Week 10 Busts — The Fantasy Files

Week 10 Busts: David Johnson is best-avoided even if he starts, and Damien Williams’ Week 9 performance could easily be a mirage.

IN THE WEEKLY FANTASY UNIT, THERE ARE CRIMES COMMITTED THAT WOULD SHOCK AND APPALL YOU: NEGATIVE POINTS, UNDERWHELMING SUPERSTARS AND OUTRIGHT BUSTS. THESE ARE THE FINDINGS OF ONE MAN ON A MISSION TO EXPOSE THE NFL’S BIGGEST PERPETRATORS BEFORE THEY STRIKE AGAIN. THESE ARE … THE FANTASY FILES

Welcome everyone to Week 10 of the 2019 NFL Season! Our time away from the office left us feeling rested but also accumulated a bit of rust apparently. Week 9 was an up and down battle for our lineup predictions that saw a few suspects slip the “bust” label due to technicalities.

Nonetheless, we have plenty to learn from what we saw, so let’s take a look at where we hit and where we have room to improve:

WHERE WE HIT:

• TOM BRADY (14 fantasy points)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the few consistent thorns in the sides of Brady and Belichick over the years, and they more than lived up to that moniker on Sunday. Brady benefitted greatly from multiple short fields courtesy of Ravens turnovers in this one but ultimately was not able to drive down the field and score with any kind of regularity through the air. New England suffered their first loss and Brady’s shortcomings were showcased plainly for the first time this season. The GOAT has thrown for an average of one TD per game over the past month and averaged 16 fantasy points per contest over that span.
    
• MARQUISE BROWN (6 fantasy points)
  • Despite coming out on the winning side of the Baltimore/New England game, Marquise Brown didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard. The Ravens unique offense confused the Patriots all night long, and Brown showcased his trademark speed and versatility in the passing game, but his final stat line of (3 rec/48 yards) left a lot to be desired. Look for him to bounce back in a big way against a porous Bengals secondary now that he’s proven to be healthy.
    
• CHARGERS D/ST (7 fantasy points)
  • The Chargers defense dramatically outperformed expectations in a surprising victory over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, but for fantasy purposes, they remained a middling option at best. This surprise victory could be just the thing this unit needs to start heating up, but we’re still steering clear of them until they prove it on a more consistent basis.

WHERE WE MISSED:

• DAVID MONTGOMERY (21 fantasy points)
  • David Montgomery avoided the bust label by the thinnest of margins in Week nine against Philadelphia. The highly touted rookie rusher was gifted two 1 yard touchdowns by penalties and well-timed shoestring tackles. Taking the TD’s off of his line for the day, Montgomery finished with a combined 76 yards on 17 touches. Neither Bears running back was able to find room against Philly’s defense front, and this result for Montgomery can easily be written off as a bit of good fortune. His touch lead over Tarik Cohen (14 carries/2 carries) is definitely a good sign of Chicago’s intent to keep feeding him, but expectations should be kept in check.
    
• ZACH ERTZ (20 fantasy points)
  • After living life as a ghost for almost the entire month of October Zach Ertz reappeared in a major way for the Eagles on Sunday. In a tough match-up against the Bears defense, Ertz’s rapport with Carson Wentz shined as the tandem hooked up for a total line of (9 Rec/103 Yds/TD). The Touchdown was Ertz’s second of the year so far, and this also marked the All Pro’s first 100+ yard receiving game of 2019. Dallas Goedert will still be a threat to Ertz’s workload moving forward, but it seems that the superstar TE is back in the good graces of the Eagles offense.
    
• ADRIAN PETERSON (13 fantasy points)
  • There was little to no reason to believe Adrian Peterson was going to do anything particularly special against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. In reality, he didn’t, but he did produce a more than acceptable point total for fantasy purposes. Because of this we openly admit to being wrong about our primary suspect from last week. Peterson clearly still has something left in the tank at 33 years old, and he’s running as hard as ever for a bad Washington team that needs to lean on their backfield. AP has eclipsed 100 total yards in three of his last four games and can be reasonably rostered as a match-up based FLEX running back moving forward. Savvy owners can stash him on their bench during Washington’s Week 10 bye and roll him out from weeks 11-14 against four of the league’s bottom 10 run defenses (NYJ/DET/CAR/GB).

Now, with that taken care of, let’s see who made the list this week:

Week 10 Fantasy Busts

QUARTERBACK: MATTHEW STAFFORD (Detroit Lions)

Few quarterbacks in the league have been as hot as Matthew Stafford over the past month.

The veteran signal-caller has posted a stellar TD/INT ratio of 10/3 over his past three match-ups and has been a hard-luck loser for his efforts, with Detroit losing two of those three contests. This hot streak has been Stafford’s best of the season by far, and it’s no coincidence that he’s faced three sub-par defenses over that stretch (Minnesota/NY Giants/Oakland Raiders).

Stafford lands himself on our rundown this week partially because of a tough match-up with the Bears defense, but also because of his trends against top tier defenses on the road. Stafford averaged just 14 fantasy points in his last two road starts against top-10 defenses (Philadelphia/Green Bay), and threw for just one TD combined in those two games. You can feel free to stash him on your bench this week, but we don’t like him at all against a desperate Bears team at home.

RUNNING BACK: DAVID JOHNSON (Arizona Cardinals)

The ongoing cycle of drama surrounding the availability of David Johnson has been an annoying one for fantasy owners (to say the very least). From the Arizona Cardinals Twitter account mocking owners for starting Johnson in a scoreless Week 8 game to the electric arrival of Kenyan Drake in Week 9, Johnson is one of fantasy’s most confusing superstars heading into Week 10.

Kliff Kingsbury has openly stated that he intends to start Johnson in Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Bucs, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that this one could still end up being a game-time decision. With Drake performing as well as he did last week, it’s tough to believe Arizona would want to gamble with the most important weapon in their offense. If Johnson is active he’ll likely have a reduced role and play into a committee with Drake.

We advise owners to monitor this situation closely, but we lean towards sitting him against a tough Buccaneers run defense. In the event that he does sit we also advise against trusting Drake as anything more than a FLEX option.

WIDE RECEIVER: JARVIS LANDRY (Cleveland Browns)

Anyone who has read our write-ups over the past two seasons knows that Jarvis Landry is a frequent guest at the precinct.

The former Dolphins stand-out turned Browns slot-man has consistently been one of the more overrated fantasy assets in the game over the course of his career, and that trend has continued into 2019. For all of the fanfare and celebrating the Browns did in the offseason they sure don’t look to champions of any kind heading into Week 10 with a record of 2-6. Landry has maintained his value in PPR leagues solely based on a high target rate (averaging 8 targets per game), but he’s only eclipsed 100 receiving yards once, and he’s failed to reach the end zone in all but one game this year.

Given Cleveland’s lack of depth on their offensive line and the clear decline of Baker Mayfield under Freddie Kitchens it’s easy for us to fade Landry against the Buffalo Bills Top 5 pass defense in Week 10.

TIGHT END: JASON WITTEN (Dallas Cowboys)

If you placed Jason Witten’s fantasy floor and ceiling against each other they would look virtually identical, and not in a good way. When the future Hall of Famer turned broadcaster announced his return to the Dallas Cowboys during the 2018/2019 off-season it was met with an odd mixture of laughter and respect.

The respect came for Witten’s obvious contributions to not only the Cowboys but the league as a whole. The laughter came for the idea that the old man could still hang in the league. The result of his return has been a bit of both so far. Witten has returned to playing the role of safety valve for Dak Prescott and has averaged a respectable 4 targets per game opposite Blake Jarwin.

Witten finds himself on our rundown this week because of his complete lack of a ceiling for fantasy purposes. He is the definition of a waiver wire, touchdown-dependent option at the position. We expect he’ll have a tough time finding the endzone against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10.

DEFENSE: TENNESSEE D/ST

There are certain truths in life that are unwritten but understood all the same. Common sense things that shouldn’t need to be said aloud, but some people just don’t get the hint. One of those common truths is that you don’t stand in front of a moving train as it’s coming down the tracks.

The Tennessee Titans find themselves in the unenviable position of standing on the tracks for the return of Patrick Mahomes in Week 10. Mahomes will take over an offense that has averaged 24 points per contest in his absence with Matt Moore under center.

For context, Moore had been sitting on his couch in the weeks prior to Mahomes’ injury, and he still performed as a worthy fantasy starter. With the defending MVP back under center with Tyreek Hill and Andy Reid calling the plays, this team should jump right back into the race for Super Bowl 54 contention starting this week. Step off the tracks, let the Titans learn this lesson on their own.

PRIMARY SUSPECT: DAMIEN WILLIAMS (Kansas City Chiefs)

Now, this is an interesting wrinkle. We here at the W.F.U. firmly believe that the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs will defeat the Titans in Week 10, but we believe that they will accomplish it through the air, not on the ground.

Damien Williams burst out of the Chiefs backfield committee last week to explode for a season-high 19 fantasy points and a line of (12 Car/125 Yds/TD). This performance gave hope to those who drafted Williams as a second-round worthy starter, but we want to warn those owners that this could easily be a mirage. The impressive showing in Week 9 was only the second double-digit fantasy finish of the year for Williams, and it accounted for only his 3^rd rushing score in 2019.

He has faced a multitude of issues this season including injuries, backfield committee’s and a lack of touches, but ultimately the biggest thing working against Williams is the philosophy of the Chiefs offense. Kansas City wins the majority of its games through the air and with the big-armed heroics of their quarterback. The team’s backfield is often left to pick up the scraps of goal-line tackles and trick plays.

While we acknowledge that Williams showed renewed burst and stole considerable work from LeSean McCoy/Darrell Williams in Week 9 we find it hard to consider him anything above a FLEX/Low-end RB2 against the Titans stingy run defense in Week 10.