Week 11 Busts — The Fantasy Files

Week 11 Busts: There’s very real reason to worry about Carson Wentz this week and you should steer clear of Kyle Allen as well.

IN THE WEEKLY FANTASY UNIT, THERE ARE CRIMES COMMITTED THAT WOULD SHOCK AND APPALL YOU: NEGATIVE POINTS, UNDERWHELMING SUPERSTARS AND OUTRIGHT BUSTS. THESE ARE THE FINDINGS OF ONE MAN ON A MISSION TO EXPOSE THE NFL’S BIGGEST PERPETRATORS BEFORE THEY STRIKE AGAIN. THESE ARE … THE FANTASY FILES

Welcome everyone to Week 11 of the 2019 NFL Season! This past week’s slate of games was a bit of a mixed bag. With six teams on bye and the line between contenders and pretenders becoming more clear, the pressure was was for teams to establish themselves. Week 10 as a whole responded to this pressure by producing one of the more exciting 1 pm stretches of action we’ve seen all year. We saw massive upsets in New Orleans and Tennessee and a pair of comeback performances in Cleveland and Oakland. Let’s take a look at how our bust candidates from last week factored into these games:

WHERE WE HIT:

• MATTHEW STAFFORD (0 Points)
  • Stafford’s unfortunate injury designation was a shock to both fantasy/Lions fans alike. Detroit’s franchise QB was sidelined early on Sunday morning due to multiple fractures in his back. This absence was his first since the 2010 season, breaking a 136 game start streak. Stafford is included in our “Hit” section only because of his fantasy finish for the week. Savvy owners learned about his designation well in advance and avoided this situation entirely.
    
• DAVID JOHNSON (0 Points)
  • David Johnson looked nothing like the superstar fantasy fans have come to expect him to be on Sunday afternoon. Against a stingy Tampa Bay run defense, Johnson looked like he was running with sandbags around his ankles all day long. He’s clearly still struggling with his ankle injury from almost a month ago, and Arizona’s offensive line was simply unable to run block to give him any kind of help. Things won’t get any easier for any of the Cardinals running backs in Week 11 against the 49ers. It’s anyone’s guess when Johnson will be back to 100%, but from the look of things this week it won’t be anytime soon.
    
• JASON WITTEN (2 Points)
  • Witten’s status as a shaky waiver wire Tight End was reaffirmed on Sunday night as he struggled to produce in Dallas’ 28-24 loss to the Vikings. Despite seeing an above-average target share (5 targets), Witten was only able to catch 2 balls for 17 yards. With Blake Jarwin steadily eating into his workload on a weekly basis, Witten will continue to be a low ceiling TE streaming option. An above-average match-up against the struggling Lions will make that option a bit more appealing in Week 11.

WHERE WE MISSED:

• JARVIS LANDRY (20 points)
  • When the Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr this past off-season it was widely believed that they had finally gotten a franchise wide receiver. In reality, Cleveland already had a reliable option in their receiving core in Jarvis Landry. Landry hadn’t made a ton of noise so far this season, but he more than made up for that with his best performance of the year in Week 10. His final line of (9 Rec/97 Yds/TD) marked his 2^nd straight game with a TD and his second-highest yardage total of the year. He’s getting hot at the perfect time, with juicy match-ups on deck against (PIT, MIA, PIT, CIN). Landry can be viewed as a WR2/Strong FLEX option for the next month-plus.
    
• TENNESSEE D/ST (11 points)
  • The Titans as a whole could easily be named the team of the week for Week 10. Their overall effort against the Chiefs’ super-powered offense was beyond impressive. Their defense played stout, effective football for four quarters, and ultimately came up with the key field goal block that sealed Tennessee’s upset victory as time expired. They also added two sacks, a fumble recovery and a defensive TD to their line for good measure. You can’t ask for much more than what you got from this unit on Sunday afternoon. Pure guts.
    
• DAMIEN WILLIAMS (12 points)
  • It wasn’t the prettiest performance, and it certainly wasn’t the offensive explosion we saw in Week 9, but Damien Williams ultimately performed just well enough to avoid the bust label in Week 10. The unexpected absence of LeSean McCoy (healthy scratch) gave Williams a larger than expected workload, as he out-touched Darrell Williams (24 /3). He converted those opportunities into a combined 100+ yards but also surrendered a key fumble that gave the Titans an important lead. While his numbers were good enough to avoid the fantasy bust label this week, we don’t expect Williams to continue as Kansas City’s work-horse back moving forward. His committee status limits his upside even with the return of Patrick Mahomes.

Now, with that taken care of, let’s see who made the list this week:

Week 11 Fantasy Busts

QUARTERBACK: CARSON WENTZ (Philadelphia Eagles)

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has made a habit of making the best out of nothing in 2019. With a receiving core seemingly intent on dropping passes at the worst possible moments, Wentz has had to rely on his run game and Tight Ends to move the ball down the field. The Eagles continued struggles to move the ball down the field consistently will be a major roadblock for Wentz’s fantasy value against the Patriots top-ranked secondary in Week 11. Add in the fact that Alshon Jeffery and Jordan Howard may not be available, and you have a very real reason to worry about his production in this matchup.

RUNNING BACK: SONY MICHEL (New England Patriots)

Insert joke about trusting New England RBs here.

It’s well known to any/all fantasy football players that you shouldn’t rely on Patriots running backs with your fantasy season on the line. For some owners out there, they need to win every week to have a chance of making the playoffs. Regardless of the scenario, we believe Michel will find it difficult to produce against the Philadelphia Eagles Top 5 run defense. The combination of New England’s usual committee approach in the backfield and Philly’s proficiency against the run make him an easy fade in Week 11.

WIDE RECEIVER: ZACH PASCAL (Indianapolis Colts)

Zach Pascal deserves a fair amount of credit for being as good as he’s been over the past few weeks. With the loss of franchise wide-out T.Y. Hilton to injury it was expected that the Colts offense would take a major step back as a whole. Pascal has picked up the slack and emerged as a favorite “diamond in the rough” player for fantasy owners and Colts QB Jacoby Brissett.

This week’s divisional match-up with the Jacksonville Jaguars could prove to be trouble for their connection. With Brissett battling a knee injury we believe Indy will try to lean on their running game and pass sparingly against the Jags talented secondary. As the teams de facto top receiving option, Pascal will likely see a healthy dose of A.J. Bouye on Sunday. We recommend him as a FLEX at best, but he should really stay on your bench this week if you can swing it.

TIGHT END: O.J. HOWARD (Tampa Bay Bucs)

OJ HOWARD LIVES! The presumptive Top 5 Tight End coming into the season had been one of the most disappointing players in fantasy for over two months before scoring his first TD in Week 10. That touchdown has some owners jumping for joy, and others cautiously eyeing him, waiting for him to turn back into a pumpkin.

While we’re optimistic that Bruce Arians will attempt to work Howard into the offense more moving forward, we tend to side with those that are more hesitant to trust Howard’s production. Week 11’s match-up with the Saints doesn’t represent a healthy opportunity for him to build off of his recent success. We recommend sitting him for one more week to see how he performs (if you have the depth to do so). If you must start him we ask that you stay skeptical and just hope for a touchdown.

DEFENSE: HOUSTON D/ST

The Texans defense is this week’s bust D/ST because they have all of the characteristics of a team walking into an ambush. The last time we saw the Texans play was their Week 9 dismantling of Minshew-Mania in London. They hit their bye week with a victory, got comfortable, and now they’ll be returning in Week 11 to face the NFL’s most innovative offense in the Baltimore Ravens. Houston has only faced an offense similar to Baltimore once this year (Kansas City), and they put up a measily 5 points in that match-up. We strongly recommend leaving this group on the waiver wire against Lamar Jackson in Week 11.

PRIMARY SUSPECT: KYLE ALLEN (Carolina Panthers)

The Carolina Panthers have had their fair share of issues in 2019, but they’re most glaring one was remedied by the competent play of Kyle Allen under center.

With franchise QB Cam Newton sidelined multiple times (and ultimately placed on IR) due to a nagging foot injury, the Panthers could have easily fallen off a cliff. Instead, they’ve battled their way to a 5-4 record and second place in the NFC South.

Allen’s play has given the fanbase hope that he could possibly be a great stop-gap option for them at least, and a future QB at best. Those hopes will need to be held in check in Week 11 against a resurgent Atlanta Falcons team that will be eager to play spoiler for the Panthers season. Just one week removed from abusing Drew Brees and shocking the league by blowing out the Saints, the Falcons will now turn their focus to Carolina’s young QB.

This matchup could be a surprisingly low scoring slug-fest considering the talent involved, and we don’t like Allen’s odds of producing where Brees could not. Steer clear of the Panthers QB in Week 11.