Our experts weigh in on which NFL teams are going to survive Wild Card Weekend.
Saturday
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-2.5)
4:35 p.m. ET (ESPN) | NRG Stadium (Houston)
This matchup is all about team identity and structure. I look at the Houston Texans and I see a team that isn’t sure what it wants to be on a weekly basis. They have arguably the most talented young QB/WR tandem in the league with Deshaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins, but despite that, they haven’t been able to find a consistent winning rhythm.
Houston has been hamstrung all year by a bottom five secondary and a bad habit of shrinking under the spotlight. This flaw was most glaringly obvious following their shocking win over the Patriots in Week 13. Houston had all the momentum in the world on their side, and they got destroyed by an average Broncos team (38-24) the very next week. They knew that the eyes of the country were on them, and they shrunk under pressure against a team that they should have annihilated. The presence of J.J. Watt coming back for this game feels more like a locker room booster than an actual on-field lift (Watt can’t possibly be 100%), and the lack of a real No. 2 receiving option opposite Hopkins will be a problem.
Meanwhile, the Bills are a young team brimming with potential and feel like they’re hitting their stride about one year ahead of schedule. Josh Allen has progressed impressively in his second year with off-season acquisitions Cole Beasley and John Brown, and Buffalo’s found a legitimate top 3 cornerback in Tre’Davious White. Their flaw is the same as Houstons, they have a habit of coming up short when the lights are on bright.
The thing that separates these teams (and will decide this game) is the will to win. Buffalo has shown that they have the fighting spirit to keep games close, and even their key losses (Baltimore, New England 2x) have each been one-score affairs. Houston can’t say the same, and it’s that lack of fight that will make their inconsistencies shine through more in this matchup.
Bills 20, Texans 13
— Derek McCauley
The Bills and Texans face off on Saturday in the first playoff game of the season. Both teams sport a 10-6 record and feature young, mobile quarterbacks. While the Texans have a more dynamic receiving corps, the most glaring difference between the two teams is on defense. The Bills have a very sturdy defense that ranks near the top of the league in most categories, including third in yards allowed (298 per game) and second in points allowed (16.2 per game).
On the flip side, the Texans rank in the bottom half in most categories, including 28th in yards allowed (388 per game) and 19th in points allowed (24 per game). I expect the Bills defense to be able to get off the field on third down much more frequently than the Texans and Josh Allen to make some big conversions with his legs. This will give the Bills the narrow win on the road where they have already won six of eight this season.
Bills 24, Texans 21
— Joshua Mutters
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
8:15 p.m. ET (CBS) | Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
The Tennesee Titans are going to walk into this matchup in Foxboro with almost every advantage a team could want (on paper). Statistically speaking, they have a better performing quarterback on the year (Tannehill > Brady). They have a defined identity on offense with rushing champion Derrick Henry and rookie phenom A.J. Brown. Hell, they even have the benefit of knowing the Patriots JUST lost at Foxboro to a terrible Dolphins team this past week. The one thing that Tennessee doesn’t have, is anything that can stop this Patriots defense under Bill Belichick.
New England has gotten its fair share of hate this season for their offensive struggles and easy first-half schedule, but their defense is no joke. In fact, they’re pretty terrifying. The unit ranks as the NFL’s No.1 overall defense, allowing league-lows in passing touchdowns (13), rushing touchdowns (7), and rushing yards per attempt (3.8). This defense thrives on taking opponents’ perceived strength, neutralizing it, and turning it into a weakness. They trail only the Steelers in forced turnovers (36), and they’ve shown the ability to erase the top talents of the opposition on a weekly basis.
With Stephon Gilmore (A DPOY front runner) guarding A.J. Brown, and their front line loading the box to stop Henry, I find it difficult to believe Ryan Tannehill will find a way to beat this team. I don’t expect this to be a high scoring game, it may even devolve into a defensive slog, but when the time comes to pounce on a mistake, it will be New England doing the celebrating.
Patriots 24, Titans 14
— Derek McCauley
On Saturday, that Patriots find themselves hosting a playoff game, which is definitely what they have grown accustomed to. The fact that it is on Wild Card Weekend takes them to somewhat unfamiliar territory. The last time the Pats played in the wild card round was in 2009 when they were defeated at home by the Baltimore Ravens. In that contest the Ravens ran the ball 52 times for 234 yards and four touchdowns.
Ten years later, I expect the Titans to try a similar strategy by feeding Derrick Henry early and often. Henry captured the 2019 rushing title with 1,540 yards and, most recently, ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17. Throughout most of the season the Patriots offensive struggles have been overcome by playing phenomenal defense. More recently though this has not worked, as they have lost three of their last five games including two losses at Foxborough. I predict their offense to sputter again on Saturday ultimately giving Head Coach Mike Vrabel a 2-0 record against his former coach.
Titans 27, Patriots 20
— Joshua Mutters
Sunday
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
1:05 p.m. ET (FOX) | Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
The fact that the hot narrative surrounding this game is all about the 2017 “Minnesota Miracle” should tell you one thing very clearly. This game isn’t anywhere near as interesting as its past counterpart. I think this is the most cut and dry matchup of Wild Card weekend by far.
You have a 13-3 Saints team playing within the confines of arguably the greatest home-field advantage in the sport against Kirk Cousins. New Orleans will win this game by 10 points, easy. The Saints are 6-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming on last-second plays against the 49ers and (gasp) the Atlanta Falcons. They have two of the most dominant players in the game on defense in Marshon Lattimore/Cameron Jordan, and they have arguably the best receiver in the league in Michael Thomas. New Orleans is built like a juggernaut on both sides of the ball, and they’ll be extremely difficult for anyone to beat at home, let alone a beaten up Vikings team.
Minnesota comes into this match-up with a leaky secondary, injuries to their top two running backs (including their superstar, Dalvin Cook) and a quarterback in Kirk Cousins who is best known for coming up short in big games. The Vikings have a punchers chance in this game because of their receiving weapons (Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen), and their pass rush (Danielle Hunter/Anthony Barr), but they’ll have to play a perfect game to escape the Big Easy with a W. I don’t see a reality where Cousins plays a great game, let alone a perfect one. This should be the quickest fight of the weekend.
Saints 42, Vikings 24
— Derek McCauley
The Vikings will be taking on the Saints in a rematch of the “Minneapolis Miracle” game from two seasons ago. While many of the same pieces still remain, these are different teams and the game will be in a different city. The Vikings will be hitting the road this time around where their record is 4-4 this season, as opposed to 6-2 at home.
The Saints enjoy a very big home-field advantage and their offense is now thriving. Michael Thomas has been unstoppable all season, catching 35 passes for 398 yards and three touchdowns in weeks 14-16 alone. Jared Cook has also found his groove, catching five touchdowns in the last four weeks. The Saints offense will prove too much for the Vikings and they will not be able to keep pace.
Saints 31, Vikings 20
— Joshua Mutters
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
4:40 p.m. ET (NBC) | Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
The fate of this matchup falls squarely on the shoulders of the two quarterbacks involved. Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz are two of the league’s brightest stars at the position. Both have overcome injuries and rallied their teams to reach the playoffs, but only one can push past Wild Card Weekend.
Both (technically) bring Super Bowl-winning experience to the table, but Wilson obviously gets the edge due to repeat experience in big games and this being Wentz’s first true playoff start. When these teams matched up earlier in the season it was a sloppy affair that saw nearly double-digit turnovers. Both teams struggled with fumbles, and Wentz threw two interceptions. Despite all of that, Seattle won that game by only 8 points (17-9).
Since that matchup, these two teams have gone in opposite directions. Philadelphia became one of the hottest teams in the league over the final month, winning four straight divisional contests. They did all of this while working with practice squad personnel and rookies at most major offensive positions.
As this was happening, Seattle got blown out on Sunday Night Football against the Rams and lost on a boneheaded delay of game penalty in a potential division-clinching game against San Francisco in Week 17. The experience edge for Seattle is limited to Wilson vs Wentz. When it comes to coaching experience it becomes close to even between what Pete Carroll and Doug Pederson bring to their respective teams. Both coaches are known locker room guys that have the full support of their teams, but both are also known for questionable/ballsy decision making. I fully expect this game to be close up until the end, and the deciding factor will likely be a 50/50 play call by either coach in a key moment.
Give me Philadelphia for the upset in this one. There’s no questioning Russell Wilson’s ability to win a game single-handedly, but Philly has the feel of a team that’s on a roll at the right time. In the face of a comically high number of injuries, they’ve bonded and become a better team around their quarterback. Wentz has responded to adversity like a true franchise star, playing nearly flawless football down the final stretch.
Despite this being his first playoff start, Wentz has shown nothing but pure clutch ability in the weeks leading to this point. Add on the fact that Doug Pederson is undefeated at home in the playoffs during his tenure in Philadelphia, and I think he and Wentz are going to surprise a lot of people on Sunday night.
Eagles 27, Seahawks 24
— Derek McCauley
The Seahawks and Eagles both come into the playoffs dealing with a litany of injuries to skill players. Injuries at running back have made the Seahawks resort to bringing back Marshawn Lynch. Zach Ertz is dealing with a cracked rib and lacerated kidney. Injuries at receiver have the Eagles leaning on a receiving duo that consists of a rookie with 10 career catches and a former college quarterback that has played six NFL games at receiver. The two teams actually met in November (a Seahawks 17-9 victory) but due to injuries, the rosters will look much different this time around.
The outcome of this game will likely come down to the ability of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to get open against a shaky Eagles secondary. I expect both Seahawks receivers to get open and Russell Wilson to find them for big plays. The Eagles won’t be able to play from behind with a lack of playmakers at the wide receiver position.
Seahawks 24, Eagles 17
— Joshua Mutters
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