Thanksgiving football is finally upon us. As usual, we start in Detroit as they host their divisional rivals, the Packers. Thanksgiving football means that the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner. Make sure to make that extra push to get your team there. Something new this year is Black Friday football. Not sure how I feel about it yet, but hey, it’s another day to watch the NFL, so it’s got to be great. Good luck to everyone on Thursday, and I hope you all have a great holiday.
Week 11 Game Ball: Odell Beckham Jr. – 4 catches for 116 receiving yards
A once-forgotten star of the NFL is currently in the middle of his comeback season. Not only did he record his first 100-yard game since 2019, but he has also had two touchdowns in the last three weeks. They may be a run-first offense, but there is no shortage of points this Ravens offense can score. With it looking like Mark Andrews will miss some time, that should free up more targets for OBJ.
Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Detroit Lions (8-2)
The Starts
Elite Starts
These are my locked-in starts that you never need to think twice about. Just put them in and watch the magic happen.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – We’ll start right at the top here. You can’t get any more elite and consistent than St. Brown. Even with missing a game earlier in the season, St. Brown is on pace for 124 receptions and 1,526.6 yards. You can’t ask for much more from your high-end talent. Green Bay currently ranks 7th in the league in total receiving yards and is tied for 2nd in total receiving touchdowns given up. While Detroit will probably focus more on the run this game, I still expect St. Brown to find the end zone.
Projection: 6 catches for 83 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs – Montgomery and Gibbs have created the perfect ying to the yang in the Detroit backfield. They both compliment each other perfectly, with Gibbs receiving capabilities and Montgomery’s ability to run between the tackles. They get a perfect match-up this week against a Packers defense that gives up 134.7 rushing yards and just about one rushing touchdown per game. The Packers are coming off a game where they gave up 6.4 yards per carry to Austin Ekeler. I expect both Gibbs and Montgomery to find their way into the endzone for the third straight week.
Projection:
Montgomery – 1 catch for 101 all-purpose yards and 1 touchdown
Gibbs – 6 catches for 95 all-purpose yards and 1 touchdown
Solid Starts
These are the starts you shouldn’t be nervous about but certainly aren’t locked in for top-tier production.
Jared Goff – Goff has had a steady season so far this year. With only one week with single-digit fantasy points, he has rarely won a week for you, but he certainly won’t lose one for you either. He gets a tough test this week against a Packers pass defense that ranks 7th in the league in yards given up per game at 208.20. In a Week 4 victory over the Packers, Goff only put up 210 yards and one touchdown. The Lions’ defense played a big part in that win, and it looks like the Packers’ offense might be turning it around here. While they will still rely heavily on the run, look for Goff to be needed more than usual this week.
Projection: 275 passing yards and 2 touchdowns
Flex Worthy Starts
They are worth a start, but no one is going to blame you if you want to bench them.
Jordan Love – Love is starting to get some momentum here, and I’m not just saying this as a Packers fan. He has four straight games with over 225 passing yards and two straight games with multiple touchdowns. While his rushing hasn’t been there the past few weeks, he has been making it up through the air. Last week was the first time since Week 2 that Love threw for multiple touchdowns and had zero interceptions.
Another thing that I appreciate is that for as many times he gets hits, he’s making sure to hold on to that ball. Sacks resulting in fumbles are an absolute killer for a quarterback’s confidence. Green Bay will need to do whatever they can to keep up with this Detroit offense. As long as the Packers can keep rookie sensation Aidan Hutchinson in check, Love should find plenty of time to make some plays. That’s a tall task to ask for, though. Put him in your Superflex spot if you have one; otherwise, look elsewhere for someone who has been more consistent throughout the season.
Projection: 230 passing yards, 15 rushing yards, and 2 touchdowns
AJ Dillion – With Aaron Jones suffering another injury this year, it looks like he’ll be out for Thursday’s game. Dillion has been far from impressive when Jones has been out, but opportunity is always key in fantasy. The Lions are 4th in the league against running backs, only giving up 62.3 rushing yards per game. On the plus side, they are also giving up 3.4 catches and 34 yards per game to the position. It may not be an efficient day for him, but he should be able to get enough done to be relevant.
Projection: 2 catches for 78 all-purpose yards
Sam LaPorta – LaPorta has been on a bit of a rough patch the last two weeks, combing for seven catches for 58 yards. That isn’t terrible, but those aren’t the numbers we came to expect from the rookie based on how the first half of his season started. Green Bay has been solid against the position, only giving up 48.2 yards per game to the position. I anticipate LaPorta will be held in check for most of the game while the Lions focus on Amon-ra and their run game.
Projection: 4 catches for 42 receiving yards
Jayden Reed/Christian Watson/Romeo Doubs – The Packers have yet to showcase a clearly defined WR1 on their team. It seems to be someone new each week. In Week 11, all three of these guys had a touchdown but pretty average receiving yards. Most were hoping that Watson would make the leap this year, but it looks like it may be week-to-week who the top option is on the team. I’ll be curious how they handle the draft in April. Based on their history, they won’t be putting much draft capital into a wide receiver and just roll with what they have going into 2024.
Projection:
Reed – 4 catches for 78 all-purpose yards and 1 touchdown
Watson – 3 catches for 45 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
Doubs – 4 catches for 52 receiving yards
Break Glass in Case of Emergency Starts
Starts that will have questionable usage, and you are just hoping you can sneak a touchdown out of them. Pick your poison.
- Emanuel Wilson
- Josh Reynolds
- Kalif Raymond
- Jameson Williams (I need back-to-back weeks of productions before I feel good about putting in him the flex spot)
- Tucker Kraft
- Dontayvion Wicks
San Francisco 49ers (7-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
The Starts
Elite Starts
These are my locked-in starts that you never need to think twice about. Just put them in and watch the magic happen.
Christian McCaffrey – CMC might be the fantasy MVP so far this season in a close race with Tyreek Hill. He has at least three receptions in every game and has only scored under 20 points in PPR formats in two games. He has also been on a touchdown rampage this year with 15. He has been match-up proof most of his career, even when he was on the Panthers. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the CMC train while you digest your Thanksgiving meal.
Projection: 4 catches for 120 all-purpose yards and 1 touchdown
George Kittle – Kittle is on a 4-game hot streak right now. He was once considered a streaky player due to too many mouths to feed on the team and has now entered the elite category for tight ends. Seattle is currently giving up 5.3 receptions and 54.2 yards per game to the tight end position. At the rate he’s been going, I’m banking on him getting the over on both of those.
Projection: 6 catches for 68 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
Solid Starts
These are the starts you shouldn’t be nervous about but certainly aren’t locked in for top-tier production.
Brock Purdy – Coming off back-to-back three touchdown games, Purdy shouldn’t have any trouble replicating this again against Seattle. The 49ers seem to be fully heavy and ready to wreak havoc on any opponent that comes their way. Having the most complete set of weapons in the league, Purdy and the 49ers should have no problem rolling against the Seahawks.
Projection: 315 passing yards and 3 touchdowns
Brandon Aiyuk – In year four, it looks like Aiyuk is finally having that big breakout season everyone has been waiting for. Aiyuk currently ranks 10th in the league in receiving yards and is on pace to reach 1,413 yards on the season. He isn’t the monster PPR guy like Kenaan Allen and Michael Pittman, but he is that big play guy to get you those yards after the catch. On a nationally televised game, I expect the 49ers to pull out all the tricks for their elite players. If he has a few more of these boom games, it may be time to put him in the “Elite Starts” category.
Projection: 5 catches for 98 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
Zach Charbonnet– -The 2023 second-round pick will finally get his time to shine, with Ken Walker trending in the direction of not suiting up on Thursday. While we have only seen him in limited fashion in the NFL, the guy was a monster at UCLA. In his final two seasons, he accumulated 3,014 total yards and averaged 6.3 yards a carry. I understand playing in the NFL is a whole different animal, but I think this guy has what it takes to have a workhorse role. If he does succeed, it will be interesting to see how it plays out when Walker returns.
Projection:4 catches for 102 all-purpose yards
DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett – While both these guys have a solid floor, neither have surpassed 25 points in PPR formats yet this year. The 49ers are currently allowing 168.3 yards per game to the wide receiver position. With Geno Smith potentially hampered from his injury last week, I think it might be tough for both of these guys to pop off. It’ll most likely be a matter of picking the right one.
Projection:
Metcalf – 3 catches for 55 receiving yards
Lockett – 6 catches for 80 receiving yards
Flex Worthy Starts
They are worth a start, but no one is going to blame you if you want to bench them.
Deebo Samuel – It has been an injury-riddled season for Samuel. He has missed three games and has had some gooseeggs on games where he seemed to be just used as a decoy. While this isn’t the rebound season we were hoping for from him, he puts up a solid baseline for the flex spot when healthy. There are plenty of mouths to feed in San Francisco, so it’s tough to predict when each player will get their boom game. With the way Kittle, Aiyuk, and CMC have been playing, it’s tough for Samuel to get enough opportunities to be a top-end play.
Projection: 4 catches for 68 all-purpose yards
Break Glass in Case of Emergency Starts
Starts that will have questionable usage, and you are just hoping you can sneak a touchdown out of them. Pick your poison.
- Geno Smith
- DeeJay Dallas
- Jake Bobo
- Noah Fant/Will Dissly
- Elijah Mitchell
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Washington Commanders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
The Starts
Elite Starts
These are my locked-in starts that you never need to think twice about. Just put them in and watch the magic happen.
Dak Prescott
Projection: 325 passing yards and 3 touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb
Projection: 10 catches for 122 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
Solid Starts
These are the starts you shouldn’t be nervous about, but certainly aren’t locked in for top tier production.
Sam Howell
Projection: 225 passing yards and 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions
Brian Robinson Jr.
Projection: 2 catches for 91 all-purpose yards
Jake Ferguson
Projection: 5 catches for 59 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
Logan Thomas
Projection: 5 catches for 49 receiving yards
Tony Pollard
Projection: 3 catches for 110 all-purpose yards and 1 touchdown
Flex Worthy Starts
They are worth a start, but no one is going to blame you if you want to bench them.
Projection: 5 catches for 63 all-purpose yards
Projection: 3 catches for 59 receiving yards
Terry McLaurin/Jahan Dotson
Projection:
McLaurin – 4 catches for 52 receiving yards
Dotson – 3 catches for 42 receiving yards and 1 touchdown
Break Glass in Case of Emergency Starts
Starts that will have questionable usage, and you are just hoping you can sneak a touchdown out of them. Pick your poison.
- Curtis Samuel
- Rico Dowdle
- Michael Gallup
ATTENTION! 5th Down is moving to Substack
After April 1, 2024, 5th Down Fantasy will be operating via Substack. Please subscribe now for free to receive future articles, which will be accessible on Substack and emailed to you directly. If you can spare a few dollars, you can also enjoy the benefits that our existing paid Substack subscribers receive, including our award-winning fantasy football player rankings, weekend playbook email, additional advice and analysis articles, and more. LEARN MORE
Other Articles
AJ Dillon (groin) questionable for Week 12
Jonah Jackson (wrist) ruled out for Week 12
