Our “must-have” series provides an in-depth breakdown of three players at each position that you need to draft for the upcoming season.

Welcome to the next installment of my fantasy football “must-have” players for 2023 (Also see quarterbacks and wide receivers).

Each article for every offensive position will focus on three different players and have an in-depth breakdown of why these players can be considered difference-makers for the upcoming season.

Each positional breakdown will have one player with an early average draft position, one with a middle ADP, and another going in the later rounds (ADP courtesy of FantasyPros’ consensus at the time of writing). This way, you can consider one of these players no matter your preferred draft strategy.

On that note, here are my three must-have fantasy football running backs for the 2023 season. 

3 fantasy running backs to draft in 2023

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons 

Average Draft Position: 8.0 (Round 1), RB4 

Rationale: I love Bijan Robinson this year not just for fantasy football purposes. I also wrote an article suggesting you bet on him to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Many shy away from drafting rookies because they have never seen them do it in the NFL before, but at the same time, this makes them so enticing for fantasy. In Robinson’s case, there’s not much of a discount, but I am taking Bijan as high as 4th overall only behind Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Christian McCaffrey because of his combination of upside and safety. 

1. 1st round NFL rookie RBs tend to shine

Many running backs that are drafted in the first round of the NFL draft have been tremendous fantasy producers in their rookie year. In 2021, Najee Harris finished as the RB4. In 2018, Saquon Barkley finished as the RB2. In 2017, Christian McCafrey finished as the RB11 and Leonard Fournette finished as the RB8. In 2016, Ezekiel Elliott finished as the RB2.

The only big miss was Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2019 who still finished as a respectable RB20. To put it lightly, Robinson is a MUCH better prospect than CEH. Other rookie running backs that were successful in their first year but were not first-round picks include Jonathan Taylor (RB6), Kareem Hunt (RB4), and Kamara (RB3). Robinson is an amazing talent and has overall RB1 upside. 

2. Atlanta will run, and run well

Arthur Smith loves to run the football. Probably because his scheme is incredible. Smith was the offensive coordinator for Derrick Henry from 2019-2020 where he finished as the RB3 and RB2. Last year, Atlanta ran the ball on 55% of their plays (2nd highest in NFL) and averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a team (4th highest in NFL).

Atlanta’s offensive line is ranked 7 by ProFootballFocus going into 2023 and the Falcons had 452 rushing attempts last year. If Bijan only gets 60% of the carries that puts him at 27. Robinson is also an elite pass catcher and should pull in at least 30 receptions this season. That would put him at 300 touches at least and with Atlanta’s efficiency and his talent, he could explode. His floor is high, his ceiling is higher — do what you can to get Robinson on your fantasy team this year.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens 

Average Draft Position: 51.7 (5th Round) RB20 

Rationale: It doesn’t feel like it, but J.K. Dobbins is in a contract year going into his fourth NFL season. Dobbins has had trouble staying healthy but when he’s been on the field, he’s been insanely efficient. Last year Dobbins showed flashes when he played from Weeks 14-17 (RB14). He is now two years removed from his torn ACL and is set up for a potentially full and productive season in 2023. Let me be clear, he’s a risky pick, but he continues to fall and in the 5th round, he’s worth the potential upside. 

1. Ridiculous efficiency 

Dobbins is an incredible talent at running back when he is on the field. He has been insanely efficient averaging 5.9 yards per carry OVER HIS CAREER. That level of efficiency rivals players like Jamaal Charles in his prime. His efficiency is boosted playing with Lamar Jackson because defenses have to account for either taking off with the football.

The point is, Dobbins does not need a ton of work in order to have a great year and to beat his RB18 price tag. From Weeks 14-17 where Dobbins finished as the RB14 last year, he averaged 14.25 fantasy points. That was without Jackson. In a high-scoring offense, and with a full recovery of the torn ACL, Dobbins could be in the 18-20 carries per game range which would let him smash his current ADP. 

2. Potential for increased catches 

Over the past 5 years, Baltimore has finished 3rd, 11th, 1st, 1st, and 3rd in run rate with Jackson behind center. However, Todd Monken comes in as the new offensive coordinator in Baltimore, replacing Greg Roman. In 2018 Monken was the OC for the Buccaneers, and, according to Ryan Mink at baltimoreravens.com, “deployed more pass-heavy schemes that fit the personnel of the Buccaneers. In 2018, Monken helped Tampa Bay lead the NFL in passing offense (320.3 yards per game) and finish third in total offense (415.5 yards per game), setting single-season club records in each category.”

If Dobbins gets any decent bump in the passing game, he’ll easily be a top-12 fantasy back over a full season.

Other running backs I love in this range: Jahmyr Gibbs.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders 

Average Draft Position: 93.3 (Late 8th Round), RB34 

Rationale: More often than not, I would always advise against taking running backs or wide receivers in bad offenses with bad quarterbacks. The Commanders will be led by former North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell, which is not the most appealing option to draft a late running back. However, I think in half ppr or full ppr leagues, Antonio Gibson is currently being drafted at his floor and has the upside to finish as a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3. 

1. Gibson’s track record

In 2020 and 2021, Gibson finished in half-PPR leagues as the RB12 and RB10. Last season, he finished as the RB31 despite missing the last game of the season. Each year, Gibson’s reception total has increased (36, 42, 46), and he certainly has a chance at 50 catches this upcoming season. Gibson could have a bounce-back year and is a great value in round 8. He is an ideal fantasy target for any zero/hero RB drafters in 2023. 

2. Increased receiving role 

At the end of last season, Brian Robinson took over as the Commanders early-down running back. While it would be nice for Gibson to dominate that role, he will have domination over the passing down role for the Commanders. Gibson had an 80.5 receiving PFF grade (3rd amongst running backs) and J.D. McKissic is gone, leaving Gibson ownership of that role. Last year he had a 14% target share and posted a career-high in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He could definitely build on that in 2023 and if anything were to happen to Robinson, he could be a high-end RB2 on volume alone. 

To sum things up…

Tides are changing in fantasy football and the running back is not valued as it used to be. However, Bijan Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, and Antonio Gibson are all in positions to succeed.

Late in the draft, I like grabbing handcuffs for other running backs that I DO NOT have. Taking handcuffs for your own backs raises your team’s overall floor, but caps its upside. If another league member’s running back goes down with an injury, you now have an incredibly valuable player on your bench to use or trade. Jaylen Warren is a back I am targeting as Najee Harris has struggled to be efficient, and is coming off a foot injury that lingers, and Mike Tomlin has a tendency to give one running back all the work. Warren should be the final target at running back in all of your fantasy drafts.

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