy assets tied to elite offenses are given more opportunities to be productive, regardless of talent. @PhilPattonNFL, who will soon be breaking down all 32 NFL offenses from a fantasy perspective, explains.

The NFL is in the midst of an offensive explosion the likes of which we’ve never seen. In fact, 2018 was the highest-scoring fantasy season of all time. This phenomenon has made fantasy football more exciting than ever, but the offensive revolution didn’t reach every corner of the league.

The Chiefs, Steelers, Rams and Saints carried fantasy teams to the playoffs last year, while the Cardinals, Bills, Jaguars and Jets left many owners frustrated. 

Fantasy production was also 41% more-dispersed per-team than in 2017, further driving up the value of players in elite offenses. Damien Williams perfectly exemplifies that value, going from relative obscurity to winning many people their leagues last year, while David Johnson was a victim of circumstance in the NFL’s worst offense. 

The main takeaway from the 2018 season is that fantasy assets tied to elite offenses are given more opportunities to be productive, regardless of talent.

All 32 teams ranked in terms of fantasy offense. Click on a team name to see that team’s preview.

Quick takeaways

• It’s not a coincidence that two of the smartest coaching staffs in the league, Baltimore and New England, led the league in plays last year. After all, the Patriots won Super Bowl LI by running 88 offensive plays and tiring out Atlanta’s defense. Sustaining long drives, pushing the pace when the defense is tired and managing the clock at the end of the half are all important aspects of winning games and creating positive fantasy outcomes.
• Miami and Arizona, meanwhile, ran their offenses at a snail’s pace last year. The coaches of those teams have since been fired and David Johnson declared that Arizona plans to run “90 or 95 plays a game” next year. That is an absolutely ludicrous goal, but it’s a positive sign that the new Cardinals coaching staff is looking to increase their offensive opportunities next year. 
• The Jets, on the other hand, are not so fortunate. They now employ Adam Gase, the architect of the painfully-slow Miami offense, so they have that to look forward to.
• Elsewhere in New York, the Giants finished with a middle-of-the-pack passing offense despite throwing on the fifth-highest percentage of plays. With OBJ gone and Eli Manning another year older, the writing is on the wall for the Giants offense to plunge deeper into the cellar next year. 
• On the flip side, Green Bay looks poised to improve their running game under new leadership. They were sixth in fantasy points/rush last year and new head coach Matt LaFleur has already professed his love for establishing the run. The Packers are also going to run more play-action next year, which will take pressure off Aaron Rodgers by giving him easy completions.