Patrick Mahomes and Regression: What Losing Tyreek Hill Might Mean

If you’re targeting Patrick Mahomes in fantasy this year and he’s without Tyreek Hill, be sure to temper expectations, but just slightly, writes @RobBob17. 

Patrick Mahomes set the sports world on fire last season when he burst onto the scene as a first-year starter in Kansas City’s high-octane offense. No look passes? Left-handed passes on third down during the final minutes of a game-winning drive? Second and 30 a minute later on that same drive? Meh, no big deal for the Red Raider rocket-armed, frogger-voiced sensation.

Simply put, Mahomes was a league winner last year. He outscored QB2, Matt Ryan, by 67.62 points in standard ½ PPR — the discrepancy was even larger if you played in leagues where TDs were six points. That gap from positional leader to runner-up was head and shoulders above everyone else, with fellow Chiefs teammate Travis Kelce’s 20.8-point advantage over George Kittle being the next largest.

But all good things must come to an end, right? There’s just nooooooo way that Mahomes comes close to replicating his MVP numbers from 2018, right?

We’ve been hearing nothing but regression with a capital R when it comes to all things Mahomes-related over the offseason, and that was amplified immediately following the Tyreek Hill investigation. While folks are still up in the air regarding Hill’s playing status in 2019, for this piece, let’s plan on Hill not playing a single down for the Chiefs this season.

Mahomes will undoubtedly feel the effects of being without his leading receiver from last season. But instead of simply relying on that abstract R-word, I took a dive into the numbers of when elite quarterbacks lost their leading receivers from the previous year. Below is an 11-season sample size of comparing quarterbacks’ numbers the previous year and the following year without their top receiver.

What Happens When Elite Quarterbacks Lose Their Leading Receiver?

Tom Brady – 2017 (lost Julian Edelman) **WON MVP**

+0.9% attempts, -1.1 comp%, -3.4% yds, -13.5% TDs, -266.7% INTs

• 2016: (16 game pace): 576 attempts, 67.4 comp%, 4,739 yds, 37 TDs, 3 INTs
• 2017 (MVP Season) (NO EDELMAN): 581 attempts (led NFL), 66.3 comp%, 4,577 yds (led NFL), 32 TDs, 8 INTs

Drew Brees – 2017 (lost Brandin Cooks)

-20.4% attempts, +2 comp%, -16.8% yds, -37.8% TDs, +187.5% INTs

• 2016: 673 attempts (led NFL), 70 comp%, 5,208 yds, 37 TDs, 15 INTs
• 2017 (NO COOKS): 536 attempts, 72 comp% (led NFL), 4,334 yds, 23 TDs, 8 INTs

Matthew Stafford – 2016 (lost Calvin Johnson)

+0.3% attempts, -1.9 comp%, +1.5% yds, -25% TDs, +130% INTs

• 2015: 592 attempts, 67.2 comp%, 4,262 yds, 32 TDs, 13 INTs
• 2016 (NO MEGATRON): 594 attempts, 65.3%, 4,327 yds, 24 TDs, 10 INTs

Aaron Rodgers – 2015 (lost Jordy Nelson)

+10% attempts, -4.9 comp%, -12.8% yds, -18.4% TDs, -160% INTs

• 2014 (MVP): 520 attempts, 65.6 comp%, 4,381 yds, 38 TDs, 5 INTs,
• 2015 (NO JORDY): 572 attempts, 60.7 comp%, 3,821 yds, 31 TDs, 8 INTs

Russell Wilson – 2014 (lost Golden Tate)

+11.1% attempts, = comp%, +3.5% yds, -23.1% TDs, +128.6% INTs

• 2013: 407 attempts, 63.1 comp%, 3,357 yds, 26 TDs, 9 INTs
• 2014 (NO TATE): 452 attempts, 63.1%, 3,475 yds, 20 TDs, 7 INTs

Tom Brady – 2013 (lost Wes Welker)

-1.4% attempts, -2.5 comp%, -10% yds, -26.5% TDs, – 137.5% INTS

• 2012: 637 attempts, 63 comp%, 4,827 yds, 34 TDs, 8 INTs
• 2013 (NO WELKER): 628 attempts, 60.5 comp%, 4,343 yds, 25 TDs, 11 INTs

Ben Roethlisberger – 2010 (lost Santonio Holmes)

-3.9% attempts, -4.9 comp%, -7.6% yds, -17.9% TDs, +185.7% INTs

• 2009 (16 game pace): 540 attempts, 66.6 comp%, 4,617 yds, 28 TDs, 13 INTs
• 2010 (NO HOLMES) (16 game pace): 519 attempts, 61.7 comp%, 4,267 yds, 23 TDs, 7 INTs

Tony Romo – 2009 (lost Terrell Owens)

-0.3% attempts, +1.8 comp%, +5.6% yds, -18.3% TDs, +188.9% INTs

• 2008 (16 game pace): 554 attempts, 61.3 comp%, 4,244 yds, 32 TDs, 17 INTs
• 2009 (NO OWENS): 550 attempts, 63.1 comp%, 4,483 yds, 26 TDs, 9 INTs

Daunte Culpepper – 2005 (lost Randy Moss) **Led NFL in completions and yards in 2004**

-9.9% attempts, -4.8 comp%, -24.2% yds, -64.1% TDs, -245.5% INTs

• 2004: 548 attempts, 69.2 comp%, 4,717 yds, 39 TDs, 11 INTs
• 2005 (NO MOSS) (16 game pace): 494 attempts, 64.4 comp% 3,575 yds, 14 TDs, 27 INTs

Donovan McNabb – 1st half of 2005 & all of 2006 (lost Terrell Owens)

-23.1% attempts, -2 comp%, -8.9% yds, -14.7% TDs, +160% INTs

• 2005 (16 game pace): 658 attempts, 59 comp%, 4,649 yds, 34 TDs, 16 INTs
• 2006 (NO OWENS) (16 game pace): 506 attempts, 57 comp%, 4,235 yds, 29 TDs, 10 INTs

Brett Favre – 2002 (lost Bill Schroder and Antonio Freeman)

+8% attempts, +0.3 comp %, -6.7% yds, -15.6% TDs, – 106.7% INTs

• 2001: 510 attempts, 61.6 comp%, 3,921 yds, 32 TDs, 15 INTs
• 2002 (NO FREEMAN AND SCHRODER): 551 attempts, 61.9 comp%, 3,658 yds, 27 TDs, 16 INTs

11 SEASON SAMPLE SIZE AVERAGE

-2.6% attempts, -1.6 comp%, -7.3% yds, -25% TDs, +105.8% INTs

2019 Mahomes Projection: 565 attempts, 64.4 comp%, 4,725 yards, 38 TDs, 11 INTs

It shouldn’t come as a shock to see that every single quarterback in this sample saw their TD numbers decline. Granted, some considerably more than others. (I see you still trying to get your roll on without Randy, Daunte. For everyone’s sake, just stop.)

Using this sample, quarterbacks on average see their TDs go down by 25% after losing their leading receiver. For the sake of data, I’ll humor the inconceivable notion that Mahomes doesn’t throw for 56 TDs this season. Even if the data holds true, if you cut Mahomes’ TDs down by 25%, that means he’s still good for 38 TDs! There have only been ten individual seasons since 2012 where a quarterback has thrown for 38 or more TDs. A 38-TD season out of Mahomes would still likely see him finish, at worst, as QB2 in 2019.

Personally, I think Mahomes can get 38 TDs in his sleep, regardless of Hill’s status. Folks like to point out that “Oh, these NFL defenses will figure him out!” Sure, there’s some merit to that. But why can’t Mahomes, who, might I remind you, has been a starting quarterback for all of one season, figure out a few things of his own? Typically, don’t players take significant jumps from Year 1 to Year 2? Or does that only apply to players who aren’t unicorns?

For the record, I’m not expecting 50 TDs again out of Mahomes in 2019. But to sit here and say he won’t be QB1 just because, you guessed it, regression (insert Kanye-shrug-meme), is lazy and predictable. Last I checked, there has never been another quarterback like him in the history of the NFL.

And call me crazy, I don’t think Hill is solely responsible for Mahomes’ success as a first-year starter. Mahomes will still be quarterbacking an Andy Reid offense with a plethora of playmakers at his disposal. If you’re targeting Mahomes this year and he’s without Cheetah, be sure to temper expectations just slightly. But don’t be ridiculous and expect him to finish anything less than QB1.