Need a quick catchup on what to expect in a few of Week 1’s key matchups? Here’s how I see Sunday playing out for some teams, and what the fantasy impact will be.
49ers at Bears
This is gonna be ugly. I’d be shocked if the Bears got much going against this ferocious defense. Injuries, free agency, and retirement to the 49ers’ interior line are going to limit their ability to run the ball, although I don’t think the Bears’ defense is going to be good either. Do the Bears have a single team strength?
If Shanahan can run the ball effectively with this line, he truly is a run-game of wizard – mobile QB Trey Lance will help.
Deebo Samuel should be fine. All you have to do is throw him one-yard hitch, and he can beast-mode his way to production.
Lance is probably a good option since he’ll produce off-broken plays…again, I don’t think the Bears’ defense is going to be good.
Darnel Mooney should have a decent game assuming Justin Fields continues to pepper him with targets like last year, and this is likely when they are trailing late.
I love Fields’s talent but with this offensive line and the talent around him, he doesn’t have much of a chance.
I do not like David Montgomery here at all against this 49ers defense.
Steelers at Bengals
I like all of the Bengals, even against what I think will be a greatly improved Steelers defense. A greatly improved Bengals offensive line will make Joe Burrow and all of his weapons good-to-great plays, even Tyler Boyd and Hunter Hurst.
I think the Steelers’ offense is going to be greatly improved with offensive line additions and the growth of the youngsters along with a quarterback who can move and throw downfield occasionally. I think the Steelers beat their implied total of 19 by a touchdown or thereabouts even though the Bengals’ defense will be solid.
Najee Harris is a must-start, but I think Diontae Johnson will take a step back this year without Big Ben’s 1.8-second delivery time and more weapons (George Pickens is gonna be a problem).
I don’t like Chase Claypool in general, which is hard to believe considering he has the measurables of Calvin Johnson. A lack of self-awareness might be part of the problem considering he proclaimed himself to be a “top 3” wide receiver in the NFL a couple of months ago.
Saints at Falcons
I’m pretty sure the Falcons are going to have difficulty scoring (implied total is 19) against a quality Saints defense. I would not be excited to start any Falcons players.
I’m not excited about anyone for the Saints either. Bad offensive line play and Jameis Winston does not equal fantasy greatness. Somebody’s going to score a few touchdowns, your best bet is that Alvin Kamara will put up a decent day.
Eagles at Lions
The Eagles should be able to do whatever they want against this defense.
Jalen Hurts should go off with his running and improved weaponry.
I really like the Eagles’ running game but I really don’t like Eagles running backs with no idea how Nick Sirianni might employ them week to week, regardless of what happened the previous week. If Kenny Gainwell gets 20 carries and 6 catches in Week 1, Miles Sanders could get that in Week 2. Mix in some Boston Scott and Trey Sermon and you have a full-on s*#t show.
I love the talent of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, these dudes are good. However, I don’t like this passing game to be consistently good with Hurts’s accuracy issues. I’m sure they each have 8-9 good games — heck, you can throw a 1-yard hitch to Brown that might go the distance at any moment. I don’t like these guys this week because the Eagles should be able to easily run the ball on the Lions.
Sidenote – Put some money on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl — an extremely talented team, no weaknesses (other than the QB not being able to throw accurately, is that a problem?) — very underrated by the oddsmakers.
Even with an excellent offensive line, Detroit will struggle against this vastly improved defense with Jared Goff at the helm. I guess late garbage time passing to D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, and D.J. Chark (a sneaky late-round value) will be a thing. Good luck figuring out which of these guys to rely on.
Patriots at Dolphins
Although I like the Dolphins’ offense this year, I do not like them this week against an always-tough Patriots pass defense (sorry Tua, Tyreek, and Jaylen). This strikes me as a low-scoring game (20 to 17ish).
A solid Dolphins defense and Joe Judge and/or Matt Patricia calling plays do not excite me about the Patriots’ chances here.
I do like the Dolphins run game here, but whether that means Chase Edmonds or Raheem Mostert I have no idea — probably go with pass-catcher Edmonds if given the choice.
Damien Harris and Rhomondre Stevenson strike me as close to a 50/50 split as possible, which means whoever scores has a good week. Again, good luck figuring out the best play here. The Patriots have a good offensive line so they can probably run it effectively some.
I think the Patriots have 5-6 receivers who could do a little damage. Good luck with that (fantasy football is hard).
Ravens at Jets
Yards and points are going to be hard to come by for the Jets here against the Ravens’ stout defense, even with little pass rush from the Ravens.
I actually like the Jets’ skill guys more with Joe Flacco than Zach Wilson. So far, Wilson has not looked anything like a good decision-maker, on the field or off. Elijah Moore is probably the most likely receiver to do well here based on his talent level and production in 2021 when healthy.
Trailing in garbage time here is likely so Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson could have decent games. The Jets have an implied total of 19 so it’s not a good matchup.
I would probably favor Michael Carter over Breece Hall in the backfield because I’m assuming he’ll be the 3rd down back and in the game when trailing late.
For the Ravens, start everyone.
Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, maybe even Isaiah Likely, let it rip. Playing the Jets is fun for everyone.
Jaguars at Commanders
Clash of the Titans this isn’t.
Washington is good against the run but not against the pass. Jacksonville is good against neither.
That should lead to a high-scoring game, but we are dealing with the Washington and Jacksonville offenses.
Rams vs Bills observations
Cam Akers: 3 carries, 0.00 yards. Ouch. If you drafted Cam in the possibly 3rd-5th round you are probably regretting that one. It’s early, however. On the opposite side of the spectrum is Cooper Kupp. He’s is uncoverable…ridiculous.
Early on, I think the Rams realized they were seriously gonna miss Andrew Whitworth, and Austin Corbett. Vonn Miller abused Joseph Noteboom and I think the Rams offense, like most offenses, is going to have trouble scoring consistently against good defenses. You want to be in on those elite offenses that can move the ball consistently even against good defenses.
Not a ton of volume for Gabe Davis but looks to be the second option in one of those elite offenses — you could do much worse. Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen, as expected, show they’re going to be huge performers this year.
