Week 12 Busts — The Fantasy Files

Week 12 Busts: Jimmy Garoppolo will be missing weapons and has a really tough matchup, making him one to avoid this week.

IN THE WEEKLY FANTASY UNIT, THERE ARE CRIMES COMMITTED THAT WOULD SHOCK AND APPALL YOU: NEGATIVE POINTS, UNDERWHELMING SUPERSTARS AND OUTRIGHT BUSTS. THESE ARE THE FINDINGS OF ONE MAN ON A MISSION TO EXPOSE THE NFL’S BIGGEST PERPETRATORS BEFORE THEY STRIKE AGAIN. THESE ARE … THE FANTASY FILES

Welcome everyone to Week 12 of the 2019 NFL Season! This past week was a proud one here at the precinct because we went a perfect six for six on our picks! We always pride ourselves on giving you all the best possible information to save you from lineup heartbreak, and we couldn’t be more proud to have been dead-on in Week 11. Let’s take a look at last weeks suspects:

WHERE WE HIT:

• CARSON WENTZ (12 points)
  • The Eagles quarterback came into Sunday’s marquee match-up with the New England Patriots missing his top receiving option and lead running back. The result of those omissions was a predictable one. Wentz and the Eagles offense struggled mightily against the Patriots secondary for three of four quarters, and his fantasy value suffered because of it. Wentz could be a solid bounce-back candidate in Week 12 against a more approachable Seattle secondary.
• SONY MICHEL (5 points)
  • Death, taxes, and unreliable Patriots running backs for fantasy football. The song remained the same on Sunday for Sony Michel, as the Patriots offense struggled to move the ball on the ground against an aggressive Philadelphia front. With James White and Rex Burkhead being utilized along with Michel, the three-headed committee approach drastically lowers the value of all three players.
• ZACH PASCAL (2 points)
  • With Jacoby Brissett struggling through a knee injury and the Colts top WR (T.Y. Hilton) still on the bench, things were set to be difficult for Pascal against the Jags in Week 11. The young wide-out had shown glimmers of potential over the past month, but ultimately he could not overcome the Colts injury woes and a match-up with AJ Bouye. With Hilton likely to return this Thursday, Pascal’s value takes a major hit moving forward.
• OJ HOWARD (0 points)
  • The one certainty with the Tight End position in fantasy football is that nothing is certain. OJ Howard has gone from a consensus Top 5 player at the position heading into 2019 drafts to a waiver wire risk. He showed exactly why fantasy owners have dropped him en masse on Sunday afternoon. Howard registered just one target on the day, which he subsequently fumbled away in the most ridiculous way imaginable. Cameron Brate took over 100% of the team’s TE target share from that point on, and there’s little reason to believe Howard will earn a bigger slice of the pie in the last month+ of the season. He is unquestionably one of the biggest busts of the year.
• HOUSTON D/ST (-3 Points)
  • We’re reaching a point where starting any defense against the Baltimore Ravens offense should be looked at as an attempt to tank. The Houston Texans were coming off of their bye week feeling good about themselves. They had single-handedly ended Minshew-Mania in Jacksonville, and they were set to host a battle of MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. What ended up happening was the football equivalent of a blitzkrieg strike. Baltimore decimated Houston in virtually every significant statistic and left the Houston defense in the negative for fantasy purposes. This is a talented enough group to stream against a good match-up, but this past week was a reminder to steer clear of anyone facing Jackson and company this year.
• KYLE ALLEN (9 points)
  • The Kyle Allen grace period in Carolina officially ended on Sunday afternoon. The unheralded back-up had ridden the otherworldly talent of Christian McCaffrey and a few above-average showings to a winning record under center, but there was always a feeling that he wasn’t truly ready to be the leader of this team. That feeling was brought to fruition on Sunday, as Allen was intercepted four times against the resurgent Atlanta Falcons. Allen looked flat out lost at multiple times in this game, and Atlanta took full advantage of his relative lack of experience. It was a fun ride while it lasted, but Allen can safely be placed back on the shelf with the other knock off brand back-ups for fantasy purposes.

WHERE WE MISSED:

• NO ONE!

Now, with that taken care of, let’s see who made the list this week:

Week 12 Busts

QUARTERBACK: JIMMY GAROPPOLO (San Francisco 49ers)

Jimmy G is our bust selection at quarterback heading into Week 12 primarily because of a perceived lack of talent surrounding him. The 49ers second-year starter is currently set to potentially miss receivers Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel, and running back Matt Breida for a prime time Sunday Night Football match-up with the Green Bay Packers.

San Francisco gets the benefit of playing Aaron Rodgers and company in the friendly confines of  Levi’s Stadium, but Garoppolo’s up and down season can be traced directly back to the health of those around him. Sanders, Samuel, and Breida each represent arguably the best players at their respective positions for the Niners, and without them, we expect to see Kyle Shanahan try to take the ball out of Jimmy G’s hands as often as possible en lieu of the running game on Sunday.

It’s a tough match-up with a young and hungry Packers defense, and we don’t like Garoppolo’s odds to post a decent point total without his best guys around him.

RUNNING BACK: CHRIS CARSON (Seattle Seahawks)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. When it comes to starting running backs and the Philadelphia Eagles defensive line, the story has been pretty one-sided for the entire 2019 season.

With the exception of one player (Ezekiel Elliott), the Eagles defense has shut-down every other running back they’ve come up against. Carson is a certified break-out talent, and Pete Carroll will afford him opportunities to test himself in this match-up, but ultimately Seattle will adjust to attack Philly’s vulnerable secondary when it counts.

In a game where we expect Russell Wilson to extend plays with his feet and drop bombs downfield throughout, we find it hard to locate a clear path to fantasy explosion for Carson.

WIDE RECEIVER: GOLDEN TATE (New York Giants)

This game is just a flat out mess on both sides. On the Chicago Bears side, you have the ongoing “will they/won’t they” break-up between the team and Mitch Trubisky. On the Giants side, you have the non-stop turnover woes of Daniel Jones and the injuries to Saquon Barkley. While Trubisky is unlikely to play on Sunday, Jones and Barkley should take the field for the G Men.

The Giants are also set to return Sterling Shepard to the field after being locked in the concussion protocol for most of the past month. A tough as nails matchup with a desperate Bears defense and the return of Shepard to the fold spells nothing but trouble for Golden Tate in this one. His target share will be cut into with Shepard back, and he’ll likely be shadowed by Kyle Fuller throughout the contest. Limit your expectations for Tate in this one, he’s a fine FLEX option at best.

TIGHT END: JIMMY GRAHAM (Green Bay Packers)

Jumping back into the Sunday Night Football matchup for a moment, let’s discuss Jimmy Graham. The former All-Pro has been the definition of an up & down waiver wire target so far this season with Green Bay. Graham has found the end zone just twice all year, and his target share has hovered around (3 to 4 targets) per contest for most of the season. That limited target share will only continue to shrink as Davante Adams gets healthier in his return from a turf toe injury.

The 49ers bring the league’s top-ranked defense against the TE position to this contest, and you want no part of that equation. Leave Graham out on the waiver wire for someone else to deal with in Week 12.

DEFENSE: NEW YORK JETS D/ST

The Jets defense has been a savvy waiver wire pick-up for owners in need over the past three weeks. With matchups against the Miami Dolphins/New York Giants and Washington Redskins, it was hard not to love them as a low cost add. The unit rewarded owners who added them with three straight above-average fantasy performances, but it is officially time to let them go.

Do not allow yourself to be lulled into believing this is a good defense, the Jets secondary is arguably the worst in the NFL this year, and their run defense isn’t much better. A lack of quality competition and three straight Rookie/Journeyman QB’s can make any group look competent, and that’s exactly what has happened here.

This week the Jets defense will struggle against the surprisingly potent land/air assault of the Oakland Raiders. Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Josh Jacobs should have a field day, and Derek Carr should have plenty of time to make his throws behind a much improved offensive line. Let someone else trust this unit in Week 12, don’t let it be you.

PRIMARY SUSPECT: JAMEIS WINSTON (Tampa Bay Bucs)

Our primary suspect for Week 12 is a familiar face to the precinct. Our old pal Jameis Winston returns to the run-down at it’s most esteemed position ahead of his match-up with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. He shows up here because we’re not sure fantasy fans understand just how dangerous this game could be for him.

The Atlanta Falcons have risen from the grave since their Week 9 bye, and have looked like the hungry, motivated, division contending team most people expected them to be before the 2019 season started. They shocked the world and demolished the New Orleans Saints in Week 10, and just last week they ended the Kyle Allen hype train in Carolina with a (29-3) blowout victory. Atlanta has outscored it’s last two opponents (both divisional rivals) by a combined total of (54/12), and they’ve racked up 11 sacks/4 ints and a return TD in the process.

For his part of the equation, Winston will walk into Week 12 with a TD/INT ratio of (19/18), and a sack total of  36 on the year. Tampa Bay is the 28^th ranked offense in the league in defending their QB (Winston gets sacked an average of 3 times per game).

Winston’s game is all about moving in the pocket and holding onto the ball for the deep pass down field. Because of this, opposing defenses are routinely able to read his progressions and either intercept his passes or strip the ball away from him during prolonged drop backs.

Winston will face a hungry and motivated Falcons defense on Sunday that his offense has no clue how to stop. It’s a textbook recipe for a fantasy disaster, and it’s one that makes him worthy of our primary suspect label for Week 12.