Breaking down Week 11’s key NFL games to see which players you need to start in fantasy, and which ones you might want to sit out.
Fantasy football Week 11 start ’em
Quarterback to start in Week 11
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs Arizona Cardinals
Something interesting has happened ever since Vance Joseph was hired to be the defensive coordinator in Arizona: for all but one anomalous game, he has found a way to shut down the 49ers’ running game. The engine that makes the car run, if you will. This is difficult to do against Kyle Shanahan, and especially difficult given the fact he has done it so many times. The 49ers have run the ball the following yards since Joseph became the DC: 101, 34, 123, 227 (the anomaly), 152, and 39.
This has forced Jimmy Garoppolo to step up. Dare I say Jimmy G owns the Cardinals? In the four healthy games since Vance Joseph became the Cardinals DC, Jimmy G has averaged 24.29 fantasy points against the divisional rivals. There are no peaks and valleys here. The lowest performance yielded 19.34 points.
His weapons have gotten better this year too. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (more on him later), and Brandon Aiyuk are all healthy, and Christian McCaffrey is always a receiving threat.
The Cardinals have talent on the other side to keep up. I expect this to be a high-scoring game, and a good chance for Jimmy G to throw a couple of touchdowns.
Running backs to start in Week 11
Kenyan Drake/Gus Edwards (ARI) vs Carolina Panthers
The Ravens were unable to run the ball to begin the year outside of Lamar Jackson. To be fair, they have faced difficult run defenses. In the first five weeks, they played the Jets, the Dolphins, the Patriots, the Bills, and the Bengals. None of these defenses you particularly want to run on — they’re best beaten through the air.
The schedule softened for a couple of matchups, and we saw the run game open up. Kenyan Drake posted 119 yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants and Gus Edwards ran for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns.
Then something changed.
They became the Ravens run game we expected.
They ran over the Buccaneers’ stout run defense and Kenyan Drake went back to the well and posted 93 yards and 2 touchdowns against a respectable Saints run defense. These were both respectable wins.
Now they get the Carolina Panthers. This is a bottom-5 run defense that recently let Joe Mixon score 5 touchdowns on them.
Keep your eyes closely on the practice reports on this one. If Gus is healthy, he should have the lead role. If he sits, you can start Kenyan Drake with confidence.
Wide receiver to start in Week 11
Tee Higgins (CIN) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
I stared long and hard at Jarvis Landry on the waivers last week.
The reason I stared so hard was that Pittsburgh is so vulnerable against the outside. Receiver is generally, really. They rank no. 32 against fantasy wide receivers, and that’s even with the watered-down numbers Andy Dalton offered them last week.
Consider the last meeting Tee Higgins blew up for a 6-114-1 line. Burrow has not posted ungodly numbers against Pittsburgh, but he has found a way to hyper-target one and let Joe Mixon do his work with the ground game. With Ja’Marr Chase out you know that Higgins will be the one he relies on.
Tight end to start in Week 11
George Kittle (SF) vs Arizona Cardinals
As I noted before, the 49ers have to pass the ball to beat the Cardinals, and they have been successful against Vance Joseph’s group with their elite tight end. The last matchup resulted in a 6-101-1 line, and the Cardinals are dead last against fantasy tight ends this year. It’s a matchup that offenses look to exploit and Arizona is going to force the 49ers to throw the ball, much like how the Chargers tried to do last Sunday night.
The difference is that the Cardinals have historically been successful in making the 49ers pass the ball. And when they do they find success. Kittle has been up and down this season, but in a game in which Jimmy G should throw more, and against soft TE coverage, I expect Kittle to have a more than respectable output.
D/ST to start in Week 11
New England Patriots
We are all going to hear that the last time the Jets beat the Patriots was in 2015, and the last time they beat them without going to overtime was during Barack Obama’s first presidential term. This is true, but what does not get said out loud is just how lopsided these affairs are. These are rarely nail bitters.
Since the Jets last beat the Patriots, New England has won games by the following margins: 5, 41, 19, 14, 3, 33, 16, 35, 14, 20, 7, 38, 5.
They have held the Jets to less than 7 points five times.
They have beaten them by two touchdowns nine times.
And before you say this Jets team is different, know that Zach Wilson has a 71.4 career rating. In the three games against New England, he has thrown 7 interceptions and been sacked for that many times as well. He struggles against this team.
Fantasy football Week 11 sit ’em
Quarterback to sit in Week 11
Jared Goff (DET) vs New York Giants
If you want a sneak peek into how Goff will do against the Giants, consider what he did against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 last year. He threw the ball 30 times and gained only 217 yards. He had no touchdowns and was sacked twice. Detroit did not score until the third quarter. He was pressured on 27.3% of dropbacks and had to get the ball out of his hands quickly. 77% of the yards he threw came after the catch. He relied on a lot of quick slants and outs.
It was not a good fantasy output.
I bring this up because Don Martindale was the DC of the Ravens that day, and he will be the DC facing off against Goff this upcoming week. He loves to blitz. He loves to surprise. He loves to rattle opposing quarterbacks.
Goff is a man who does not like to be rattled.
Goff, as we have seen, has a stark difference between his highs and lows. We have seen his best games in a dome and his worst games outside, on the road, against an aggressive defense.
This is the latter, and that is why we should all bench him this week.
Running back to sit in Week 11
David Montgomery (CHI) vs Atlanta Falcons
Lost in the sensation over Justin Fields’s mind-bending fantasy run is the fact that the Bears’ lead back has not produced this season but for a couple of games. In fact, David Montgomery’s numbers are plummeting. In Weeks 6 and 7 he averaged 15 carries for 65 yards, but since then we’ve seen a decline in carries and yards. Every time Fields scampers for a 60-yard touchdown means less usage for the running back.
Now, you can run on Atlanta, but you could also run on Detroit last week. There is a chance he falls in the end zone, but when you start splitting work with Khalil Herbert and see more carries going to Justin Fields, the production (and the faith in future production) is simply not there.
UPDATE: Khalil Herbert has been placed on IR following a hip injury he suffered against the Lions in Week 10. Herbert will now miss a minimum of four games. David Montgomery should now return to near-workhorse status.
Wide receiver to sit in Week 11
Amari Cooper (CLE) vs Buffalo Bills
Amari Cooper has been one of the best surprises this season. At home, he has posted the following numbers:
Week 2 vs Jets: 9-101-1
Week 3 vs Steelers: 7-101-1
Week 5 vs Chargers: 7-76-1
Week 6 vs Patriots: 4-44-1
Week 8 vs Bengals: 5-131-1
The man loves himself some Cleveland.
Oh, here are his road games if you are curious:
Week 1 at Panthers: 3-17-0
Week 4 at Falcons: 1-9-0
Week 7 at Ravens: 3-74-0
Week 10 at Dolphins: 3-32-0
Right?
Look, part of playing fantasy football is determining future output based on what has happened in the past, and all I can say is that Amari Cooper is on fire at FirstEnergy Stadium and ice-cold on the road. Take it for what it is, but after ten weeks that’s a good sample size.
Tight end to sit in Week 11
Tyler Higbee (LAR) vs New Orleans Saints
Last week Tyler Higbee was in my starts, and that was entirely based on the matchup. Well, now he is in my sits because he is taking on the Saints and their no.2 defense against fantasy tight ends. For a few exceptions, they have shut down this position all year long.
There’s also the worry that the Rams offense, which is already running on fumes, may entirely collapse in this game without Kupp. I would love nothing more as a Niners fan. We saw the Saints handle the Raiders at home handily, and we may see the same against a defeated Rams team.
