This article first appeared on RotoBaller.com
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Welcome to our Week 11 matchups analysis and starts/sits column for fantasy football. We’ll be covering every matchup from every Sunday game to help you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups.
This is crunch time for most leagues so making the right start/sit decision is crucial. Lots of teams in must win mode that can’t afford to leave points on the bench. Let’s help you make the right choices and get the guys with the best matchups in your lineups.
I’ll be on Reddit each Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning to answer all your start/sit questions as well. You can also reach me directly on Twitter @ChrisMangano if you can’t wait.
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Week 11 NFL Matchups – 1:00 PM ET Games
Important note and credits about data used in this article:
- All snap counts taken from Football Outsiders. Adjusted line yards also taken from Football outsiders. You can read more here.
- Success rate is taken from Sharp Football Stats (Warren Sharp). You can read more about it here.
- Wide receiver snap percentages and corner grades/stats are taken from Pro Football Focus.
Teams on bye: Panthers, Colts, Jets, 49ers
Lions at Bears
Matchups We Love:
Ameer Abdullah (RB, DET)
After getting 21 carries in Week 9, Abdullah got just 11 on Sunday and only two targets. It was the second time in three games since the bye that he’s had only 11 carries. The Bears struggle stopping the run, ranking 28th in adjusted line yards and 15th in yards per attempt, and have allowed four top-11 scoring weeks in their last six games. Abdullah could see more work in this one but can’t be considered more than a low-end RB2.
Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)
Howard saw less than 19 carries for the first time in five games, running the ball only 15 times as the Bears played catch-up against the Packers. He could be in a similar situation this week if the Bears fall behind, but the matchup is in his favor as the Lions rank 26th in adjusted line yards and 17th in yards per attempt. They have allowed five top-9 scoring weeks as well. Howard is a solid RB1.
Kendall Wright (WR, CHI)
Wright now has eight targets in back to back games and draws a great matchup out of the slot against Quandre Diggs and the Lions slot corners that are allowing 2.1 PPR points per target and have given up three touchdowns. Wright is always a risky start but should be a viable flex option this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford has been a great start for most of the year but may struggle against a Bears defense that ranks 10th in yards per game and fourth in touchdown percentage against. The only top-10 finishes they have allowed were to Matt Ryan in Week 1 (QB10) and Aaron Rodgers in Week 4 (QB8). No other quarterback has a finish better than 16th. Stafford is too good to bench but owners should temper expectations.
Eric Ebron (TE, DET)
Ebron has more than four targets just once over the last five games, and draws a tough matchup against a Bears defense that ranks third in success rate on throws to tight ends and 14th in yards per attempt. They have allowed only two, top-12 scoring week on the season, and Ebron is not likely to make it a third. He is a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
Adam Shaheen (TE, CHI)
Shaheen saw a season-high two targets in Week 10 but can’t be trusted against a Lions defense that ranks seventh in success rate on throws to tight ends and has held six tight ends to finishes of TE18 or worse. Shaheen should remain on benches, even in dynasty leagues.
Other Matchups:
Theo Riddick (RB, DET) has at least four carries in all three games since the bye but just nine targets over that stretch. The Bears are an average unit against pass-catching backs, ranking 23rd in success rate but 11th in yards per attempt. Riddick is a low-end PPR flex play.
Golden Tate (WR, DET) has at least seven targets in his last five games and draws a good matchup against the Bears slot corners that are allowing 1.66 PPR points per target. Tate should once again be heavily involved and is on the WR1 radar in PPR formats. Marvin Jones (WR, DET) had seen double-digit targets in three straight before seeing just two in Week 10. Perhaps that was due to the return of Kenny Golladay (WR, DET) but we’ll chalk it up to variance. Jones is in a fine spot this week against the Bears outside corners who are allowing 1.61 PPR points per target, and are giving up over 65 yards to teams number one receiver. Jones is a solid WR2 play. Golladay returned and saw three targets, but is still unable to be trusted in fantasy lineups. His role could increase, however, and he’s one to keep an eye on.
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI) is coming off his best game of the season and could build on that against a Lions defense that ranks 25th in yards per game and 20th in sack rate, but does rank eighth in touchdown percentage against. They’ve given a QB13 finish to Brett Hundley and QB7 finish to DeShone Kizer in the last two weeks. Trubisky is a solid QB2 play with upside for more.
Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI) has seen just five carries and five targets over the last two games and is barely fantasy relevant. He’s been losing work to Benny Cunningham (RB, CHI) who had four targets on Sunday. Cohen is nothing more than a desperation flex play in deep PPR leagues.
Dontrelle Inman (WR, CHI) started his first game for the Bears and tied for the team lead with eight targets. He played 80% of his snaps on the outside, though it’s unlikely he will be shadowed by Darius Slay. The Lions are an OK matchup as they allow 1.58 PPR points per target to outside receivers and have given up seven touchdowns. Inman should once again see plenty of targets and makes a solid flex start.
Jaguars at Browns
Matchups We Love:
Marcedes Lewis (TE, JAC)
Lewis is a sneaky streaming option against a Browns defense that ranks 28th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 17th in yards per attempt. They’ve allowed six top-12 scoring weeks and only one outside the top 14. Lewis has 11 targets over the last two games and is a high-end TE2 play
Matchups We Hate:
Leonard Fournette (RB, JAC)
Despite struggling to find running room, and watching from the sidelines for most of the fourth quarter as the Jaguars played from behind, Fournette still got 17 carries and four targets. He’s now had at least 17 carries in every game except one, and will need all the volume he can get against a Browns defense that ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. Despite the tough matchup, Fournette’s volume keeps him firmly in the RB1 range. Just be wary of his injury status leading up to the game in case he is a surprise inactive.
Marqise Lee (WR, JAC)
Lee has seen double-digit targets in three of the last four, and has scored three touchdowns over the last two. Things will get tougher this week, however, as he is expected to be shadowed by Jason McCourty. On the year McCourty has allowed just one touchdown and is giving up 1.47 PPR points per target. Lee will need heavy volume to produce again.
DeShone Kizer (QB, CLE)
It’s Kizer. It’s the Jaguars. It’s an easy sit. Despite coming off a strong performance against the Lions on Sunday, Kizer cannot be trusted against a Jaguars defense that ranks first in yards per game, touchdown percentage against and sack rate. Phillip Rivers’ QB16 finish in Week 10 was the best finish of any quarterback against this team. Kizer is an easy bench in all formats.
Corey Coleman (WR, CLE)
Coleman will be making his first start since Week 2, and though Hue Jackson said he doesn’t expect Coleman to be on a snap count, owners probably want to give him a week if possible. Playing primarily on the outside will match him up against stud corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. On the season they have yet to give up a touchdown and are allowing 1.01 PPR points per target. Only the most desperate can consider starting Coleman this week.
Other Matchups:
Blake Bortles (QB, JAC) threw the ball 51 times in the teams overtime win against the Chargers, but it seems likely the Jaguars will want to return to their ball control ways against an inferior Browns team. The Browns are a good matchup, ranking 17th in both yards per game and sack rate, and dead last in touchdown percentage against. They’ve allowed five top-8 finishes and only one quarterback has finished worse than 16th (Marcus Mariota in Week 7). Bortles is a solid QB2 play and makes a decent streaming option in deeper leagues.
T.J. Yeldon (RB, JAC) is working himself into low-end PPR flex range with 12 targets in the last two games including an either target Week 10. The Browns struggle a bit against pass catching backs ranking 20th in success rate and 25th in yards per attempt. Still, it’s unlikely the Jaguars ask Bortles to throw 50+ times again which will keep Yeldon as a desperation flex play in PPR only.
Keelan Cole (WR, JAC) has 13 targets over the last two games and is a sneaky start against the Browns outside corners not named Jason McCourty, who are allowing 1.9 PPR points per target and have given up four touchdowns. With Allen Hurns out, and Marqise Lee facing shadow coverage, Cole could see more targets in a plus spot. He is a deep league PPR flex play. Rookie Dede Westbrook (WR, JAC) will finally make his NFL debut filling in for slot receiver Hurns. The matchup is just OK as the Browns slot receivers are allowing 1.56 PPR points per target and have given up just two touchdowns on the season. It remains to be seen what Westbrook’s involvement will be and for now he is better left on benches.
Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE) now has 16 or more carries in three of the last five games and has scored in each of his last two. The Jaguars run defense is much improved since they traded for Marcell Darius as they have held the Chargers to 2.65 YPC and the Bengals to 2.14 YPC in consecutive weeks. Crowell is a volume based, low-end RB2 play. Duke Johnson (RB, CLE) has at least five targets in four straight games and could take advantage of a Jaguars defense that just gave up five catches, 77 yards and two touchdowns to Austin Ekeler through the air. Johnson remains a solid PPR flex with upside for more.
David Njoku (TE, CLE) and Seth DeValve (TE, CLE) each had six targets on Sunday, but Njoku had two red zone targets while DeValve didn’t have any. The Jaguars are just an average matchup, ranking 12th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 10th in yards per attempt. Neither can be trusted as more than a TE2 though we’d prefer Njoku.
Ravens at Packers
Matchups We Love:
Jeremy Maclin (WR, BAL)
Maclin is coming off a nine-target game and gets a great matchup against Packers slot corners who have given up three touchdowns and are allowing 2.25 PPR points per target. Maclin should once again be a favorite target of Flacco’s and is in the WR3 discussion with upside for more.
Mike Wallace (WR, BAL)
Wallace plays almost 90% of the time on the outside and will have a big advantage over the Packers outside corners that have given up seven touchdowns and are allowing 1.92 PPR points per target. Wallace carries risk as he had just nine targets in the previous three games combined before getting seven in Week 10. Still, Wallace is a solid flex start.
Matchups We Hate:
Alex Collins (RB, BAL)
Reports are Collins will remain the lead back even with the return of Terrance West (RB, BAL) from injury. Collins has only seen 15 or more carries twice over the last six games and could struggle against a Packers defense that ranks eighth in adjusted line yards and 10th in yards per attempt. Collins can’t be considered more than a flex play.
Brett Hundley (QB, GB)
Hundley has shown improvement over the last two games but will be up against it with a Ravens defense that ranks third in yards per game and 13th in touchdown percentage against. Only one quarterback, Blake Bortles in Week 3, has a better than QB17 finish, and that was a crazy London game were the Ravens looked completely out of it. Despite his improvements, it seems unlikely Hundley can be trusted in this matchup.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Since Hundley took over for Aaron Rodgers three games ago, Adams has led the team in targets in each one and has seen double-digit targets in the last two. He’ll need to do that for a third straight week to have any chance of a good fantasy outing against the Ravens outside corners who have given up just two touchdowns on the season and are allowing 1.31 PPR points per target. Adams can’t be considered more than a flex in such a tough spot.
Other Matchups:
Joe Flacco (QB, BAL) played his best game of the season before the team’s bye and will look to build on that against a Packers defense that ranks 20th in yards allowed per game and 15th in touchdown percentage against. The only top-11 finishes against this defense are from three elite quarterbacks: Dak Prescott, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. No other quarterback has finished higher than QB14. Flacco is a low-end QB2 play.
With the likely return of Danny Woodhead (RB, BAL) to the lineup, Javorius Allen (RB, BAL) will likely see a reduced role. The matchup is good as the Packers rank 25th in success rate on throws to running backs and 21st in yards per attempt. Despite the good matchup, neither Woodhead or Allen can be considered more than flex starts in PPR formats until we get more clarity.
Benjamin Watson (TE, BAL) continues to fend off Father Time, and is coming off a 10-arget Week 10 outing. He now has five or more targets in four of the last six contests. The matchup this week is just OK, as the Packers rank 23rd in success rate on throws to tight ends but ninth in yards per attempt. Watson is a better play in PPR formats and should be viewed as a TE2.
With Ty Montgomery (RB, GB) ruled out, rookie Jamaal Williams (RB, GB) will inherit the starting role, though it should be noted he has looked less than good this year. The matchup is fine as the Ravens rank 20th in yards per attempt. Williams should be in line for a ton of carries and will have flex value.
Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) and Randall Cobb (WR, GB) have seen more than four targets just once each with Hundley under center and can’t be trusted against a tough Ravens secondary. Both are little more than desperation flex plays and should be benched if possible.
Without Martellus Bennett, Lance Kendricks (TE, GB) led with two targets while Richard Rodgers (TE, GB) had just one. Neither can be trusted for anything at the moment and both should remain out of fantasy lineups.
Cardinals at Texans
Matchups We Love:
Blaine Gabbert (QB, ARI)
Gabbert will make the start for a banged up Drew Stanton (QB, ARI) and gets a favorable matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 27th in yards per game and 30th in touchdown percentage allowed, but is a strong pass rushing unit ranking 11th in sack rate. They have given up four top-nine quarterback weeks in the last five games. While Gabbert is unlikely to add to that total, he is a solid QB2 play and a decent streaming option.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
Fitzgerald has nine or more targets in three of the last four and should continue to be the number one option even with Gabbert under center. Fitzgerald is in a smash spot against the Texans slot corners who are allowing 2.2 PPR points per target. Fitzgerald should be considered a WR1, especially in PPR formats.
Matchups We Hate:
Adrian Peterson (RB, ARI)
Despite his inefficiency, the Cardinals continued to pound the ball with Peterson until they were essentially out of it last week. Since joining the Cardinals, Peterson has 21, 37 and 26 carries in three of four games. The matchup is once again tough as the Texans rank sixth in adjusted line yards and seventh in yards per attempt. With Gabbert set to the start, and the Texans offensive struggles of their own, the game should remain close and Peterson should see another 20 carries. Unfortunately he may once again be inefficient and can’t be considered more than a low-end RB2 at best.
Lamar Miller (RB, HOU), D’Onta Foreman (RB, HOU)
Miller only has 21 carries over the last two games as Foreman has gotten back into the mix, handling 18 carries over that stretch. The matchup this week is not ideal as the Cardinals rank fifth in adjusted line yards and sixth in yards per attempt. Unless Miller can come close to 20 carries (not likely) he can’t be considered more than a flex while Foreman is nothing more than a desperation play.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU)
This is what WR/CB matchups are all about. Two of the absolute best at their position will go toe-to-toe and we should all sit back and enjoy it. Hopkins has been a target machine with at least 11 in four of the last five and should continue to get peppered. His efficiency is already low with Savage under center, and will likely be even lower against Peterson who has allowed just one touchdown and is giving up 1.1 PPR points per target. You can’t bench Hopkins, but owners should temper expectations.
Other Matchups:
Andre Ellington (RB, ARI) has nine targets over the last two games and will carry some low-end flex value in games the Cardinals are playing from behind. Unfortunately this week doesn’t look like one of those games, and the Texans do a good job ranking 14th in success rate on throws to running backs and 16th in yards per attempt. This is a week Ellington can be left on the bench.
After getting three or less targets in four straight games, Jermaine Gresham (TE, ARI) had a surprising seven in Week 10. Owners should not expect a repeat as the Texans rank 10th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 19th in yards per attempt. Gresham is barely on the TE2 radar.
Tom Savage (QB, HOU) draws an OK matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 23rd in yards per game and 18th in touchdown percentage against. While they have allowed six top-12 scoring weeks, they have also faced a gauntlet of elite pass catchers. On the season they have faced Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff and Russell Wilson. Savage is not even close to the class of those guys and can’t be considered more than a low-end QB2 start.
Bruce Ellington (WR, HOU) is a sneaky start with Will Fuller (WR, HOU) expected to miss at least one game. The Cardinals slot corners are allowing 1.57 PPR points per target, and Ellington has seen eight targets in back to back games. He is a low-end flex play.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, HOU) played his first game since getting hurt Week 1 and saw six targets, but caught just two of them for 10 yards. He should continue to be a favorite target of Savage’s, but his inaccuracy will limit Fiedorowicz’ production. The matchup this week is OK as the Cardinals rank 26th in success rate on throws to tight ends but rank fourth in yards per attempt. Fiedorowicz is a low-end TE2 play.
Buccaneers at Dolphins
Matchups We Love:
Doug Martin (RB, TAM)
Martin has 18 more more carries in three of the last four, and the Buccaneers could lean on him this week against a Dolphins defense that looks like it is competing with the Giants for worst in the NFL. The Dolphins rank 21st in adjusted line yards and 27th in yards per attempt, and just allowed a 110 yard game to Jonathan Stewart. Martin is in a great spot and can be considered a fringe RB1 in this matchup.
Mike Evans (WR, TAM), DeSean Jackson (WR, TAM)
Evans will return from his one game suspension and is in a great spot against the Dolphins outside corners who have given up seven touchdowns and are allowing 1.79 PPR points per target. Devin Funchess just torched this unit for 92 yards and two touchdowns on just six targets. Even with Fitzpatrick under center, Evans should see close to double-digit targets as Chris Godwin assumed his role and saw 10. He is a locked-in must start. Jackson will also get chances against the outside receivers, but it remains to be seen how many looks he’ll get with Fitzpatrick and Evans in the lineup. Still, in a plus matchup he should be considered a WR3 play.
Jay Cutler (QB, MIA)
Cutler has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four straight games, and gets a Buccaneers defense that ranks 19th in touchdown percentage allowed and 29th in yards per game. They also get virtually no pressure ranking 29th in sack rate, which has been a big problem for the Dolphins offensive line. Only one quarterback, Mike Glennon, has failed to post a QB2 week against them and five have posted top-12 weeks. Cutler is a high-end QB2 with upside for more.
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)
Landry has seen double-digit targets in four of the last five, and should be heavily involved once again matching up with Buccaneers slot corners who are allowing 1.92 PPR points per target and have forced just eight incompletions on 32 throws. Landry rarely racks up big yardage which limits him a bit in standard formats, but he is an easy WR1 play in PPR leagues.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
Parker has 17 targets in the two games since returning from injury and draws a great matchup against the Buccaneers outside corners who have given up six touchdowns and are allowing 1.8 PPR points per target. Parker has offered a solid weekly floor but has yet to have that one big game since his Week 3 performance. This could certainly be the game and he makes for a solid WR2 play with upside.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, TAM) offers some streaming value against a Dolphins defense that ranks 15th in yards per game and 27th in touchdown percentage, and just pulled off a great Giants impersonation on Monday night. Prior to Monday night, the Dolphins had only allowed two top-12 scoring weeks so there is certainly risk.
Cameron Brate (TE, TAM) saw just three targets with Fitzpatrick making his first start, while O.J. Howard (TE, TAM) saw zero. Fitzpatrick has never been one to target his tight ends much and the values of both of these players could be fading. The Dolphins are a good matchup, ranking 25th in success rate on throws to tight ends and having allowed four straight top-12 scoring weeks. Brate is always a touchdown threat but with his reduced role can’t be considered more than a high-end TE2 while Howard can be left out of lineups.
Since the Jay Ajayi trade, Damien Williams (RB, MIA) has 16 carries and nine targets while Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA) has 16 and eight. The Buccaneers are just an average run stopping unit ranking 13th in adjusted line yards and 14th in yards per attempt. Against pass catching backs they rank 16th in success rate and 22nd in yards per attempt. With Williams and Drake splitting the usage neither can be considered more than a flex play even in a decent matchup.
Kenny Stills (WR, MIA) is hanging on to some low-end flex appeal especially with the Dolphins defense forcing the offense to play from behind. He has 12 targets in the two games since Parker’s return from injury, and against the Buccaneers that is enough to give him value. His upside is limited, however, as the third option on this team.
Julius Thomas (TE, MIA) has at least four targets in five of the last six and three red zone targets in the last two. The Buccaneers do a surprisingly good job against tight ends, ranking 11th in success rate. They have allowed three, top-11 scoring weeks in the last five games, however. Thomas should be considered a fringe TE1 play.
Rams at Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Latavius Murray (RB, MIN)
Murray now has at least 15 carries and two red zone carries in four straight games. The Rams present a great opportunity for Murray ranking 29th in yards per attempt and have given up eight touchdowns (tied for 6th most) on the ground. Murray should be considered a flex with upside for more.
Matchups We Hate:
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Goff has been a different player this year, and has at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games. It’s unlikely he’ll make it a third, however, as the Vikings rank 12th in yards per game and fifth in touchdown percentage allowed. They have given up top-12 scoring weeks in two straight after having allowed just one all season, and Kirk Cousins did throw for over 300 yards against them Sunday, so it can be done. Goff is in must-start territory but owners should temper expectations.
Todd Gurley (RB, LAR)
Gurley is coming off his lowest carry total of the season with just 11, but did have seven targets. This shouldn’t be a cause for concern, however, as the Rams had this one in control early. He should see closer to 20 carries this week and he’ll need all of them against a Vikings defense that ranks fifth in yards per attempt and has allowed only one, top-12 running back scoring week on the season. Regardless of the tough spot, Gurley is a locked-in weekly must start.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Kupp has a tough matchup out of the slot against the Vikings slot corners who have given up just one touchdown and are allowing 1.42 PPR points per target. Kupp has at least five targets in four of the last five games, but can’t be considered more than a flex start in such a tough spot.
Case Keenum (QB, MIN)
Reports are Keenum was almost benched this week for Teddy Bridgewater (QB, MIN) and could be on a short leash against a Rams defense that ranks ninth in yards per game and 12th in touchdown percentage against. They also are one of the best teams at pressuring the quarterback ranking fourth in sack rate. They haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish higher than QB16 since Dak Prescott’s QB9 finish in Week 4. Keenum is a risky QB2 play.
Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN)
Diggs lines up on the outside about 80% of the time and draws a tough matchup against the Rams outside corners who have given up just one touchdown and are allowing 1.39 PPR points per target. Diggs has seen just 11 targets in the two games since returning from injury and can’t be considered more than a WR2 play in this matchup.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Thielen is back to playing out of the slot with Diggs back and gets a tough test against the Rams slot corners who have allowed just one touchdown and give up 1.31 PPR points per target. Thielen has double-digit targets in four straight, so the volume should be there, but in a tough spot he can’t be considered more than a WR2.
Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)
Rudolph has at least seven targets in five straight games but may struggle against a Rams defense that ranks first in success rate on throws to tight ends and fifth in yards per attempt. They’ve only allowed two, top-12 scoring weeks on the season. Still, even in a tough spot you can’t bench Rudolph and he is a fringe TE1 play.
Other Matchups:
Robert Woods (WR, LAR) has at least seven targets in four of the last five, and lines up to the right or in the slot on 86% of his snaps. That will match him up against Trae Waynes and the Vikings slot corners, who combined have allowed four touchdowns and are giving up 1.6 PPR points per target. Woods is once again a solid start and should be viewed as a low-end WR2 in this matchup. I’m throwing Sammy Watkins (WR, LAR) owners a bone this week. Despite averaging just 3.6 targets over the last six games, and seeing only five combined the last two weeks, he has managed to score twice. He’s a touchdown dependent, boom/bust play who shouldn’t be started unless you are completely desperate at the position, especially against a tough Vikings secondary.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR) has only six targets over the last two games (but hey, that’s still more than Watkins) and gets just an OK matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 18th in success rate on throws to tight ends but seventh in yards per attempt. Higbee should not be trusted if possible.
Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN) has seen a reduction in carries over the last two games and got just two targets as the Vikings played with a big lead. This game should be closer which should get McKinnon more involved in the passing game, though the Rams do a good job ranking 10th in success rate and 18th in yards per attempt. McKinnon is a low-end RB2 in PPR formats.
Chiefs at Giants
Matchups We Love:
Alex Smith (QB, KC)
What can you say about this Giants defense? They’ve completely quit and are now a fantasy gold mine for opponents. They rank 30th in yards per game and 29th in touchdown percentage against. Since Week 4 every quarterback they have faced has a QB7 or better finish. C.J. Beathard just put up QB4 numbers. Smith is a locked-in must start.
Kareem Hunt (RB, KC)
Hunt owners hopefully you haven’t panicked as he is in a get-right matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards and yards per attempt, and just gave up 5.76 yards per carry to Carlos Hyde. If Hunt doesn’t produce this week it is officially panic time, but that doesn’t seem likely and he is a locked-in must start.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill lines up all over the field and will have great matchups everywhere against a Giants defense that has quit on the season and has allowed 11 touchdowns and is giving up 1.86 PPR points per target. Hill has been the definition of boom/bust and this should be a boom spot for him.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
The Giants have allowed a touchdown to every tight end they have faced this year and that trend should continue against one of the best in Kelce. Every single tight end to play them has finished with a top-12 week and there is no reason to think Kelce can’t finish as the overall TE1. He is a locked-in must start.
Eli Manning (QB, NYG)
Manning has back-to-back two touchdown games and now gets a Chiefs defense at home that ranks 28th in yards per game and 23rd in touchdown percentage allowed. They have allowed five, top-10 scoring weeks and only one quarterback, Philip Rivers in Week 3, has failed to put up QB2 numbers. Manning is a high-end QB2 and a viable streaming option.
Orleans Darkwa (RB, NYG)
The Chiefs defense has been abysmal this year, and now ranks 31st in adjusted line yards and 28th in yards per attempt. They have given up four straight top-11 scoring weeks to running back units as well. Darkwa now has 14 or more carries and two or more targets in three of the last four, and can be considered a low-end RB2 play in this matchup.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Shepard has 22 targets in the two games since returning from injury and is clearly the team’s number one receiver. He has continued to operate out of the slot playing 84% of snaps there and gets a great matchup against the Chiefs slot receivers that are allowing 1.77 PPR points per target. Shepard is a solid start with big upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Shane Vereen (RB, NYG)
Vereen is holding low-end flex value in deep PPR formats as he now has four targets in three straight. Unfortunately the Chiefs are excellent against pass catching backs, ranking first in both success rate and yards per attempt. Vereen should remain on benches this week.
Other Matchups:
Evan Engram (TE, NYG) has at least nine targets in the three games since Odell Beckham’s injury and should continue to see close to double-digit targets. The matchup this week is just OK as the Cheifs rank 13th in success rate on throws to tight ends but 31st in yards per attempt. Regardless, Engram is a weekly must start and an easy TE1 play.
Redskins at Saints
Matchups We Love:
Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)
Crowder has seen 24 targets over his last two games and 199 yards and has emerged as Cousin’s go-to target. The Saints have been a strong pass defense but one area they have struggled is in the slot, allowing 1.89 PPR points per target. Crowder is emerging as a solid weekly start especially in PPR formats.
Matchups We Hate:
Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS)
Cousins just put up 327 yards and two touchdowns (1 rushing) against a tough Vikings defense, so it will be hard for owners to sit him despite the Saints improved pass defense that ranks seventh in yards per game and 11th in touchdown percentage against. They are also 10th in sack rate so Cousins will be under plenty of pressure. Since Week 2 they have only allowed one quarterback finish higher than 19th when Matt Stafford posted a QB11 week. Cousins is a fringe QB1 play.
Josh Doctson (WR, WAS)
Doctson has 12 targets over the last two games and his role in this offense is increasing, but he’ll likely have a tough time of it against the Saints outside corners who have given up just three touchdowns and are allowing 1.35 PPR points per target. Doctson can’t be considered more than a flex play.
Vernon Davis (TE, WAS)
Now that Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) has been ruled out, it means Davis will play the bulk of the team’s snaps at tight end again. In the two previous games Reed missed, Davis saw nine and 11 targets. While the targets should be there, the matchup is less than ideal as the Saints rank sixth in success rate on throws to tight ends and third in yards per attempt. The have given up only one, top-12 scoring week as well. Still, In this tight end landscape, Davis has to be considered a fringe TE1 play.
Other Matchups:
With Rob Kelley (RB, WAS) on IR, Samaje Perine (RB, WAS) will get another crack as the starter. Perine has looked like a plodder in every sense of the word and will be facing a Saints defense that ranks 10th in adjusted line yards but 23rd in yards per attempt. The Redskins are not a high-volume running team and Perine can’t be considered more than a flex play. With Kelley out, Chris Thompson (RB, WAS) should handle more work in the running game as well as his usual passing game work. Thompson has five or more targets in five straight games, and gets a Saints defense that ranks 21st in success rate on throws to running backs and 14th in yards per attempt. Thompson is a solid RB2 in PPR leagues.
Despite not putting up the fantasy numbers typically expected, Drew Brees (QB, NO) is playing at an elite level, he’s just not being asked to do as much as in years past. Still, against a Redskins defense that ranks 18th in yards per game, and 25th in touchdown percentage, and has allowed five, top-12 scoring weeks in the last seven games, Brees is a solid QB1 start.
Mark Ingram (RB, NO) has 21 or more carries in three of the last five, and at least 16 in each of them. Unfortunately his usage in the passing game has disappeared as he has only one target over the last two games. The Redskins are a decent run-stopping unit ranking 11th in yards per attempt and have given up just two, top-12 scoring weeks all season. Still, Ingram is a set-and-forget RB1 regardless of matchup at the moment. Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) has at least 10 carries and five targets in three of the last five games and is in a good spot against a Redskins defense that ranks 31st in success rate on throws to running backs and 20th in yards per attempt. Kamara is a fringe RB1 in PPR formats.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO) has ten or more targets in three of the last five and at least 14.5 PPR points in four straight. He should once again be a consistent option, but may lack upside against the Redskins outside corners who have given up just five touchdowns and allow 1.5 PPR points per target. Still, Thomas is an easy WR1 start. After seeing at least four targets in four straight games, Ted Ginn (WR, NO) saw just one in Week 10 as the Saints controlled the game on the ground. Against a Redskins team that should keep the game closer Ginn should be in-line for four plus targets once again and makes a fine flex start.
NFL Week 11 Matchups – 4:00 PM ET Games
Bills at Chargers
Matchups We Love:
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
McCoy has had two straight sub-par games but is in a bounce-back spot against a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in adjusted line yards, 30th in yards per attempt and has given up five, top-12 scoring weeks. There is some cause for concern, however, as the Chargers could load the box and force Peterman to beat them. Still, McCoy has to be considered a RB1 in this matchup.
Melvin Gordon (RB, LAC)
Since the Bills traded Marcell Dareus three weeks ago, they’ve allowed 5.3 YPC and 10 rushing touchdowns, after allowing just 3.46 YPC and four touchdowns in the previous six games. The Saints just blasted them for 300 yards and five rushing touchdowns. Gordon has at least 16 carries in four of the last five, and at least eight targets in three of the last five. He is a locked-in must start and could finish as overall RB1.
Matchups We Hate:
Nathan Peterman (QB, BUF)
In a shocking move, the Bills announced on Wednesday that they would bench quarterback Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF) and start fifth-round rookie Nate Peterman. Peterman will get thrown into the fire against a Chargers defense that ranks 11th in yards per game, fifth in touchdown percentage against and third in sack rate. It’s less than an ideal spot for a player making his first NFL start and Peterman can’t be trusted in any formats.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen lines up to the left and slot on 81% of his snaps, which means he will see E.J. Gaines who returns from injury and the Bills slot corners who have yet to allow a touchdown and are giving up just 1.22 PPR points per target. Allen has just seven, five and seven targets over the last three and will need way more volume to pay off for owners.
Other Matchups:
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, BUF) led the Bills with six targets in his first game with his new team, but there is a lot of unknown with rookie Peterman making his first start. While Benjamin should avoid shadow coverage from Casey Hayward, it doesn’t make this much better of a matchup as the Chargers outside corners have given up only three touchdowns and are allowing just 1.49 PPR points per target. With a rookie quarterback and a tough matchup, Benjamin can’t be considered more than a flex play.
Charles Clay (TE, BUF)
Clay returned from injury and saw just three targets, and it remains to be seen how involved he will be with Peterman under center. The matchup is just OK as the Chargers rank 13th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 23rd in yards per attempt. Clay can’t be considered more than a TE2 until we see more.
The Bills defense has struggled of late which should help Philip Rivers (QB, LAC). They rank 21st in yards per game but second in touchdown percentage, but are one of the worst pass rushing units ranking 30th in sack rate. With time to throw Rivers should be able to pick the defense apart and is a high-end QB2 play.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC) may be playing himself into flex status, as he now has at least four carries and/or four targets in three of the last five. Still, it’s probably too soon to start him in all but the deepest of leagues, but he is a name to keep an eye on.
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC) and Antonio Gates (TE, LAC) each have two targets in the last two games. The matchup this week is excellent as the Bills rank 32nd in success rate on throws to tight ends and 27th in yards per attempt. Still, neither Henry or Gates have been involved enough lately to be must starts. Henry can be considered a high-end TE2 in a plus matchup while Gates should be left out of lineups.
Bengals at Broncos
Matchups We Love:
Tyler Kroft (TE, CIN)
Kroft saw six targets in Week 10 but caught just one for four yards. He now has at least six targets in two of the last three and at least four targets in five of the last six. He should post better numbers against a Broncos defense that ranks 30th in both success rate on throws to tight ends and yards per attempt. They have also allowed three straight top-five scoring weeks. Kroft is a fringe TE1 play.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon continues to handle the bulk of the running back work for the Bengals, but is averaging just 10 carries and three targets per game over the last four. A big part of that is the Bengals are running very few plays. He’ll need way more volume this week to pay off for owners against a Broncos defense that ranks third in both adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. Mixon is nothing more than a flex play.
Brock Osweiler (QB, DEN)
Since becoming the teams starter in Week 9, Osweiler has two touchdowns versus three interceptions and has yet to throw for more than 221 yards. Things won’t get any easier against a Bengals defense that ranks fifth in yards per game and ninth in both touchdown percentage allowed and sack rate. Osweiler has yet to score more than 12 points in a game and can’t be started in any format.
Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN), Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN)
Thomas has 20 targets in the two games since Osweiler became the starter, and dating back to 2015 he seems to be his preferred target. Thomas has a tough matchup this week against the Bengals outside corners who are allowing just 1.38 PPR points per target, but have given up six touchdowns. Thomas has to be considered a WR2 in a tough spot. Sanders played 87% of snaps in his second game back from his ankle injury and led the team with 11 targets. Historically, Sanders has been behind Thomas in targets when Osweiler starts, and in a tough matchup has to be considered more of a WR3.
Other Matchups:
Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) is coming off a 265 yard, two touchdown game and could post similar numbers against a Broncos defense that ranks eighth in yards per game but 31st in touchdown percentage allowed. They’ve given up back-to-back QB5 finishes to Carson Wentz and Tom Brady, and while Dalton is not near the same class of those two, he is good enough to be considered a high-end QB2 play with upside for more.
A.J. Green (WR, CIN) has seen just 23 targets over the last four games as the Bengals offense has slowed to a crawl’s pace. Still, he’s seeing a 27% target share which is seventh best among wide receivers. The Broncos defense is no longer the vaunted shut-down defense of years past as they have given up seven touchdowns to outside receivers and are allowing 1.6 PPR points per target. Green is a weekly must start and this week is no different. Brandon LaFell (WR, CIN) has 24 targets over the same stretch and continues to be a sneaky flex start. That should continue as he lines up all over the field and won’t face any truly “tough” matchups.
The Broncos backfield is a full-blown RBBC as C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN) has 19 carries and two targets over the last two games. Meanwhile Devontae Booker (RB, DEN) has seen his usage increase but still only has 14 carries and four targets over the last two, while Jamaal Charles (RB, DEN) has 12 carries and five targets. The Bengals are not an imposing defense, ranking 27th in adjusted line yards and having allowed four straight top-9 finishes. Still, none of the Broncos running backs can be considered more than flex plays.
A.J. Derby (TE, DEN) has only four targets over the last two games but does get a plus matchup against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in success rate on throws to tight ends and 26th in yards per attempt. Still, with such a low usage he can’t be considered more than a TE2.
Patriots at Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, NE)
Brady has been nothing if not consistent, and has posted at least 17 points in four straight. This week he is in a blow-up spot against a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd in yards per game and 20th in touchdown percentage allowed. The Raiders get virtually no pressure ranking 28th in sack rate so Brady will have time as well. Only Trevor Siemian and Joe Flacco have failed to post QB13 or better weeks against this defense. Brady is a locked-in must start.
Dion Lewis (RB, NE), Rex Burkhead (RB, NE)
Lewis continues to operate as the early down back and now has double-digit carries in four straight and 29 over the last two games. The Raiders rank 24th in adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. Lewis is a great start this week and is a solid RB2 with upside for more. Burkhead, meanwhile, handled 10 carries on Sunday and saw three targets. The Raiders struggle against pass catching backs as well ranking 28th in success rate and 29th in yards per attempt. Burkhead is a solid flex play who could push into RB2 range.
Brandin Cooks (WR, NE)
With Chris Hogan (WR, NE) out in Week 10, Cooks saw 11 targets and should once again be in store for a lot of looks with Hogan set to miss another game. The Raiders outside corners are bad, to put it lightly, and have given up eight touchdowns and are allowing 2.06 PPR points per target. Cook is an easy WR1 play.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, OAK)
Coming off his one game suspension, Lynch dominated the Raiders backfield with 14 carries and two targets. He’s in a great spot this week against a Patriots defense that ranks dead last in both adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. Lynch should be locked into another decent workload and is a high-end RB2 play.
Amari Cooper (WR, OAK)
The Patriots use shadow coverage with all their corners so Cooper will lock up with Malcolm Butler. On the season, Butler has given up four touchdowns and is allowing 1.94 PPR points per target. Cooper has at least nine targets in his last three games and is in a great spot. He is a fringe WR1 play.
Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)
Crabtree is also in a great spot against corner Stephon Gilmore, who has given up just two touchdowns but allows 1.98 PPR points per target. Crabtree has seen just 21 targets in the last three games, but in a contest that looks like a shootout on paper he could be in store for more. Crabtree is an easy WR2 play with upside for more.
Matchups We Hate:
Other Matchups:
James White (RB, NE) seems to be the odd man out, as he got just two carries and three targets on Sunday. He is little more than a desperation flex play in PPR formats.
Danny Amendola (WR, NE) was third behind Cooks and Gronkowski in targets with Hogan out, but remains little more than a PPR flex start against the Raiders slot corners who have given up just one touchdown and allow 1.68 PPR points per target.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE) has seven or more targets in his last four games and seven red zone targets over that stretch. The Raiders are an OK matchup, ranking 19th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 24th in yards per attempt. Gronkowski is a weekly must start regardless of matchup and should be a high-end TE1 play as usual.
The Patriots defense has looked much improved over the last three weeks, but Derek Carr (QB, OAK) is still in a good spot. The Patriots still rank dead last in yards per game and 24th in touchdown percentage allowed. They held Matt Ryan to a QB14 finish in Week 7 and Philip Rivers to a QB21 finish Week 8, but Carr is a class above those and should be a fringe QB1 start.
Jared Cook (TE, OAK) has at least five targets in five of the last six games, and should continue to be heavily involved against a Patriots defense that ranks 24th in success rate on throws to tight ends but hasn’t allowed a top-12 scorer since Week 6. Still, Cook is a fringe TE1 play in a good spot.
NFL Week 11 Matchups – Sunday Night Football
Eagles at Cowboys
Matchups We Love:
Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI)
Jeffery hasn’t had many plus matchups on the year, but he gets one this week against the Cowboys outside corners who have given up 10 touchdowns and allow 1.83 PPR points per target. Jeffery has seen eight or more targets in three of the last four, and double-digit targets in two. He’s a high-end WR2 with upside for more.
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
The Cowboys rank 27th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 20th in yards per attempt. They have given up back-to-back top-3 scoring weeks to Travis Kelce and Austin Hooper. The loss of Sean Lee in the middle has been a big blow for this defense and Ertz should take advantage. Without Lee the Cowboys are allowing the second most yards per target to tight ends, versus the second fewest when Lee plays. He is a locked-in must start.
Matchups We Hate:
Nelson Agholor (WR, PHI)
Agholor has just seven targets over the last two games, and could struggle once again against the Cowboys slot corners who have yet to give up a touchdown and allow just 1.05 PPR points per target. They held Mohamed Sanu to just three catches for 29 yards in Week 10 and Agholor will likely face a similar fate.
Alfred Morris (RB, DAL), Rod Smith (RB, DAL)
As expected, Morris led the backfield but saw just 11 carries as the Cowboys were in catch-up mode. Smith, meanwhile, handled the passing down work and got six targets. The same scenario will likely continue this week with Morris handling the early down work and Smith in on passing downs. Neither can be trusted for much this week against an Eagles defense that ranks first in adjusted line yards and yards per attempt, and also does an excellent job in the passing game ranking eighth in success rate and sixth in yards per attempt. Factor in the loss of left tackle Tyron Smith and both Morris and Smith should be benched if possible.
Other Matchups:
Carson Wentz (QB, PHI) has been playing at an MVP level and should continue to perform well against a Cowboys defense that ranks 14th in yards per game and 21st in touchdown percentage allowed, but is a good pass rushing unit ranking seventh in sack rate. While only three quarterbacks have top-12 finishes against this unit, Wentz should have no problem making it a fourth and is a weekly must start.
It’s still not clear how this Eagles backfield will shake out, but you’d have to think Jay Ajayi (RB, PHI) will see more than the seven carries he saw in his first game with the team. It will likely be closer to a 50/50 split with Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI) who has ran the ball well this season. The Cowboys are an average team against the run, but not having Sean Lee is a big loss as the Cowboys are giving up 4.7 yards per carry without him in the lineup versus 3.82 with him.
If the Cowboys had a better record, Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) would likely be a strong MVP candidate himself. He’s only had two games with less than 17 points and gets an Eagles defense that ranks 26th in yards per game and 14th in touchdown percentage allowed, but should get a boost with the return of Ronald Darby in the secondary. They’ve allowed sixa top-12 scoring weeks and there is no reason to think Prescott won’t make it a seventh. He is an easy QB1 play.
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL) has two double-digit target games in the last four, but saw only seven in Week 10 as Prescott was under immense pressure. The matchup is OK as the Eagles allow 1.56 PPR points per target but have given up eight touchdowns to outside receivers. Still, with Tyron Smith out for this offensive line, Prescott should once again have little time to throw. Bryant has to be considered a WR2 in this spot.
Jason Witten (TE, DAL) has at least four targets in four of the last five games and should make a solid TE2 start against an Eagles defense that ranks 17th in success rate on throws to tight ends and 15th in yards per attempt.
